4:30 Naas
The 4:30 at Naas is a 19-runner 0-70 handicap over the minimum trip of 5f on good ground. A steadily-run, tactical affair is on the cards given the pace shape that lacks an obvious leader, so being handy from a good draw could prove advantageous. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining the modest level of the race and the likelihood of a competitive result.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the race is set to be steadily-run and tactical. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late. The key question is whether any horse can get into a workable position early enough without using up too much energy in a race where being handy pays.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tawaazon KTB Selection60/100Tawaazon is a limited performer who has been around a long time and shown nothing better than modest form this year.
- 2Simmering Seas59/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in seven runs and finished no better than sixth on either start at Naas.
- 3Aurora Nova57/100Modest performer with a solid placed effort over C&D on his penultimate start but has failed to build on it since.
- 4Prada's World53/100Prada's World is a limited performer who has shown little since an ordinary debut at this track two years ago.
- 5Dandy Land53/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning over this trip at Naas last time.
- 6Gordon Bennett49/100Limited performer who has won over this trip but is dropping back from 7f today.
- 7I'm Spartacus48/100I'm Spartacus is a limited horse who has been busy this year and mixes modest form with the occasional better effort.
- 8Menwirr45/100Modest performer who has shown very little in four starts, finishing no closer than fifth on his most recent outing over 7f.
- 9Nebrook Star45/100Modest performer who has shown little spark this season with a string of poor efforts.
- 10Lismacbryan43/100Limited horse who has shown little spark in two runs this year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 11Steel Magnolia40/100Limited performer who has been placed on both starts at Naas and has shown she can be competitive at this trip on good ground.
- 12Smart Sioux40/100Limited performer who has shown little since her two-year-old days.
- 13Step Back In Time38/100Limited performer who has been out of the winner's circle for a long time.
- 14Pansy Poe37/100Pansy Poe is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and 15 starts.
- 15Whatswrongnow36/100Whatswrongnow is a limited performer who has shown the odd flash of competitiveness without winning in 34 starts.
- 16Amanirenas35/100Amanirenas is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and overall record.
- 17Niobite35/100Niobite has shown very little in four starts to date and sits right at the bottom of the ratings as a limited performer.
- 18Hasiyna34/100Limited performer who has won once over this trip but has otherwise struggled to make a serious impact.
- 19Little Roy34/100Little Roy has shown very little in three starts to date with form figures of 609 and sits right at the bottom of the ability scale for this company.
The contenders
Tawaazon KTB Fit 60/100
Tawaazon is a limited performer who has been around a long time and shown nothing better than modest form this year. He does have a win here from seven runs at Naas and has won four times at this trip from sixteen attempts. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate from 23 runs at the track, with the partnership holding an A/E of 1.43 and recording a small level-stakes profit. An 8-year-old with recent form of 029594, he is drawn in stall 4 and will be held up, producing his effort late. He has two wins from 19 starts on good ground.
Simmering Seas KTB Fit 59/100
Simmering Seas is a limited performer who has shown little spark in seven runs and finished no better than sixth on either start at Naas. He has placed once at this trip but the bare form remains modest and the wide draw is unhelpful. The trainer maintains a solid 12% strike-rate at the track from 34 runs, while the 7lb claimer has a 25% strike rate at Naas from only eight rides. A 3-year-old with form figures of 07-602, he is drawn in stall 12 and will be held up, producing his effort late. He has been placed once from five starts on good ground.
Aurora Nova KTB Fit 57/100
Aurora Nova is a modest performer with a solid placed effort over C&D on his penultimate start but has failed to build on it since. He drops back to 5f having won three times at the trip earlier in his career though recent form is patchy at best. The trainer remains winless from 61 attempts at Naas while the jockey is making his first appearance at the track. A 7-year-old with form of 035900, he is drawn in stall 13 and will be held up, producing his effort late. He has four wins from 20 starts on good ground and has been placed once from three runs at the course.
Prada's World KTB Fit 53/100
Prada's World is a limited performer who has shown little since an ordinary debut at this track two years ago. The recent return was poor and the yard's 11% strike-rate at Naas from 28 runs offers only modest encouragement. Trip and ground both remain open questions with so few runs on the board. A 4-year-old with form figures of 983/0-, he is drawn in stall 11 and will usually be held up. He has no experience of good ground and finished eighth on his sole previous visit to Naas.
Dandy Land KTB Fit 53/100
Dandy Land is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning over this trip at Naas last time. He has won on good ground and the booking of Paddy Harnett is a plus given the jockey's 13% strike rate from 92 rides at the track. Trainer W McCreery has a modest 6% strike rate from 390 runs here. A 4-year-old with form of -68321, he is drawn in stall 16 and will be held up, producing his effort late. He has scored once from one run at the course.
