4:15 Navan
This 1m20y handicap division at Navan on good to firm ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are separated by just two points on the ratings, underlining how little separates them on paper in a race that lacks any standout ability. With no horse holding an official rating above the mid-60s and several unproven on the surface, the outcome is likely to hinge on which can translate recent consistency into a first win of the campaign.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy to the pace should pay dividends. Most of the field, including the top five, tend to be held up or race in mid-division, so the key question will be which jockey can engineer a smooth run from off the pace without leaving too much to do in the closing stages. With the rail potentially an advantage in a race run this way, those drawn low could find themselves better placed than those stuck wide.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mythical Rock KTB Selection55/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of two seconds and two placings from his last four starts.
- 2Loingseoir54/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win.
- 3Sheamus Seimhiu54/100Limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and arrives here off the back of a poor 2024.
- 4Ella's Gold54/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with placed efforts at this trip.
- 5Avec Grand Plaisir53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately, finishing second in a handicap here over this trip last time out.
- 6Comfort Line50/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed only fair form when fifth of 14 over course and distance on his most recent visit here.
- 7Sherekiya49/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the first four on three of her five starts.
- 8Trumph49/100Modest performer who has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing eighth on debut and then twice well beaten.
- 9Kingcharles46/100Kingcharles has shown very little in four runs, finishing no closer than eighth and looking limited on the evidence so far.
- 10Cosmic Funk42/100Modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed once in five attempts.
- 11Borora Aura41/100Limited performer who has shown little for some time and arrives here with a recent string of ordinary efforts.
- 12Think About It40/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 13The Holy Apostle37/100Limited performer who has failed to finish in the first six on his last four starts and looks up against it from a wide draw.
- 14Hale Bopp34/100Hale Bopp is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and is now 0-49 on the Flat.
The contenders
Mythical Rock KTB Fit 55/100
Mythical Rock is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two seconds and two placings from his last four starts. He has been placed at this trip on half of his starts and is the KTB Selection. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains unproven on good to firm ground and is making his first visit to Navan. Trainer C Byrnes holds a 21% strike rate at the track from 146 runs while jockey Sean Davis has a 5% strike rate at Navan from 88 rides with an A/E of 0.73. The combination of recent placed form and the trainer's record at the venue makes him the one to beat in a race where being on the premises late should count.
Loingseoir KTB Fit 54/100
Loingseoir is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win. He has won over this trip in the past but showed little on his only visit to Navan when fifth and has never raced on good to firm ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 10-year-old arrives with form figures of 744643. Trainer M C Grassick has a 6% strike rate at Navan from 77 runs with an A/E of 0.88 while jockey Jack Cleary, claiming 5lb, has a 10% strike rate at the track from 52 rides with an A/E of 1.12. The combination of trip suitability and recent consistency keeps him in the mix but the lack of course and ground experience limits his appeal.
Sheamus Seimhiu KTB Fit 54/100
Sheamus Seimhiu is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and arrives here off the back of a poor 2024 campaign. The step up to a mile looks a reasonable move on paper yet he remains unproven on good to firm ground and has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a wide draw of 14, his form figures read 00860-. Trainer Chris Timmons has a 13% strike rate at Navan from 60 runs with an A/E of 1.92 while jockey Gary Carroll has a 7% strike rate at the track from 443 rides with an A/E of 0.76. The yard's record at the venue offers some hope but overall he looks to have plenty to find.
Ella's Gold KTB Fit 54/100
Ella's Gold is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with placed efforts at this trip. First time at Navan and no experience on good to firm ground both leave questions to answer. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the three-year-old has form figures of 2-0230. Trainer Matthew J Smith has a 9% strike rate at Navan from 140 runs with an A/E of 1.26 while jockey Robbie Colgan has a 3% strike rate at the track from 552 rides with an A/E of 0.67. His placed efforts at the distance suggest he can be competitive if the ground and venue do not prove insurmountable.
