4:15 Beverley
This Class 5 middle-distance handicap at Beverley over 1m4f23y on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of six modest performers, most of whom are still seeking their first win of the campaign. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Mr Moonshine just heading That Darn Cantor, while the application of first-time headgear to four of the six runners adds an extra layer of uncertainty. Overall the numbers point to a race that will be decided by who handles the muddling pace and the new headgear most effectively.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in a muddling, tactical pace shape the race is likely to be run at a steady rather than searching gallop. Most of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any horse can quicken off what may prove a crawl. Wardlaw and Return With Gold are the only two noted as prominent runners, which could see them pressed into service to make the running or at least set a usable tempo from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mr Moonshine KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year but has yet to win.
- 2That Darn Cantor57/100Modest performer who has shown little sign of progress across six runs and was beaten over eight lengths when last seen in a similar race.
- 3Grey Fable51/100Grey Fable is a limited performer who has won three times at today's trip from 15 attempts.
- 4Wardlaw50/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing placed on his last three starts including when third over this trip last time.
- 5Sisterandbrother48/100Modest performer with a solid record here, winning two of nine starts at Beverley.
- 6Return With Gold43/100Modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win on soft ground and two placed efforts but has been well held in both starts since.
The contenders
Mr Moonshine KTB Fit 58/100
Mr Moonshine is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year without yet managing to break his duck. He has been placed once at this trip and has run twice here without troubling the judge. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard continue in solid form at this track, boasting an 18% strike rate at Beverley with an A/E of 1.34 from 22 runs. Oisin Orr, who has a 19% strike rate at the track himself, takes the ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the muddling tactical pace. The KTB Fit score of 58 marks him out as the selection.
That Darn Cantor KTB Fit 57/100
That Darn Cantor is a modest performer who has shown little sign of progress across six runs and was beaten over eight lengths when last seen in a similar race. He has tried this trip twice without success and now sports first-time headgear. Ed Dunlop has a solid 18% strike rate at Beverley from 227 runs, though Cieren Fallon is currently 0-11 at the track. The colt has two runs on good to firm without placing and no course form on record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is closely matched on KTB Fit at 57 and should appreciate the tactical nature of the race.
Grey Fable KTB Fit 51/100
Grey Fable is a limited performer who has won three times at today's trip from 15 attempts. First-time headgear is now tried after a string of ordinary efforts, and the yard has no recorded runners at Beverley. The horse has only raced once on good to firm ground without placing and has no course form on record. Jason Hart, who holds an 11% strike rate at Beverley from 400 rides, takes the mount. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will hope the muddling pace plays to his strengths. His KTB Fit of 51 leaves him a touch behind the top two.
Wardlaw KTB Fit 50/100
Wardlaw is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing placed on his last three starts including when third over this trip last time. He drops back from 1m6f and first-time headgear is now applied. Sir Mark Prescott has a solid 19% strike rate at Beverley from 195 runs, though the trainer-jockey combination shows an A/E of 0.89 overall. With only one run on good to firm and no course form, he represents a different run-style as the sole prominent racer among the principals. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be instrumental in shaping the muddling pace.
The rest of the field
SisterandbrotherKTB Fit 48/100
Sisterandbrother is a modest performer with a solid record here, winning two of nine starts at Beverley. He has won three times from nine runs on good to firm and also has five wins from 21 starts at this trip, though he steps up in distance today from 1m3f while moving up in class. Joey Ramsden has a 33% strike rate from six runs at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his KTB Fit of 48 leaves him just short of the main contenders.
Return With GoldKTB Fit 43/100
Return With Gold is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win on soft ground and two placed efforts but has been well held in both starts since. First-time headgear is now applied as he tries this trip again having failed to land a blow on his two previous attempts at it. The trainer has an 8% strike rate here from a big sample while the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could help set the pace in a muddling race but his KTB Fit of 43 makes him the lowest rated in the field.
KTB verdict
Mr Moonshine is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistency without winning and the first-time headgear is a plausible positive for a yard that continues in solid form at Beverley. The muddling pace should suit his usual held-up style, and he is entitled to be thereabouts at the finish. That Darn Cantor is closely matched on the numbers and cannot be dismissed with the same headgear applied, while Grey Fable and Wardlaw add further depth in a race where several are trying something new. The principals look to hold the aces over the two outsiders.
KTB Selection Mr Moonshine
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Mr Moonshine rated the KTB Selection ahead of That Darn Cantor?
He has a slightly higher KTB Fit score of 58 compared with 57, has shown more consistency this year, and the yard has a stronger record at Beverley with an A/E of 1.34.
How many of the six runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Mr Moonshine, That Darn Cantor, Grey Fable and Wardlaw.
Which horses are likely to race prominently?
Wardlaw and Return With Gold are the only two noted as prominent runners who usually race handily on or close to the lead.
Which horse has the best course record at Beverley?
Sisterandbrother has the best course record, winning two of his nine starts at Beverley.
What is the overall pace shape for the race?
Muddling and tactical with medium confidence; there is no obvious front-runner and it should suit those ridden close to the pace.
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