4:12 Downpatrick
This is a small-field rated novice hurdle over 2m5f185y at Downpatrick where the principals are tightly matched on KTB Fit Scores ranging from 58 down to 37. The race features several smart and useful performers with recent placed efforts or wins, though questions remain around the unknown ground for all and the step up or drop in trip for a few. Gordon Elliott holds a strong 18% strike rate at the track from 922 runs while Willie Mullins posts a solid 28% here from 257 attempts, setting up an intriguing contest among horses that have shown ability at this level.
How the race shapes up
With a field of just six and several prominent or front-running types in the mix, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on before possibly quickening from the middle of the race. Playtime and Surfin Usa can both take a keen hold while Gangster Granny and Lemmy Caution have shown versatility in their run styles. The key question will be whether the trip proves a step too far for some or if the unknown ground exposes any weaknesses, with the race potentially won from a handy position or through strong travelling ability in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Playtime KTB Selection58/100Smart performer who arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts and a solid seventh last time.
- 2Surfin Usa57/100Smart performer who has won both starts since joining Mullins, including over this trip and at this track.
- 3Gangster Granny51/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs at each.
- 4Lemmy Caution48/100Lemmy Caution has shown fairly consistent form, finishing in the first three on four of his six starts including a win at this trip range last time.
- 5Butch Coolidge45/100Useful performer who won over today's trip on his most recent start.
- 6Written In My Soul37/100Fair performer who has struggled badly of late with three pulled-up efforts from his last four starts.
The contenders
Playtime KTB Fit 58/100
Playtime is a smart performer who arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts and a solid seventh last time out. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the ground remains unknown. Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy both operate at a good strike rate round Downpatrick, with the yard posting 18% from 922 runs and the jockey 19% from 165 rides. His recent form of 0-6327 underlines his competitiveness at this level and the combination of trainer and jockey gives him every chance of going well. The KTB Fit Score of 58 underlines his claims as the selection.
Surfin Usa KTB Fit 57/100
Surfin Usa is a smart performer who has won both starts since joining Mullins, including over this trip and at this track. His course form reads one win from one run and his trip record is also one from one. Willie Mullins has a solid 28% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample of 257 runs though the jockey Brian Hayes is operating at just 6% here from 127 rides. Recent form of 2/7-1 highlights his progression and he must be respected given the yard's record at the venue. The KTB Fit Score of 57 places him right in the mix.
Gangster Granny KTB Fit 51/100
Gangster Granny is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs at each. Her recent form of 30-152 shows she can mix it at this level though she is not the most consistent. Trainer C A McBratney and jockey Darragh O'Keeffe both have modest strike rates here with the yard on 7% from 295 runs and the rider 10% from 152 rides. She is unproven on the ground and tries first-time headgear now. The KTB Fit Score of 51 keeps her as a live contender in a race where consistency could be key.
Lemmy Caution KTB Fit 48/100
Lemmy Caution has shown fairly consistent form, finishing in the first three on four of his six starts including a win at this trip range last time. The drop back from 3m poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is now added. Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate from 922 runs here and Sam Ewing a 16% strike rate from 55 rides. His recent form of 336-13 underlines his reliability at this sort of level. With a KTB Fit Score of 48 he remains capable of playing a part if the trip suits.
The rest of the field
Butch CoolidgeKTB Fit 45/100
Butch Coolidge is a useful performer who won over today's trip on his most recent start. He was well held over a shorter distance here last time though and the yard and rider are both still seeking their first Downpatrick success from 20 runs and 19 rides respectively. First-time headgear is now fitted and his KTB Fit Score of 45 reflects a more modest profile in this company.
Written In My SoulKTB Fit 37/100
Written In My Soul is a fair performer who has struggled badly of late with three pulled-up efforts from his last four starts. He drops back in trip today having been well held over three miles last time and tries headgear for the first time while making his debut at this track. The trainer has yet to record a winner from seven runs here and the KTB Fit Score of 37 confirms his position at the bottom of the pile.
KTB verdict
Playtime looks to hold the strongest hand as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 58 and the benefit of the Elliott and Kennedy combination that knows its way around Downpatrick well. He has shown enough in recent placed efforts to suggest he can cope with the step up in trip and the unknown ground should not be a major issue given his profile. Surfin Usa is the obvious danger having already won over course and distance for Mullins, while Gangster Granny and Lemmy Caution cannot be dismissed if the headgear brings improvement or the drop back in trip suits.
KTB Selection Playtime
This is the narrative read of the 4:12 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over course and distance?
Surfin Usa has course form of one from one and trip record of one from one, having won here over this trip.
What is Gordon Elliott's strike rate at Downpatrick?
Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 922 runs with an A/E of 0.89.
Which runners are trying headgear for the first time?
Gangster Granny, Lemmy Caution, Butch Coolidge and Written In My Soul are all fitted with first-time headgear.
How many pulled-up efforts has Written In My Soul had from his last four starts?
Written In My Soul has three pulled-up efforts from his last four starts.
Who has the highest strike rate at Downpatrick among the trainers in this race?
Willie Mullins has a 28% strike rate at Downpatrick from 257 runs.
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