4:10 York
This Class 2 Sky Bet handicap over 1m2f56y at York on good ground brings together a field of 16 with plenty of depth. The KTB Fit Scores are headed by the veteran Astro King on 70, followed by City Of Delight on 63, Antipodes on 60, Rathgar on 56 and Rainbow Nebula on 55, suggesting the principals hold the strongest claims on current form and trainer-jockey combinations. With a mix of progressive types stepping up in class and more experienced campaigners, the race looks competitive and will test both stamina and adaptability to the trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a truly-run contest with several prominent runners likely to contest the early lead. Astro King tends to race prominently from his draw in stall 7, while Rathgar and Dark Moon Rising are also forward-going types. City Of Delight and Antipodes can track the pace, and the key question is whether the leaders will set fractions that allow the hold-up performers such as Rainbow Nebula and Spioradalta to close effectively late on, or if the race will be decided from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Astro King KTB Selection70/100Astro King is a useful performer with a solid York record including a win from six runs here.
- 2City Of Delight63/100Useful performer who has won six times over today's trip from twelve attempts and acts well on good ground with three wins and two placings from six starts.
- 3Antipodes60/100Antipodes looks a useful performer on the back of recent form figures of 821-1 and has been lightly raced with only four career starts.
- 4Rathgar56/100Rathgar is a useful performer who arrives in form after two recent wins.
- 5Rainbow Nebula55/100Fair performer who has shown a mix of results this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts.
- 6Castle Stuart53/100Fair performer who has shown some promise around here without winning, finishing third on his most recent visit to the track.
- 7Urban Glimpse52/100Urban Glimpse is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing placed on three of his last five starts at this trip.
- 8Love Beach51/100Useful performer who arrives in form after a win and a solid third on her last two starts.
- 9Fantasy Believer49/100Fantasy Believer is a useful performer with a solid career record that includes four wins at today's trip.
- 10Spioradalta49/100Useful performer who has won six times at today's trip and handles good ground.
- 11Cloth Of Gold47/100Cloth Of Gold is a fair performer who showed useful placed form over this trip on his last two starts before a break.
- 12Dark Moon Rising45/100Fair performer who has won once in 18 runs at York and handles good ground well with three wins from 13 starts.
- 13Altareq44/100Altareq is a fair sort who has run creditably in both starts this year without progressing.
- 14Per Contra43/100Per Contra is a fair handicapper who has run creditably at this track without winning, finishing second and third in stronger races here.
- 15Sportingsilvermine43/100Sportingsilvermine is a fair performer who ran poorly for most of this year before snapping a long losing run last time.
- 16Wahdan40/100Useful performer who has failed to land a blow in three starts this season and looks up against it from the widest draw.
The contenders
Astro King KTB Fit 70/100
Astro King is a useful performer with a solid York record that includes a win from six runs at the track. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m1f yet has won at this distance before and has placed twice from seven starts on good ground. The Kubler yard posts an 8% strike rate from 25 runs at the track while jockey Alec Voikhansky shows a strong 23% from 13 rides. Recent form figures of 2490/0 reflect a modest return but his course-and-distance ability and the trainer-jockey combination keep him firmly in the picture. From a mid-division draw he should be able to race prominently and his placed efforts on good ground underline his competitiveness.
City Of Delight KTB Fit 63/100
City Of Delight is a useful performer who has won six times over today's trip from twelve attempts and acts well on good ground with three wins and two placings from six starts. Recent form of 05282 shows consistency without winning and the yard's 15% strike rate from 40 runs at York offers encouragement. First run here from stall 12 adds an unknown element while the jockey's solid 10% record from 503 rides at the track is worth noting. Silvestre De Sousa teams up with the Menuisier stable that has produced an 8/37 record with this combination and the horse's proven stamina at the trip should serve him well in a race that is set to be truly run.
Antipodes KTB Fit 60/100
Antipodes looks a useful performer on the back of recent form figures of 821-1 and has been lightly raced with only four career starts. The step up from 1m to 1m2¼f today asks a fresh question while the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence. Trainer Varian has an 11 percent strike rate from 263 runs at York whereas jockey Dawson is operating at a 20 percent strike rate from 35 rides here. Stepping up in class adds another layer but the progressive profile cannot be ignored and Ray Dawson's record at the track gives the partnership a positive angle. From draw 9 he should be able to settle into a handy position.
Rathgar KTB Fit 56/100
Rathgar is a useful performer who arrives in form after two recent wins. He has been placed on both his last visits to York and acts on good ground having won twice from seven starts on it. The trip is no issue as he has three wins from 13 starts at this distance. James Doyle teams up with the Jack Channon stable that shows a 3/15 record together and the jockey's 14% strike rate at York adds further strength. His placed efforts at the track and current winning streak make him a major player if he can secure a good early position from stall 5.
