4:18 Thirsk
This Class 5 fillies' handicap over six furlongs at Thirsk on good ground brings together a field of nine modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end. The principals are headed by Ziggy's Queen on a Fit score of 64, followed by Eartha at 61, Celtic Arrow at 57 and Zooella at 56, with the remainder trailing between 48 and 34. First-time headgear appears on four runners while several have course experience, though the overall standard remains modest and the pace shape is only tentative.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence, as there is only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Zooella from stall one and Canaria Queen look most likely to take up the running or race prominently, while the majority of the field including Ziggy's Queen, Eartha and Miss Rainbow are held-up types who will be produced late. This sets up the key question of whether the race will develop into a true test or whether those coming from off the pace can time their efforts effectively on a track where low draws can sometimes prove advantageous.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ziggy's Queen KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time, finishing no better than sixth on her last four starts.
- 2Eartha61/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and looks in need of the first-time headgear to spark a revival.
- 3Celtic Arrow57/100Celtic Arrow has shown consistent form in four runs this year, finishing in the first four every time including a second over course and distance last time out.
- 4Zooella56/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form, finishing no worse than fourth in four of her five starts and winning last time out over today's trip.
- 5Canaria Queen48/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 122155 but has never won or placed in three runs at Thirsk.
- 6Miss Rainbow47/100Modest performer who has won three times from five starts at Thirsk and also has a solid record on good ground with four wins from eleven runs.
- 7Taygar44/100Modest performer who has been knocking on the door this season with four seconds from his last six starts.
- 8Love Alive40/100Modest performer who has been up and down this year with a win and a couple of placed efforts among his 11 starts.
- 9Oasis Cover34/100Modest performer on the balance of his form.
The contenders
Ziggy's Queen KTB Fit 64/100
Ziggy's Queen is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time, finishing no better than sixth on her last four starts. She has won over today's 6f trip in the past and the first-time headgear is a possible positive, yet her sole run here was poor and she has only placed once in nine attempts on good ground. The yard's solid record at Thirsk offers some encouragement but overall this looks a difficult ask from stall 2. Richard and Peter Fahey have an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.29 from 18 runs while Ethan Tindall has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.71 from 11 rides. Her recent form reads 179856 and she is held up, usually producing her effort late on the basis of limited evidence.
Eartha KTB Fit 61/100
Eartha is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and looks in need of the first-time headgear to spark a revival. She has placed over course and distance and acts on good ground, while the yard has a solid 11% strike rate here. Trip and ground look suitable enough but overall form remains a concern. Her recent form figures read /809-5 and she is another held-up type on the limited evidence available. Richard and Peter Fahey's record with Harry Russell reads 1-15 with an A/E of 0.67 while the jockey himself has a 12% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.74 from 74 rides.
Celtic Arrow KTB Fit 57/100
Celtic Arrow has shown consistent form in four runs this year, finishing in the first four every time including a second over course and distance last time out. A modest performer on ratings, he has placed twice at this trip without winning. The yard holds a solid 10% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample. His recent form reads 3422 and he races from draw 8. Julie Camacho's record at the track is 10% with an A/E of 0.96 from 240 runs while Ryan Sexton has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.99 from 57 rides. He is unproven on good ground.
Zooella KTB Fit 56/100
Zooella is a modest performer who has shown consistent form, finishing no worse than fourth in four of her five starts and winning last time out over today's trip. Stall one could be an advantage on this track. Trainer has a solid 19% strike rate here from 57 runs while the jockey also knows the place well. Her recent form reads 3234-1 and she tends to make the running or race on the pace on the basis of limited evidence. Ralph Beckett's record at Thirsk stands at 19% with an A/E of 0.89 while Rossa Ryan has a 28% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.15 from 18 rides. She is unproven on good ground.
The rest of the field
Canaria QueenKTB Fit 48/100
Canaria Queen is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 122155 but has never won or placed in three runs at Thirsk. She steps up to 6f for the first time in a while having won once at the trip from 21 attempts, while first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 2148 runs here and the horse has won three times from 18 starts on good ground. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and is dropping in class.
Miss RainbowKTB Fit 47/100
Miss Rainbow is a modest performer who has won three times from five starts at Thirsk and also has a solid record on good ground with four wins from eleven runs. She has been in and out this year with a win and two places from her last six starts but is now tried in first-time headgear. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from a large sample. She is held up and is stepping up in class.
TaygarKTB Fit 44/100
Taygar is a modest performer who has been knocking on the door this season with four seconds from his last six starts. He has placed twice from three runs at Thirsk and has a win and four places from 17 runs on good ground, so conditions look suitable. Trainer Michael Dods has a 10% strike rate here from a big sample while Jason Hart also knows the track well. He is stepping up in class.
Love AliveKTB Fit 40/100
Love Alive is a modest performer who has been up and down this year with a win and a couple of placed efforts among his 11 starts. He steps up from 5f to 6f for the first time in a while and has shown little on good ground in four previous attempts. Trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Thirsk adds little confidence on first run here.
Oasis CoverKTB Fit 34/100
Oasis Cover is a modest performer on the balance of his form. He has shown some ability at this trip with a placing from four starts but has been below that level on his last two outings. The yard's modest record at Thirsk adds little confidence. He is stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Ziggy's Queen is the KTB Selection. She is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark, has won over the trip before, and now tries first-time headgear while the yard's solid record at Thirsk provides encouragement. Her overall form of late is a worry and her sole course run was poor, yet she tops the KTB Fit ratings at 64. The main dangers are Celtic Arrow, who has been consistently in the first four this season including a course and distance second, and Zooella, who arrives on the back of a win over the trip from a good draw.
KTB Selection Ziggy's Queen
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ziggy's Queen | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Eartha | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Celtic Arrow | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Zooella | 13/8 | Bet365 |
| Canaria Queen | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Miss Rainbow | 13/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Taygar | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Love Alive | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Oasis Cover | 33/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance in headgear?
Ziggy's Queen, Eartha, Canaria Queen and Miss Rainbow are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest recent course record at Thirsk?
Miss Rainbow has won three times from five starts at Thirsk.
Which runners are unproven on good ground?
Celtic Arrow and Zooella have no runs on good ground.
How many horses have placed over course and distance?
Eartha has placed over course and distance and Celtic Arrow finished second over course and distance last time.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Thirsk among those represented?
Ralph Beckett has a 19% strike rate at Thirsk from 57 runs.
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