The rest of the field
Gordon BennettKTB Fit 49/100
Gordon Bennett is a limited performer who has won over this trip but is dropping back from 7f today. He has course experience with a win from seven runs at Naas and has shown some ability on good ground with three wins from twenty starts. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track from 102 runners is a concern.
I'm SpartacusKTB Fit 48/100
I'm Spartacus is a limited horse who has been busy this year and mixes modest form with the occasional better effort. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip in the past though without winning, while his record on good ground reads just one win from 17 starts. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 314 runs at Naas.
MenwirrKTB Fit 45/100
Menwirr is a modest performer who has shown very little in four starts, finishing no closer than fifth on his most recent outing over 7f. He drops back to an untried 5f today which asks a fresh question. The trainer records a 5% strike rate from 252 runs at Naas.
Nebrook StarKTB Fit 45/100
Nebrook Star is a modest performer who has shown little spark this season with a string of poor efforts. Drawn in stall 1 which could help but he has failed to win in seven starts at this trip. The trainer records a modest 8% strike rate at Naas from 25 runs.
LismacbryanKTB Fit 43/100
Lismacbryan is a limited horse who has shown little spark in two runs this year and now tries first-time headgear. He has placed over this trip in the past and has a bit of course form at Naas, though the yard's record here is poor. The drop back to 5f asks a fresh question.
Steel MagnoliaKTB Fit 40/100
Steel Magnolia is a limited performer who has been placed on both starts at Naas and has shown she can be competitive at this trip on good ground. Recent form has been patchy with a best of second in a similar race last time but she has failed to win in 17 starts overall. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from a large sample while the jockey has a solid record at the track.
Smart SiouxKTB Fit 40/100
Smart Sioux is a limited performer who has shown little since her two-year-old days. She has failed to place in three runs on good ground and four starts at this trip, while her sole visit to Naas produced a modest sixth. The trainer's 0% strike rate from 27 runs at the track adds further doubt.
Step Back In TimeKTB Fit 38/100
Step Back In Time is a limited performer who has been out of the winner's circle for a long time. He has placed once from six runs at Naas and holds a respectable record on good ground with two wins from 15 starts. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track adds a negative.
Pansy PoeKTB Fit 37/100
Pansy Poe is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and 15 starts. She has been placed without winning at this trip and on this ground but arrives in poor recent form. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate at Naas from 59 runs.
WhatswrongnowKTB Fit 36/100
Whatswrongnow is a limited performer who has shown the odd flash of competitiveness without winning in 34 starts. He has been placed on good ground and at this trip but has failed to land a blow in four runs at Naas. The drop back to 5f today asks a fresh question after his last run over 6f.
AmanirenasKTB Fit 35/100
Amanirenas is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and overall record. She has never shown much at Naas in three previous runs and the trainer's 2% strike rate from 133 attempts at the track adds little encouragement. Dropping back from a mile to an untried 5f poses a fresh question while her five wins from 28 starts on good ground remains the main positive.
NiobiteKTB Fit 35/100
Niobite has shown very little in four starts to date and sits right at the bottom of the ratings as a limited performer. Dropping back to 5f for the first time asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 17 is another negative. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Naas from a big sample adds no encouragement.
HasiynaKTB Fit 34/100
Hasiyna is a limited performer who has won once over this trip but has otherwise struggled to make a serious impact. She showed little at this track on her only visit and has failed to place in seven runs on good ground. The trainer's modest record here adds little encouragement.
Little RoyKTB Fit 34/100
Little Roy has shown very little in three starts to date with form figures of 609 and sits right at the bottom of the ability scale for this company. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Naas while the wide draw in stall 15 is another negative. Trip looks to suit on paper but he has failed to make an impact in his one attempt at this distance.
KTB verdict
Tawaazon is the KTB Selection. A limited performer with plenty of miles on the clock, he brings a course win to the table from seven runs at Naas and has scored four times at this trip from sixteen attempts. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his usual held-up style, and he can capitalise on a kind draw in stall 4. Main dangers are Dandy Land, who showed improved form when winning over this trip at Naas last time, and Aurora Nova, who has a placed effort over C&D on his record.
KTB Selection Tawaazon
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the race look likely to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so no one obviously wants the lead and it should be a steadily-run affair where being handy pays.
Which horse has the best recent course record among the principals?
Tawaazon has won here from seven runs at Naas.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which horse is dropping back in trip after a recent win at Naas?
Dandy Land showed improved form when winning over this trip at Naas last time.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Naas for the yard of Aurora Nova?
The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Naas from 61 runs.
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