Rainbow Nebula KTB Fit 55/100
Rainbow Nebula is a fair performer who has shown a mix of results this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts. Drawn wide in stall 15 and making first start at York where the yard has an 8% strike-rate from 13 runs. Suited by good ground having won once from two starts on it though unproven at this trip. Billy Garritty rides for the Fahey team that has produced a 3/17 record with this combination and the colt's recent placed form suggests he can be competitive if he overcomes the wide draw. His ability to race prominently could be an asset in the expected truly-run race.
The rest of the field
Castle StuartKTB Fit 53/100
Castle Stuart is a fair performer who has shown some promise around here without winning, finishing third on his most recent visit to the track. He drops back in trip today having been out of the frame on his last three starts and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard has a solid record at York but the jockey's strike rate here is low.
Urban GlimpseKTB Fit 52/100
Urban Glimpse is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing placed on three of his last five starts at this trip. He has shown up well at York, finishing second on his only visit here, and acts on good ground having been placed twice from three runs. First-time headgear is now added after two solid efforts this season.
Love BeachKTB Fit 51/100
Love Beach is a useful performer who arrives in form after a win and a solid third on her last two starts. She acts on good ground with two wins from four runs and has already won at this trip. First time at York for both her and the yard which has a modest 9% strike rate here while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from nine rides at the track.
Fantasy BelieverKTB Fit 49/100
Fantasy Believer is a useful performer with a solid career record that includes four wins at today's trip. He has won once and placed four times from ten starts on good ground while his recent form of 37160- shows flashes of ability mixed with lesser efforts. The yard holds a 10% strike rate at York from 156 runs yet the jockey remains winless from six rides here and this is the horse's first run at the track.
SpioradaltaKTB Fit 49/100
Spioradalta is a useful performer who has won six times at today's trip and handles good ground. York record reads placed but no win from four starts and he is drawn wide in stall 14 today. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track.
Cloth Of GoldKTB Fit 47/100
Cloth Of Gold is a fair performer who showed useful placed form over this trip on his last two starts before a break. He has won once from three runs at today's distance and holds solid course connections through his trainer. The yard's modest 3% strike rate from 91 runs at York is a negative though Beasley brings a stronger 10% record from 250 rides here.
Dark Moon RisingKTB Fit 45/100
Dark Moon Rising is a fair performer who has won once in 18 runs at York and handles good ground well with three wins from 13 starts. Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip where he has been placed but never won raises a fresh question while his recent form has been ordinary. Trainer's 8% strike rate from over a thousand runs at the track is modest and the claiming jockey is still seeking his first York winner from 22 rides.
AltareqKTB Fit 44/100
Altareq is a fair sort who has run creditably in both starts this year without progressing. He has placed all three times at today's trip though steps back up in distance from a recent 1m run and the move looks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at York from a big sample and the jockey's 0% record from 11 rides add to the negatives here.
Per ContraKTB Fit 43/100
Per Contra is a fair handicapper who has run creditably at this track without winning, finishing second and third in stronger races here. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and three furlongs and holds a solid record at this distance with one win from nine attempts. The Tim Easterby yard has a modest 6% strike rate from over 2000 runs at York while David Allan fares slightly better at 7% from 884 rides.
SportingsilvermineKTB Fit 43/100
Sportingsilvermine is a fair performer who ran poorly for most of this year before snapping a long losing run last time. He has a York run under his belt but showed little there, and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement. A 1-9 record at today's trip is a positive yet his overall record on good ground is ordinary.
WahdanKTB Fit 40/100
Wahdan is a useful performer who has failed to land a blow in three starts this season and looks up against it from the widest draw. He has never won or placed on good ground from five attempts and remains winless in five runs at this trip. The trainer has had too few runners at York to judge while the jockeys modest 2% strike rate here adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Astro King is the KTB Selection and his proven ability at York, including a previous win at the track, combined with a strong jockey record at the venue, makes him the one to beat. He has the right run style to take a prominent position and his experience at the trip and on good ground adds further layers to his case. The main dangers are City Of Delight, whose excellent record at the trip and yard's healthy strike rate at York make him a major threat, and Antipodes, whose progressive profile and jockey's fine record at the track cannot be dismissed despite the step up in trip and class. Rathgar and Rainbow Nebula are also capable of playing leading roles if the race shape falls their way.
KTB Selection Astro King
This is the narrative read of the 4:10 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest York course record among the principals?
Astro King has a win from six runs at York.
How many wins has City Of Delight recorded at today's trip?
City Of Delight has won six times over today's trip from twelve attempts.
What is the recent form of the KTB Selection Astro King?
Recent form figures of 2490/0.
Which runner is making its first start at York from a wide draw?
Rainbow Nebula is drawn in stall 15 and making first start at York.
Which horses are trying first-time headgear in this race?
Castle Stuart and Urban Glimpse are both trying first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies