4:12 Uttoxeter
This Class 2 handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter over 2m7f70y on good ground brings together a competitive field of nine where the majority are stepping up in class. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Zillow heading the ratings on 70 despite modest recent form, followed closely by Roger Pol, Shallow River and Karnaval Point. With the pace shape rated unclear due to limited run-style evidence across the field, the race poses questions about both trip suitability for several runners and how the first-time headgear applied to multiple contenders will be received.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style data to form a firm view on how the race will unfold. Idaho Fire is the only horse with a noted tendency to race prominently and could take up the running or race on the pace. Most of the field, including Roger Pol who is usually held up, lack strong evidence on their positioning, meaning the race could develop in any number of ways and the key question is which horse will be best suited by the resulting rhythm.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Zillow KTB Selection70/100Zillow is a high-class performer on the balance of ratings and past race history but arrives in modest recent form after a string of poor efforts.
- 2Roger Pol68/100Roger Pol is a high-class performer with a solid record here, winning two of his five starts at Uttoxeter.
- 3Shallow River67/100High-class performer with a solid recent record that includes a win at today's trip.
- 4Karnaval Point65/100High-class performer who has already won over this course and acts on good ground having scored twice from three starts.
- 5Paddy De Pole53/100Smart performer who has already placed over this trip and looks suited by the step up in distance.
- 6Tyson53/100Smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two seconds in decent company.
- 7Idaho Fire53/100Smart performer who showed his true level with a clear-cut win at this track last time.
- 8Pike Road51/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 9Divilabother48/100Smart performer who has won his last three starts and arrives in excellent order.
The contenders
Zillow KTB Fit 70/100
Zillow is a high-class performer on the balance of ratings and past race history but arrives in modest recent form after a string of poor efforts. The step up to 2m7f poses a fresh question having last run over 2m1f, while the yard’s 23% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 13 runs offers encouragement. Only one run on good ground provides limited evidence of going suitability. Trainer Faye Bramley and jockey Harry Cobden combine with a 10/31 record that has produced an A/E of 1.19 and a healthy level-stakes profit of +£8.42. The selection has no previous course form on record.
Roger Pol KTB Fit 68/100
Roger Pol is a high-class performer with a solid record here, winning two of his five starts at Uttoxeter. He has won three times from six starts at this trip and boasts six wins from 15 runs on good ground, so conditions look suitable. The first-time headgear is an unknown but the overall profile suggests he remains a strong contender. Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 17% strike rate at the track from 200 runs while jockey Isabelle Ryder, claiming 5lb, holds a 16% strike rate from 19 rides at Uttoxeter. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, though evidence is limited.
Shallow River KTB Fit 67/100
Shallow River is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes a win at today's trip. He has placed twice from eight starts on good ground and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. Trainer Olly Murphy holds a 21% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 387 runs while jockey Sean Bowen is making his first appearance at the track. The combination of trainer and jockey shows a 25% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97. He steps up in class having been competitive without winning on good ground.
Karnaval Point KTB Fit 65/100
Karnaval Point is a high-class performer who has already won over this course and acts on good ground having scored twice from three starts. He drops back from 3m to 2m7f today having failed to score in one previous try at the trip, and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer David Pipe has a solid 16% strike rate from 547 runs at Uttoxeter while the 5lb claimer Rian Corcoran is aboard with a 27% strike rate from 11 rides at the track. The yard and jockey combine for a 27% strike rate overall with an A/E of 1.40.
The rest of the field
Paddy De PoleKTB Fit 53/100
Paddy De Pole is a smart performer who has already placed over this trip and looks suited by the step up in distance. Good ground clearly suits with four wins from 11 starts and he showed his well-being when runner-up last time. First-time headgear is an unknown but the yard’s 20% strike-rate at Uttoxeter adds confidence.
TysonKTB Fit 53/100
Tyson is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two seconds in decent company. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the yard has a strong 23% strike rate at Uttoxeter from a big sample. Has been competitive on good ground without winning on it.
Idaho FireKTB Fit 53/100
Idaho Fire is a smart performer who showed his true level with a clear-cut win at this track last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question but his pedigree and progressive profile suggest he will handle it. Trainer has a solid 28% strike rate here from 57 runs.
Pike RoadKTB Fit 51/100
Pike Road is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is mixed and the first-time headgear is an unknown, while he is only 1 from 13 on good ground. Trainer Martin Keighley has a 12% strike rate here from 287 runs.
DivilabotherKTB Fit 48/100
Divilabother is a smart performer who has won his last three starts and arrives in excellent order. He has already won over this trip and scored on his only previous visit to Uttoxeter, though the yard's modest 5% strike-rate here is a clear negative. Good ground suits and the placed efforts on it add further confidence.
KTB verdict
Zillow is the KTB Selection. He possesses high-class ability on the balance of his ratings and past race history, and the yard’s strong record at Uttoxeter provides encouragement despite his recent modest form and the step up in trip. The selection can come out on top in a race where several others also step up in class and a number are trying headgear for the first time. Main dangers are Roger Pol with his good course record and proven stamina, Shallow River who brings a solid recent record including a win at the trip, and Karnaval Point who has already won over the course and acts on the ground.
KTB Selection Zillow
This is the narrative read of the 4:12 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course record at Uttoxeter?
Roger Pol has won two of his five starts at Uttoxeter.
How many of the field are trying first-time headgear?
Roger Pol, Shallow River, Karnaval Point, Paddy De Pole and Pike Road are all trying first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Uttoxeter among those represented?
James Owen has a 28% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 57 runs.
Which runner has won the most times on good ground?
Roger Pol has six wins from 15 runs on good ground.
Who is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Idaho Fire tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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