4:15 Musselburgh
This Class 6 handicap at Musselburgh over 7f15y on good ground brings together an eleven-runner field of largely modest performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Evangelic heading the list on 57 despite a lengthy absence and a sharp drop in trip, while the next four principals sit between 51 and 54. Overall the numbers point to a race where course form, trainer record at the venue and the ability to handle an uncontested lead will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. With only Coconut Bay identified as a front-runner and the remaining ten runners all either held up or settling in mid-division, the leader should be allowed an easy time up front. The key question is whether any of the held-up principals can bridge the gap in the straight on a track where late efforts often need to be perfectly timed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Evangelic KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time and now drops sharply in trip from 2m1f to 7f.
- 2Gressington54/100Modest performer who has been placed once in three runs at Musselburgh and has shown he can be competitive on good ground.
- 3Novak51/100Modest performer who has been knocking on the door of late with four straight places including a second here.
- 4Vince Le Prince51/100Modest performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Musselburgh without winning.
- 5Edmond Halley51/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form at best across ten starts and arrives here off the back of a string of unplaced efforts.
- 6Keep Me Stable50/100Limited performer who has run well here on his last two starts, finishing second and third.
- 7Luminous Warrior48/100Modest performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in the last six starts.
- 8Monhammer43/100Limited performer who has won four times at this track from 21 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip.
- 9Coconut Bay43/100Coconut Bay is a limited performer who has been running creditably at this level without winning lately.
- 10Sir David43/100Limited performer who has won twice this year including at this trip.
- 11Joshuas Dream38/100Limited performer who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts including a ninth on his only run here.
The contenders
Evangelic KTB Fit 57/100
Evangelic is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time. Dropping sharply in trip from 2m1f to 7f, he has been placed once at this distance but has shown little on good ground in three starts. The trainer holds a 33% strike rate at Musselburgh from a small sample of six runs with an A/E of 2.89, while the jockey has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.89 from 70 rides. First-time headgear is now fitted as the four-year-old is held up and usually produces its effort late. Recent form reads /4040- and he goes in the market in this field of eleven.
Gressington KTB Fit 54/100
Gressington is a modest performer who has been placed once in three runs at Musselburgh and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, with two places from ten starts. He has won three times at this trip from seventeen attempts and his recent form of 080747 suggests he is not badly out of form. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at the track from 154 runs with an A/E of 0.78, while the jockey boasts a 20% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.28 from 236 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 9, the five-year-old has course form reading 7th, 5th and 2nd.
Novak KTB Fit 51/100
Novak is a modest performer who has been knocking on the door of late with four straight places including a second here. He has won at today's trip and is proven on good ground though he remains winless in three runs at Musselburgh, with form figures of 2nd, 7th and 4th. Iain Jardine has an 11% strike rate at the track from 883 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while Andrew Mullen partners the horse. Usually held up and producing its effort late from the inside draw, the seven-year-old arrives with recent form of 523442.
Vince Le Prince KTB Fit 51/100
Vince Le Prince is a modest performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Musselburgh without winning, with form of 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th and 6th. He has won at today's trip but his record on good ground is only one win from nineteen starts. Trainer Tim Easterby has a 12% strike rate here from 891 runs with an A/E of 0.79, while jockey Duran Fentiman has a 7% strike rate from 351 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.79. Dropping in class and usually held up, the six-year-old has recent form figures of 530203.
Edmond Halley KTB Fit 51/100
Edmond Halley is a limited horse who has shown only modest form at best across ten starts and arrives here off the back of a string of unplaced efforts. Stepping up to 7f for the first time having looked stretched at 6f last time, the yard’s solid 20% strike rate at Musselburgh from forty runs with an A/E of 0.94 offers some encouragement. Placed once from one run on good ground but overall profile remains modest. Usually held up and producing its effort late, recent form reads 007533 and the jockey has a 15% strike rate at the track.
The rest of the field
Keep Me StableKTB Fit 50/100
Keep Me Stable is a limited performer who has run well here on his last two starts, finishing second and third. He has won three times at Musselburgh from thirteen visits and also has a solid record on good ground with four wins from fifteen starts, though the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative.
Luminous WarriorKTB Fit 48/100
Luminous Warrior is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in the last six starts. Stepping up to 7f for the first time since last year having failed to win in seven previous attempts at the trip and making his debut at Musselburgh, the trainer has a 0% strike rate from fifteen runs here while the horse is only placed once from three runs on good ground.
MonhammerKTB Fit 43/100
Monhammer is a limited performer who has won four times at this track from twenty-one starts and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form of 324611 shows two wins in the last month yet the yard's modest 5% strike-rate at Musselburgh is a clear negative. Goes well on good ground.
Coconut BayKTB Fit 43/100
Coconut Bay is a limited performer who has been running creditably at this level without winning lately. He has shown consistent placed form at Musselburgh including two seconds and is proven at the trip with six wins from forty-one starts. The yard holds a 16% strike rate here from fifty runs and he has two wins and six places from thirteen starts on good ground. The only front-runner in the field.
Sir DavidKTB Fit 43/100
Sir David is a limited performer who has won twice this year including at this trip. He showed his best form when third at Redcar last time and has a solid record on good ground. Tinkler has a 14% strike-rate at Musselburgh while the 3lb claimer is riding.
Joshuas DreamKTB Fit 38/100
Joshuas Dream is a limited performer who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts including a ninth on his only run here. Dropping back from a mile to 7f having shown nothing at either trip so far, the trainer has a solid 10 percent strike-rate at Musselburgh from a huge sample while the 5 lb claimer is riding.
KTB verdict
Evangelic is the KTB Selection. Although a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and now drops sharply in trip, the trainer’s strong 33% strike rate at Musselburgh from a small sample stands out and first-time headgear could spark improvement. The uncontested lead identified in the pace shape may make life hard for the many held-up runners, yet Evangelic is expected to be suited by the test. Main dangers are Gressington, who has shown placed form here and is competitive on good ground, and Novak, who has been knocking on the door with four straight places including a second at the track.
KTB Selection Evangelic
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Musselburgh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Musselburgh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only front-runner and how does this fit the pace shape?
Coconut Bay is the only front-runner while the pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to an uncontested lead.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Musselburgh for the selection Evangelic?
The trainer has a 33% strike rate at Musselburgh with an A/E of 2.89 from six runs.
How many of the runners are usually held up?
Ten of the eleven runners are either held up or settle in mid-division, with only Coconut Bay tending to make the running.
Which horse has the strongest recent placed form at Musselburgh?
Novak has four straight places including a second here, while Gressington, Vince Le Prince and Coconut Bay also have placed form at the track.
What is the official rating context for these runners?
All are modest or limited performers competing in a Class 6 handicap.
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