Avec Grand Plaisir KTB Fit 53/100
Avec Grand Plaisir is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately, finishing second in a handicap here over this trip last time out. He has placed twice from three runs at the distance without winning, though the small overall sample means his effectiveness on good to firm ground remains untested. Typically settling in midfield, the three-year-old has form figures of -75382. Trainer Jarlath P Fahey has a 6% strike rate at Navan from 125 runs with an A/E of 0.91 while jockey Ronan Whelan has a 6% strike rate at the track from 355 rides with an A/E of 0.76. His recent placed effort at the venue and trip makes him one of the more interesting contenders.
The rest of the field
Comfort LineKTB Fit 50/100
Comfort Line is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed only fair form when fifth of 14 over course and distance on his most recent visit here. He has won four times at this trip but his record on good to firm is limited to a single run with no placing, while the trainer's 5% strike rate at Navan from 308 runs adds little encouragement.
SherekiyaKTB Fit 49/100
Sherekiya is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the first four on three of her five starts. She has placed at this trip without winning and holds strong course connections through her trainer, who has a 12% strike rate from 812 runs at Navan, though the going remains an unknown with only five career runs to date.
TrumphKTB Fit 49/100
Trumph is a modest performer who has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing eighth on debut and then twice well beaten. He drops back in trip to an untested 1m today which asks a fresh question of him, though trainer Mrs John Harrington records a solid 11% strike rate from over a thousand runs at Navan.
KingcharlesKTB Fit 46/100
Kingcharles has shown very little in four runs, finishing no closer than eighth and looking limited on the evidence so far. He was well beaten on his only previous visit to Navan and is now stepping up in trip having failed to make an impact at this distance on both previous attempts, while the trainer holds a 9% strike rate at the track from 65 runs.
Cosmic FunkKTB Fit 42/100
Cosmic Funk is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed once in five attempts. First time at Navan and unproven on good to firm ground adds uncertainty, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 32 runs at the track.
Borora AuraKTB Fit 41/100
Borora Aura is a limited performer who has shown little for some time and arrives here with a recent string of ordinary efforts. Drawn on the rail which could be handy but has failed to place in four attempts at this trip and is 0-2 on good to firm ground, while the yard's 5% strike rate at Navan adds little encouragement.
Think About ItKTB Fit 40/100
Think About It is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to 1m today having been well held over much further last time though he has failed to win in six previous attempts at this trip, and the trainer has only had one runner at Navan so far.
The Holy ApostleKTB Fit 37/100
The Holy Apostle is a limited performer who has failed to finish in the first six on his last four starts and looks up against it from a wide draw. Trainer Brendan W Duke has yet to record a winner from 50 runs at Navan while jockey Rory Cleary also has a modest record here, and he drops back to a trip at which he has placed once but remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Hale BoppKTB Fit 34/100
Hale Bopp is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and is now 0-49 on the Flat. He has won twice at today's trip yet has shown very little spark this season and his sole run on good to firm ground brought no reward, while today's first visit to the track adds another unknown.
KTB verdict
Mythical Rock is the KTB Selection. His recent record of two seconds and two placings from his last four starts marks him out as the most consistent in the field, and the trainer's 21% strike rate at Navan from 146 runs provides a solid underpinning. The fact he is usually held up should not be a major disadvantage in a steadily-run race where being handy pays. His main dangers are Avec Grand Plaisir, who was second over this trip and course last time, and Loingseoir, who has won at the distance in the past and brings solid recent form. Ella's Gold and Sheamus Seimhiu are next in the KTB Fit order but both have more to prove at the venue and on the ground.
KTB Selection Mythical Rock
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent placed form at this trip?
Mythical Rock has been placed at this trip on half of his starts and has two seconds and two placings from his last four starts.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Navan among those represented in the top five?
Chris Timmons has a 13% strike rate at Navan from 60 runs with an A/E of 1.92.
Has Avec Grand Plaisir won over this trip?
No, he has placed twice from three runs at the distance without winning.
What is the trainer's record at Navan for the KTB Selection?
C Byrnes holds a 21% strike rate at Navan from 146 runs with an A/E of 1.41.
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