4:13 Cork
The 4:13 at Cork is a competitive 5f handicap for an 11-runner field on good ground. KTB's Fit ratings point to a clear top horse in Lamar Canyon on the back of a recent win, while the rest of the field is made up of largely modest performers with mixed recent form. The race features several runners with placed efforts at the track or over the trip, but questions remain around unproven conditions and modest course records for many.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent runners and a couple of front-runners likely to go forward from low draws, the pace shape looks on the strong side. Fox In Flight from stall 1 and Harry's Hill in stall 2 could press on early, while the selection Lamar Canyon is expected to come from mid-division or slightly wider. The key question is whether the prominent types can get away or if the race will be run at a pace that plays into the hands of those with a bit of toe from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lamar Canyon KTB Selection73/100Lamar Canyon showed little in his first three starts but improved sharply to win over this trip on his most recent outing.
- 2Cuban Grey60/100Cuban Grey is a fair handicapper who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning over this trip at Bellewstown in July.
- 3Nouvel Espoir53/100Modest performer who has won once from a single run at Cork and is 3-17 at this trip.
- 4Treasured Royal48/100Treasured Royal is a fair 3-year-old who has shown some spark on his last two starts, finishing third at Naas and fourth at the Curragh.
- 5Fox In Flight47/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from four attempts but has shown little spark in two starts this year.
- 6Happy Henry46/100Happy Henry is a limited performer who has been consistent this year without winning often, finishing in the first three on four of his last six starts.
- 7Genesis43/100Genesis is a modest performer who has won once on good ground from nine attempts and showed a bit of spark when winning at Dundalk in March.
- 8Beauty Queen42/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for most of this year.
- 9Sarahmae42/100Sarahmae is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 10Harry's Hill41/100Modest performer with seven wins at this trip but he has been well below form this year and his recent efforts make grim reading.
- 11Devil's Angel34/100Limited performer who has dropped to a basement mark but showed little spark when last seen.
The contenders
Lamar Canyon KTB Fit 73/100
Lamar Canyon showed little in his first three starts but improved sharply to win over this trip on his most recent outing. He is a fair performer on the balance of his form and has the benefit of a 7 lb claimer in the saddle who has struck at a 10% rate from ten Cork rides. The yard has no runners recorded at this track. Unproven on good ground is the main unknown but the recent sharp uptick in form makes him the one to beat. His draw in stall 9 should allow him to find a nice position just off what is likely to be an honest pace.
Cuban Grey KTB Fit 60/100
Cuban Grey is a fair handicapper who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning over this trip at Bellewstown in July. He has placed here once from a single run at Cork and acts on good ground with a win and six places from ten attempts. The trainer has yet to strike at this track from six runners while the 5lb claimer has a solid 25% strike rate here from a smallish sample. His recent form of 520517 shows flashes of ability mixed with lesser efforts. From draw 8 he should be able to track the leaders in a race that could be strongly run.
Nouvel Espoir KTB Fit 53/100
Nouvel Espoir is a modest performer who has won once from a single run at Cork and is 3-17 at this trip. He drops back to 5f today after a recent sixth over 6f and has been competitive on good ground without winning. Trainer strikes at 9% here from 43 runs while the jockey is operating at 12% from 192 rides. Recent form of -00236 suggests he is holding his form without progressing. Drawn in four he is likely to be prominent or on the speed which could be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on how the early fractions go.
Treasured Royal KTB Fit 48/100
Treasured Royal is a fair 3-year-old who has shown some spark on his last two starts, finishing third at Naas and fourth at the Curragh. He has a win on good ground from six runs on it though his overall profile remains modest, and he now drops back to 5f for the first time since an unsuccessful debut at the trip. The yard and jockey both have modest records at Cork with respective strike rates of 9%. His form figures of 60-034 show gradual improvement this term. From a wide draw in 11 he will need to be ridden positively to get involved early.
Fox In Flight KTB Fit 47/100
Fox In Flight is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from four attempts but has shown little spark in two starts this year. Only run at Cork resulted in an eighth placing and the yard’s modest 7% strike rate here offers no particular encouragement. Unproven on good ground adds another unknown. Recent form reads 313-80 which is underwhelming on balance. Drawn in stall 1 he is likely to be one of the leaders in what could be a strongly run affair and that run style may suit if the pace collapses.
The rest of the field
Happy HenryKTB Fit 46/100
Happy Henry is a limited performer who has been consistent this year without winning often, finishing in the first three on four of his last six starts. He has won over this trip and shown he handles good ground, though his record at Cork is untested and the yard's modest 13% strike rate here offers little encouragement. The jockey's figures at the track are similarly ordinary.
GenesisKTB Fit 43/100
Genesis is a modest performer who has won once on good ground from nine attempts and showed a bit of spark when winning at Dundalk in March. He has been below that level on his last two starts though and is now dropping back to 5f for the first time since two unsuccessful runs at the trip earlier in his career. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Cork adds little encouragement on his first run here.
Beauty QueenKTB Fit 42/100
Beauty Queen is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for most of this year. She has run twice at Cork without placing and the trainer's modest record here adds little confidence. Dropping back to 5f looks the right move on paper yet she needs to show more spark than her recent efforts.
SarahmaeKTB Fit 42/100
Sarahmae is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. She has won over today's 5f trip but is dropping back in distance from 6f and has only one win from six runs on good ground. The yard and jockey both have modest records at Cork and she showed little when fourth of 13 on her only previous run here.
Harry's HillKTB Fit 41/100
Harry's Hill is a modest performer with seven wins at this trip but he has been well below form this year and his recent efforts make grim reading. He has never won in four runs at Cork and the yard's poor record here adds to the negatives. Stalls low but that is about the only positive on a day when he needs to bounce back sharply.
Devil's AngelKTB Fit 34/100
Devil's Angel is a limited performer who has dropped to a basement mark but showed little spark when last seen. Has won over this trip in the past though he is 0-12 on good ground at Cork and the yard are struggling for winners here. Jockey has a modest record at the track but the horse has been given a handy 5lb claim.
KTB verdict
Lamar Canyon stands out as the KTB Selection. He showed marked improvement to win over the trip last time and looks a fair performer on that evidence, with the 7lb claimer an added bonus given his solid record at the track. The selection can track the pace before delivering his effort. Main dangers are Cuban Grey, who has placed at Cork and acts on the ground, and Nouvel Espoir who has won here and drops back to his optimum trip. Treasured Royal and Fox In Flight are next in the pecking order but both have questions to answer.
KTB Selection Lamar Canyon
This is the narrative read of the 4:13 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and is the selection?
Lamar Canyon with a KTB Fit of 73/100.
How many wins has Nouvel Espoir had at Cork?
One win from a single run at the track.
What is Cuban Grey's record on good ground?
One win from 10 runs on good with six places.
Has Harry's Hill ever won at Cork?
No, he is 0-4 at the track.
What is the recent form of the selection Lamar Canyon?
007-1, with a sharp improvement to win last time over 5f.
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