4:15 Pontefract
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Pontefract on good to firm ground brings together ten modest performers, several of whom have shown recent winning form or placed efforts at the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Sea Her Excel just heading the numbers on 61, followed closely by Le Beau Garcon on 60 and The Tunguska Event on 57. Three of the principals step up in class while one drops in grade, and the presence of multiple front-runners sets up what promises to be a strongly run affair over the straight five furlongs.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace shape assessed at high confidence, the race is likely to be contested up front by several habitual pace-setters including Sea Her Excel, The Tunguska Event, Betweenthesticks, Sam's Xpress and Riffa Spirit. Le Beau Garcon will race prominently from his low draw while the hold-up performers such as Great, Missmimi, Spirit Of Applause and Bibendum look to pick up the pieces. The key question is whether the pace collapses late, which would play into the hands of those racing off the speed in what could become a test of stamina as well as speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sea Her Excel KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has won twice over this trip on good to firm, including once this season.
- 2Le Beau Garcon60/100Modest performer who has dropped to a winnable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 3The Tunguska Event57/100Modest performer on the balance of his form with a recent win sandwiched between placed efforts.
- 4Betweenthesticks55/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with eight wins from 48 starts.
- 5Great52/100Modest performer who has shown some spark on this track with a placed effort from two runs here.
- 6Missmimi51/100Modest performer who has won twice from four runs at Pontefract and arrives in decent recent form having landed a similar race last time out.
- 7Spirit Of Applause49/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts but has been out of the money on his last two starts.
- 8Sam's Xpress47/100Sam's Xpress is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place on good to firm ground and has won six times at this trip from 39 attempts.
- 9Bibendum46/100Modest performer who has won twice on good to firm, including at this trip, but his recent form is patchy and he showed little at this track on his only previou…
- 10Riffa Spirit45/100Modest performer who has failed to win in eight starts and looks exposed at this level.
The contenders
Sea Her Excel KTB Fit 61/100
Sea Her Excel is a modest performer who has won twice over this trip on good to firm, including once this season. She ran creditably when fifth over course and distance on her only visit here and arrives in decent form after a recent win. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Pontefract while the jockey is 14% from her small sample of rides at the track. Stepping up in class from a wide draw in stall 10, she tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in that run-style. Her record shows two wins from four starts on good to firm with three placed efforts overall.
Le Beau Garcon KTB Fit 60/100
Le Beau Garcon is a modest performer who has dropped to a winnable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. This is his first visit to Pontefract and he is drawn low in stall 2 which could be an advantage on this track. The trainer and jockey both have solid records here with the yard at 11% strike rate from 154 runs and the rider at 13% from 137 rides. He has shown he handles good to firm ground with four wins from 12 starts. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead with medium confidence in that prominent style.
The Tunguska Event KTB Fit 57/100
The Tunguska Event is a modest performer on the balance of his form with a recent win sandwiched between placed efforts. He has already shown up well over this course and distance when second here earlier in the season, though his two runs on good to firm ground have produced no placed finishes. First-time headgear is now fitted as he drops back to 5f while stepping up in class from draw 3. The trainer has a strong 22% strike rate at Pontefract from 32 runs with an A/E of 1.55. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
Betweenthesticks KTB Fit 55/100
Betweenthesticks is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with eight wins from 48 starts. He has shown bits of form this year but is inconsistent overall and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Pontefract with the yard at 9% strike rate and the rider at 6%. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that style. His going record reads one win from 12 on good to firm with six placed efforts.
Great KTB Fit 52/100
Great is a modest performer who has shown some spark on this track with a placed effort from two runs here. Dropping back to 5f asks a fresh question after his latest run over 6f and he has only managed one unplaced effort at the trip to date. The trainer strikes at 10% here from 40 runs while the jockey is 8% from 124 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. His record shows two wins from six on good to firm with two placed efforts and he has been placed once from two course visits.
The rest of the field
MissmimiKTB Fit 51/100
Missmimi is a modest performer who has won twice from four runs at Pontefract and arrives in decent recent form having landed a similar race last time out. The drop back to 5f is a positive given her record at the trip yet she has never placed in three runs on good to firm ground. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here while the apprentice has a more modest 7% from 27 rides. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with medium confidence.
Spirit Of ApplauseKTB Fit 49/100
Spirit Of Applause is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts but has been out of the money on his last two starts. He drops back to 5f where he has won three times from 27 starts though he has looked more comfortable over 6f of late. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and jockey both hold a 10% strike rate at Pontefract. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence and is dropping in class.
Sam's XpressKTB Fit 47/100
Sam's Xpress is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place on good to firm ground and has won six times at this trip from 39 attempts. He arrives in ordinary recent form and makes his first visit to Pontefract from stall one. The trainer has only one run here so that remains unknown while the jockey's 11% strike rate from nine rides offers modest encouragement. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
BibendumKTB Fit 46/100
Bibendum is a modest performer who has won twice on good to firm, including at this trip, but his recent form is patchy and he showed little at this track on his only previous run. The first-time headgear is an unknown and the wide draw in stall 9 is far from ideal. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Pontefract. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence and is stepping up in class.
Riffa SpiritKTB Fit 45/100
Riffa Spirit is a modest performer who has failed to win in eight starts and looks exposed at this level. He has run five times over today's 5f trip without placing and showed little on his only attempt on good to firm ground. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Pontefract. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
Sea Her Excel is the KTB Selection. She arrives in decent form after a recent win, has already shown she handles Pontefract with a creditable fifth over course and distance, and possesses the speed to take up her customary position on the pace in a race where the strong gallop could set things up for those who race prominently. Her record on good to firm reads well with two wins from four starts. The main dangers are Le Beau Garcon, who drops to a winnable mark with a advantageous low draw and solid yard and jockey records at the track, and The Tunguska Event, who has course and distance form and now tries first-time headgear. Betweenthesticks cannot be entirely dismissed given his two wins at the venue.
KTB Selection Sea Her Excel
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Pontefract. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Pontefract racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Sea Her Excel, The Tunguska Event, Betweenthesticks, Sam's Xpress and Riffa Spirit all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many principals are stepping up in class?
Three principals are stepping up in class: Sea Her Excel, The Tunguska Event and Great.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Spirit Of Applause is dropping in class.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear?
The Tunguska Event, Betweenthesticks, Spirit Of Applause and Bibendum are all trying first-time headgear.
Who holds the strongest trainer strike rate at Pontefract among the principals?
John & Sean Quinn hold a 22% strike rate at Pontefract from 32 runs with an A/E of 1.55.
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