4:24 Chester
The 4:24 at Chester is a Class 4 handicap over 6f17y on good ground with an eight-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but open-looking affair. Grasmere Boy tops the Fit ratings on 62 while Art Lover sits just behind on 60, with Sargent Dennis and Inca Heights completing the main principals. The pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to limited run-style data across the field, meaning the race could develop in several ways and place extra emphasis on the draw and how the principals settle.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low on confidence, there is not enough evidence to be certain how the race will unfold. Several runners have shown flexibility in their run-styles and the tight nature of Chester means early position could be key. The main question is whether the horse from stall one can turn that draw into an advantage or whether those drawn higher can overcome any pace-related disadvantages in a race where the leaders may not be strongly contested.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Grasmere Boy KTB Selection62/100Fair performer who arrives in excellent order after two placed efforts and a win at this trip on good ground.
- 2Art Lover60/100Art Lover is a fair 2-year-old who has already won over today's 6f trip.
- 3Sargent Dennis51/100Modest performer who has improved with every run and got off the mark over this trip last time.
- 4Inca Heights48/100Fair performer who has been below form this year and was well beaten on reappearance.
- 5Kody B46/100Fair performer who has already shown his liking for this track when second here on his penultimate start.
- 6Cotai Lights46/100Cotai Lights is a fair performer who has won once over today's 6f trip from five attempts.
- 7Polka Blue45/100Fair performer who has shown decent form this year with two wins from his last four starts.
- 8Kind Touch45/100Fair sort who showed useful promise when winning on debut last season before finishing second in a hot Newbury race.
The contenders
Grasmere Boy KTB Fit 62/100
Grasmere Boy is a fair performer who arrives in excellent order after two placed efforts and a win at this trip on good ground. Stall one is a big plus at Chester and the yard fires at a solid 17% strike rate here. Jockey is less prolific at the track but the colt looks to have more to come. His recent form figures of 221 underline his progress and the KTB Fit score of 62 marks him out as the top-rated in the field. The trainer-jockey combination shows a 1/15 record with an A/E of 0.55 and LSP of +£11.00. He has recorded 1 win from 1 on good going and his lack of previous course experience is offset by the positive yard record at the track.
Art Lover KTB Fit 60/100
Art Lover is a fair 2-year-old who has already won over today's 6f trip. He showed useful form when second at Chester on his penultimate start before a lesser effort on soft ground last time, and first-time headgear is now applied. William Haggas has a solid 22% strike rate at the track while Harry Davies posts a 15% record here. The colt's recent form reads 92187- and he carries a KTB Fit score of 60. The trainer and jockey partnership is in strong form with a 6/22 record, an A/E of 1.28 and LSP of +£8.50. He is unplaced in two runs on good ground but the headgear may help him bounce back to his best Chester effort.
Sargent Dennis KTB Fit 51/100
Sargent Dennis is a modest performer who has improved with every run and got off the mark over this trip last time. Jack Channon's 17% strike rate at Chester is solid and Edward Greatrex's 21% record here adds further encouragement from stall 7. Trip suits and the recent form gives him a clear chance though he still has a bit to find on pure ratings. His form figures read 5221 and the KTB Fit score is 51. This represents a step up in class but the trainer-jockey line stands at 23/119 with an A/E of 1.19 and LSP of +£5.78. He remains unproven on good ground which is the main question mark.
Inca Heights KTB Fit 48/100
Inca Heights is a fair performer who has been below form this year and was well beaten on reappearance. Has won on good ground and placed over today's trip though remains winless after six starts. Trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Chester while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first winner here. Recent form reads 9200-0 and the KTB Fit rating is 48. This is a drop in class which could help and the going record reads 1 win from 1 on good with 1 placed. The trainer-jockey combination shows a 0% strike rate at the track from limited rides for the claimer.
The rest of the field
Kody BKTB Fit 46/100
Kody B is a fair performer who has already shown his liking for this track when second here on his penultimate start. He won over today's trip last season and has the benefit of first-time headgear now, though his two efforts this year have been ordinary. Trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate at Chester. His form is 271-04 and the KTB Fit score is 46. He has been placed once from four runs on good ground and holds a placed effort from his one previous run at the course.
Cotai LightsKTB Fit 46/100
Cotai Lights is a fair performer who has won once over today's 6f trip from five attempts. He has been below form on his last three starts and is now fitted with headgear for the first time. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Chester from 28 runs while this is the horse's first run here and he is 0-2 on good ground. Recent form reads 339400 and the KTB Fit score is 46. He typically settles in midfield.
Polka BlueKTB Fit 45/100
Polka Blue is a fair performer who has shown decent form this year with two wins from his last four starts. He has already won over today's trip but his only run on good ground brought no joy and he has never been to Chester before. Trainer strikes at 9% here while jockey fares a bit better at 14%. Form is -43113 with a KTB Fit of 45. The trainer and jockey record stands at 27/181 with an A/E of 1.03.
Kind TouchKTB Fit 45/100
Kind Touch is a fair sort who showed useful promise when winning on debut last season before finishing second in a hot Newbury race. Has not built on that in two starts this year though and looks a shade below his best right now. Trainer and jockey both sit on 6% strike rates at Chester from modest sample sizes. Recent form is 12-37 and the KTB Fit score is 45. This is a drop in class and he is 0-2 on good ground.
KTB verdict
Grasmere Boy is the KTB Selection and he makes the strongest appeal. A fair performer in excellent order after two placed efforts and a win at this trip on good ground, stall one is a big plus at Chester and the yard's 17% strike rate here adds to his claims. He looks to have more to come and the KTB Fit score of 62 underlines his position at the head of the ratings. Art Lover is the most obvious danger given his Chester second and first-time headgear while Sargent Dennis brings progressive recent form and a strong jockey record at the track. Inca Heights cannot be entirely dismissed on a drop in class and a return to good ground.
KTB Selection Grasmere Boy
This is the narrative read of the 4:24 Chester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best draw at Chester in this race?
Grasmere Boy has the best draw in stall one which is a big plus at Chester.
Who is stepping up in class and who is dropping in class?
Sargent Dennis is stepping up in class while Inca Heights and Kind Touch are dropping in class.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Art Lover, Kody B and Cotai Lights are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse is unproven on good ground?
Sargent Dennis has no runs on good ground and is therefore unproven on the surface.
How many of these runners have previous course form at Chester?
Only Kody B has previous course form at Chester where he finished second.
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