4:20 Ascot
The Prince of Wales's Stakes is one of the season's premier middle-distance Group 1 contests, run over 1m1f212y on good to firm ground at Ascot. This year's renewal features a compact but high-quality field of eight, headed by several performers with strong recent form and proven ability at or around this trip. The KTB Fit ratings highlight a tight contest at the top, with the selection holding a narrow edge over a couple of dangerous rivals who bring solid trainer and jockey combinations to the table.
How the race shapes up
With a field of eight and a pace shape that looks fairly even, the race is expected to be run at a genuine gallop rather than a crawl. Several runners, including Almaqam drawn in stall one and Daryz from stall two, have shown a preference for racing prominently or on the speed, which could see them contest the early lead. The key question will be whether those up front can maintain their position on this stiff Ascot track or if the race will be decided by those delivered with a well-timed challenge from mid-division or towards the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ombudsman KTB Selection73/100High-class performer with a strong recent record of 212-11 and five wins from eight starts at today's trip.
- 2Daryz71/100Daryz is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of 621-11 and has won three of his four starts at this trip.
- 3Almaqam66/100Almaqam is a high-class performer with strong recent form including a win on reappearance.
- 4Minnie Hauk63/100High-class performer with a solid recent record including two wins from her last four starts.
- 5See The Fire59/100Smart performer who has won both starts this year and arrives in good order.
- 6Dancing Gemini56/100Dancing Gemini is a smart performer with solid recent efforts when finishing fourth and sixth in strong company.
- 7Mississippi River47/100Useful performer who has shown mixed form this season with a fifth and two unplaced efforts from his last three starts.
- 8Devil's Advocate47/100Smart performer who has won twice at this trip but has failed to land a blow in two runs here and is 0-3 on good to firm ground.
The contenders
Ombudsman KTB Fit 73/100
Ombudsman is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of 212-11 and five wins from eight starts at today's trip. He has already won at Ascot from two runs and boasts a solid three-from-four record on good to firm ground. The Gosden yard's 14% strike rate from 284 runs at the track is respectable while Buick's booking adds further confidence. Drawn in stall eight, he is likely to be positioned towards the rear before making his move, fitting the shape of a race where patience could be rewarded. His trainer and jockey combination carries a 39/160 record with an A/E of 0.94, underlining their reliability at this level.
Daryz KTB Fit 71/100
Daryz is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of 621-11 and has won three of his four starts at this trip. He steps back up in distance having last run over the same range and holds solid connections with trainer Francois-Henri Graffard recording a 19% strike rate from 36 runs at Ascot. The only slight negative is his sole run on good to firm ground yielded no win or place. From draw two he is expected to race prominently, which could be an advantage or a potential weakness depending on how the pace unfolds. His trainer and jockey partnership shows a 163/657 record with an A/E of 0.91.
Almaqam KTB Fit 66/100
Almaqam is a high-class performer with strong recent form including a win on reappearance. He has placed once from two runs at Ascot and the trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate here from 237 runs. Dropping back to a trip he has won over is a plus though his sole run on good to firm ground yielded no placing. Drawn in stall one he is likely to be prominent from the outset, which will test his ability to handle the pace shape in what looks a strongly run affair. The trainer and jockey record stands at 58/366 with an A/E of 1.00.
Minnie Hauk KTB Fit 63/100
Minnie Hauk is a high-class performer with a solid recent record including two wins from her last four starts. She drops back in trip today having last run over further but she has already won over this distance on her only attempt. Trainer holds a 14% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample while Moore takes the ride on ground that has suited her before. Her 1/1 record on good to firm is a positive and she is expected to be ridden with some restraint from draw five. The powerful O'Brien/Moore axis brings a 645/2430 record with an A/E of 0.92.
The rest of the field
See The FireKTB Fit 59/100
See The Fire is a smart performer who has won both starts this year and arrives in good order. Placed once from three runs at this track and holds a solid record on good to firm with two wins and four places from six starts. Drops back in trip today having last run over further though he has won at this distance before.
Dancing GeminiKTB Fit 56/100
Dancing Gemini is a smart performer with solid recent efforts when finishing fourth and sixth in strong company. He has run respectably at this track without winning and has gone well on good to firm ground in the past. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of him.
Mississippi RiverKTB Fit 47/100
Mississippi River is a useful performer who has shown mixed form this season with a fifth and two unplaced efforts from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while his sole run on good to firm ground brought no win or place. Aidan O'Brien has a solid 14% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample.
Devil's AdvocateKTB Fit 47/100
Devil's Advocate is a smart performer who has won twice at this trip but has failed to land a blow in two runs here and is 0-3 on good to firm ground. The yard's 14% strike rate from 284 runs at Ascot is respectable though their A/E of 0.84 shows they are slightly underperforming. Recent form of 417-24 suggests he remains competitive at this level without being an obvious standout.
KTB verdict
Ombudsman stands out as the KTB Selection with his high-class profile, excellent recent record of 212-11 and proven effectiveness at this trip and track. His record on good to firm ground and the booking of Buick for the Gosden team further strengthen his claims in a race where his ability to settle and strike late should suit the anticipated pace. Daryz and Almaqam head the list of dangers, both bringing high-class form and positive trainer reads at Ascot, while Minnie Hauk cannot be dismissed with the assistance of Moore and a favourable trip record. The race should provide a proper test and sort out the best middle-distance performer on the day.
KTB Selection Ombudsman
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent form at this trip?
Ombudsman with five wins from eight starts at today's trip and a recent record of 212-11.
How many runners have previous winning form at Ascot?
Only Ombudsman has won here from two runs; the remainder have either no course form or placed without winning.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ascot in this field?
Francois-Henri Graffard with a 19% strike rate from 36 runs at Ascot.
Who is best suited by the good to firm ground according to the records supplied?
Ombudsman with three wins from four on good to firm, and Minnie Hauk with one win from one on good to firm.
What is the expected run style for the two most prominent dangers?
Both Daryz from stall two and Almaqam from stall one are likely to race prominently.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies