4:20 Leopardstown
This Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden over 6½f at Leopardstown features a field of twelve two-year-olds with limited racecourse evidence between them. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, headed by Little Diva on 52, with the next four principals all rated between 47 and 49, underlining how open the race appears on the numbers. Most runners are unproven on the ground and several are making their debut, so the contest carries the typical uncertainties of an early-season maiden.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style information across the field to form a reliable picture. Star Of State is the only horse noted as usually held up and producing its effort late, though that assessment comes with limited evidence. How the race develops early will therefore be difficult to predict, and the key question is whether any runner can impose a rhythm or whether it will become a scramble in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Little Diva KTB Selection52/100Little Diva showed some promise when fifth on debut over 5f.
- 2Someday Somewhere49/100Someday Somewhere is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 3Pink Venom48/100Pink Venom showed some promise when third on debut over 6f before finishing seventh over the same trip here last time.
- 4Star Of State47/100Star Of State showed promise when second on debut over 6f and now steps up to 6½f where he has already placed once without winning.
- 5Scotty Cameron47/100Scotty Cameron is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 6Dear Theodosia46/100First time headgear is fitted for this newcomer.
- 7This That45/100This That is a newcomer from the G M Lyons yard.
- 8Siege Of Tyre44/100Siege Of Tyre showed very little on his only start over 6f and now steps up to 6½f.
- 9El Domino44/100El Domino is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 10Not You Too43/100Not You Too is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8 percent strike rate from 165 runs at Leopardstown.
- 11Whosinterviewinwho42/100Whosinterviewinwho showed little on debut over 7½f and now drops back in trip to a distance it has never tried.
- 12Magma King41/100Magma King is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
The contenders
Little Diva KTB Fit 52/100
Little Diva showed some promise when fifth on debut over 5f. She now steps up to an untested 6½f which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample offers no particular encouragement. Sadhbh Tormey takes the ride with a strong 13% strike rate at the track from a small sample of rides. With a KTB Fit Score of 52 she tops the numbers in a race where experience could count for plenty.
Someday Somewhere KTB Fit 49/100
Someday Somewhere is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The trainer has a solid 10 percent strike rate from 20 runs at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.03. With low data confidence the assessment rests mainly on unassessed pedigree and sales background. W J Lee is in the saddle and brings an 8% strike rate at the track from a huge sample of rides. The KTB Fit Score of 49 keeps him firmly in the conversation among the principals.
Pink Venom KTB Fit 48/100
Pink Venom showed some promise when third on debut over 6f before finishing seventh over the same trip here last time. She steps up to 6.5f now having already placed at the distance without winning. The yard records a 9 percent strike rate from 444 runs at Leopardstown. Rory Mulligan takes the mount with a 9% strike rate at the course from 34 rides. The KTB Fit Score of 48 leaves her right in the mix despite the modest course effort last time.
Star Of State KTB Fit 47/100
Star Of State showed promise when second on debut over 6f and now steps up to 6½f where he has already placed once without winning. The yard has a 12% strike rate from over a thousand runs at Leopardstown. With only one run on the board the form has to be treated with caution. He is the only horse in the field noted as held up and usually producing its effort late, though that comes with limited evidence. The KTB Fit Score of 47 keeps him among the main players.
Scotty Cameron KTB Fit 47/100
Scotty Cameron is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The Kevin Thomas Coleman yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 50 runs at Leopardstown. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to overcome the low data confidence here. Shane Foley rides with an 11% strike rate at the track from a large sample. Rated 47 on KTB Fit he sits on the fringes of the principals in a race short on hard evidence.
The rest of the field
Dear TheodosiaKTB Fit 46/100
Dear Theodosia is a newcomer with first-time headgear fitted. Pedigree and sales background offer the only clues and with low data confidence there is little else to go on. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 16 runs at Leopardstown.
This ThatKTB Fit 45/100
This That is a newcomer from the G M Lyons yard. The trainer holds a solid 12 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample of 969 runs. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence the colt's chance rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background.
Siege Of TyreKTB Fit 44/100
Siege Of Tyre showed very little on his only start over 6f and now steps up to 6½f. The small sample means both his ability and going preference remain unknown. Kieran Cotter has a 5% strike rate from 42 runs at Leopardstown while Rory Cleary's record at the track is too limited to assess.
El DominoKTB Fit 44/100
El Domino is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate from 199 runs at Leopardstown. Data confidence is low so any assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
Not You TooKTB Fit 43/100
Not You Too is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8 percent strike rate from 165 runs at Leopardstown. The low data confidence means any judgement rests mainly on pedigree and sales background rather than racecourse evidence. Connections will hope the colt can show enough on debut to build on from here.
WhosinterviewinwhoKTB Fit 42/100
Whosinterviewinwho showed little on debut over 7½f and now drops back in trip to a distance it has never tried. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate from 199 runs at Leopardstown. With only one run on the board this is very much a watching brief.
Magma KingKTB Fit 41/100
Magma King is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard's modest 4% strike-rate from 53 runs at Leopardstown offers little encouragement. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to overcome the trainer's poor course record.
KTB verdict
Little Diva is the KTB Selection. She showed some promise when fifth on debut over 5f and her experience could prove valuable in a field where so many runners arrive without a run. The step up to 6½f is an unknown but she tops the KTB Fit Scores and the jockey's record at the track adds a positive note. The main dangers are the well-supported Star Of State, who has already placed, and the placed debutant Pink Venom, while the newcomers Someday Somewhere and This That cannot be entirely dismissed on pedigree in a race that lacks depth.
KTB Selection Little Diva
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Little Diva on 52/100.
How many runners have previous racecourse experience?
Four runners have previous racecourse experience: Little Diva, Pink Venom, Star Of State and Whosinterviewinwho.
Which horse is the only one noted with a held-up run style?
Star Of State is noted as held up and usually producing its effort late.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear?
Dear Theodosia.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Leopardstown for the yard of the KTB Selection?
T G McCourt has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 294 runs.
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