4:26 Perth
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth over 2m7f207y on good ground brings together a compact field of seven where experience and course knowledge will be at a premium. The KTB Fit scores highlight Secret Trix as the clear top pick on 71 while three others sit in the low-to-mid 60s, suggesting a race with a handful of realistic contenders rather than a wide-open affair. Recent form is generally positive across the principals, with several arriving on the back of placed efforts or wins, though the application of first-time headgear to four runners adds an element of unknown.
How the race shapes up
With a mix of run-styles in a small field the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early, though several hold-up performers mean the race could develop into a test of stamina from the home turn. Secret Trix and Lowlands are both capable of racing prominently while Ebselysees and Ballintubber Boy have shown flexibility. The key question is whether the first-time headgear on the top three in the market will sharpen them or whether the proven course winners such as Ebselysees and Lowlands can turn that local knowledge to their advantage in what may become a steadily-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Secret Trix KTB Selection71/100Secret Trix is a high-class performer who has won seven times at today's trip and brings solid recent form with two placed efforts this year.
- 2Ballintubber Boy61/100High-class performer who has won four times at today's trip and boasts a solid record on good ground with six wins from 15 starts.
- 3Ebselysees61/100Useful performer who has won both starts at Perth and also scored at today's trip.
- 4Lowlands60/100Smart performer who has won over course and distance in the past and arrives in excellent order after two recent victories.
- 5Speed Davis56/100Smart performer who has won at this trip in the past and looks sure to stay further.
- 6Spit Spot52/100Smart performer who has won twice over this trip and twice at Perth.
- 7Dalileo52/100Dalileo is a useful 11-year-old with a solid record here, including three wins from 23 runs at Perth.
The contenders
Secret Trix KTB Fit 71/100
Secret Trix is a high-class performer who has won seven times at today's trip and brings solid recent form with two placed efforts this year. He has never won or placed in two runs at Perth though and first-time headgear is now reached for. Olly Murphy's 30% strike rate at the track is a clear plus while Sean Bowen's record here is not supplied. The 9-year-old has 4 wins from 19 starts on good ground and his recent form figures of 723-32 underline that he remains competitive at this level. With the yard in solid form the headgear is the main unknown but he brings the best KTB Fit rating of 71 and looks to have the class to take a hand.
Ballintubber Boy KTB Fit 61/100
Ballintubber Boy is a high-class performer who has won four times at today's trip and boasts a solid record on good ground with six wins from 15 starts. Recent form of 322-64 suggests he remains competitive at this level though he was below par on his latest two outings. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard have a 20% strike rate at Perth while he has course experience from one run here. Dropping in class is a positive and the 9-year-old has shown enough in the past to suggest he can bounce back. The combination of the headgear and the booking of Toby McCain-Mitchell adds interest though the jockey's 0% strike rate at Perth from three rides is noted.
Ebselysees KTB Fit 61/100
Ebselysees is a useful performer who has won both starts at Perth and also scored at today's trip. Comes here in decent form after a recent win but now tries headgear for the first time which is an unknown. Trainer's solid record at the track adds some confidence with a 12% strike rate from 113 runs. The 7-year-old has 2 wins from 7 starts on good ground and his recent form figures of 571-15 show consistent ability. Course form of two wins from two starts is a major plus and he is likely to sit prominently in a race where local knowledge could prove decisive.
Lowlands KTB Fit 60/100
Lowlands is a smart performer who has won over course and distance in the past and arrives in excellent order after two recent victories. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question but the move looks well judged on pedigree and the way he has been progressing. Nicky Richards has a solid 15% strike rate at Perth while Danny McMenamin knows the track well with an 11% strike rate from 230 rides. The 7-year-old has recent form figures of 223-12 and his course record of one win from two starts is encouraging. With 1 win from 7 starts on good ground he should handle conditions and looks sure to go well if the longer trip does not stretch him.
The rest of the field
Speed DavisKTB Fit 56/100
Speed Davis is a smart performer who has won at this trip in the past and looks sure to stay further. Only modest effort when fifth here on return though he did have wind surgery since. McCain has a solid 23% strike-rate at Perth while the trip increase is an interesting positive and he drops in class.
Spit SpotKTB Fit 52/100
Spit Spot is a smart performer who has won twice over this trip and twice at Perth. Looks sure to stay the longer distance and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given a recent patchy record. Trainer's modest 8 percent strike-rate at the track is worth noting while he steps up in class.
DalileoKTB Fit 52/100
Dalileo is a useful 11-year-old with a solid record here, including three wins from 23 runs at Perth. He has won three times at today's trip and three times on good ground, though his recent form of 54-731 shows mixed results and he is now an exposed 50-run veteran. The trainer holds a 10 percent strike rate from 443 runs at the track while Brian Hughes is a positive booking and he steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Secret Trix stands out as the KTB Selection with a clear top Fit rating of 71 and the profile of a high-class performer who has won seven times at this trip. His solid recent placed form and the strong 30% strike rate of Olly Murphy at Perth provide a compelling case even allowing for his modest course record and the first-time headgear. The main dangers are likely to come from Ebselysees, who is two from two at the track and in decent form, and Lowlands who arrives in excellent order after two wins and has course-and-distance experience. Ballintubber Boy cannot be entirely dismissed either if the headgear helps him rediscover his best.
KTB Selection Secret Trix
This is the narrative read of the 4:26 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Perth?
Ebselysees has won both starts at Perth while Dalileo has three wins from 23 runs here and Lowlands and Spit Spot have also won at the track.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Secret Trix, Ballintubber Boy, Ebselysees and Spit Spot.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Perth in this race?
Olly Murphy has a 30% strike rate at Perth from 206 runs, the highest of the trainers represented.
Who has won the most times at today's trip?
Secret Trix has won seven times at today's trip, the highest number in the field.
Which horse is stepping up in trip today?
Lowlands is stepping up in trip today while Speed Davis looks sure to stay further and Spit Spot looks sure to stay the longer distance.
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