4:30 Worcester
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Worcester over 2m4f on good ground features a field of 13 where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. Roadshow heads the figures on 64 with Little Ledgend close behind on 62 and Estacas on 60, while the remainder tail off more sharply. With the pace shape unclear owing to limited run-style evidence, the race poses questions about which horse can best capitalise on the first-time headgear applied to several runners and the various class and trip adjustments on show.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough information on the run-styles across the field to form a firm view of how the race will unfold. Several runners have been placed when held up or racing prominently in the past, but without a clear leader or confirmed front-runner the early gallop is difficult to predict. This leaves the key question as whether the race will be decided by those who can produce a strong late effort or those better placed to take advantage of a steady tempo.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Roadshow KTB Selection64/100Useful performer who arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts and a win last season.
- 2Little Ledgend62/100Useful performer who arrives in solid form with two seconds and a third from his last four starts.
- 3Estacas60/100Useful performer who has run well here in the past, finishing second on his only visit to Worcester.
- 4Midnight Jewel54/100Midnight Jewel is a useful performer with a solid record here including a win from eight runs.
- 5Achille Des Rocs53/100Achille Des Rocs is a useful performer on his day but arrives with a patchy recent record of 55/P-P and has been off since March.
- 6The Grayster52/100The Grayster showed useful ability when second on hurdling debut and was not disgraced when fifth next time before pulling up on third start.
- 7Bashful Boy51/100Useful performer who has placed both starts at Worcester without winning.
- 8Blue Universe51/100Blue Universe is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third from two runs here.
- 9Gone In Sixty50/100Fair performer who has been placed three times at Worcester without winning and drops back to a trip he has won over in the past.
- 10Pivotal Days47/100Pivotal Days is a useful performer on the balance of ratings and race history but has failed to place in seven runs on good ground and showed little at this tra…
- 11Quick Of The Night44/100Fair performer who has won twice at Worcester from nine runs and arrives in decent form with two placed efforts this year.
- 12Medina Blue38/100Medina Blue has shown fair ability on his better days but has been well held in three starts this year.
- 13The Padster35/100The Padster is a fair performer who showed improved form when second on return from a break last time.
The contenders
Roadshow KTB Fit 64/100
Roadshow is a useful performer who arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts and a win last season. He steps up in trip for the first time and makes his Worcester debut while first-time headgear is now fitted. Paul Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at the track from 393 runs and the combination with Freddie Keighley, who has a 15% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 1.45 from 13 rides, adds to the appeal. The yard's overall trainer and jockey record reads 8/43 with an A/E of 0.95 and positive LSP of +£7.10. He has 1 win from 10 starts on good ground with 2 places and drops in class. Recent form reads 3417-6.
Little Ledgend KTB Fit 62/100
Little Ledgend is a useful performer who arrives in solid form with two seconds and a third from his last four starts. He drops back to a trip at which he has already been placed twice and first-time headgear is now applied. Olly Murphy has a 21% strike rate at Worcester from 141 runs while Sean Bowen has a 22% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.08 from 427 rides. Their combined trainer and jockey record stands at 339/1365 with an A/E of 0.97. He is placed once from two starts on good ground without a win and has no course form on record. Recent form reads 4223-2.
Estacas KTB Fit 60/100
Estacas is a useful performer who has run well here in the past, finishing second on his only visit to Worcester. He has shown bits of promise since returning from a break but was well held last time and now tries headgear for the first time while dropping back in trip having been placed without winning at this distance. The yard has a 15% strike rate at Worcester from 33 runs and Luke Scott has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.13 from 25 rides. Their trainer and jockey record is 22/179 with an A/E of 0.74. He has 1 win from 7 starts on good with 3 places. Recent form reads 8/8-23.
Midnight Jewel KTB Fit 54/100
Midnight Jewel is a useful performer with a solid record here including a win from eight runs. He has seven wins from 32 starts at this trip and drops back in distance today after his last run over 2m5f while first-time headgear is an unknown. He has 7 wins from 32 starts on good ground with 14 places. Charlie Longsdon has a 15% strike rate at Worcester from 325 runs and Lilly Pinchin has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.63 from 48 rides. Their trainer and jockey record is 47/347 with an A/E of 0.97. He drops in class. Recent form reads 731PP-.
Achille Des Rocs KTB Fit 53/100
Achille Des Rocs is a useful performer on his day but arrives with a patchy recent record of 55/P-P and has been off since March. He has shown ability on good ground with two wins from six starts and drops back to a trip where he is one from two. The yard posts an 11% strike rate at Worcester from 38 runs and Richie McLernon has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.88 from 285 rides. Their trainer and jockey record is 3/42 with an A/E of 0.77. He has no course form on record. Recent form reads 55/P-P.
The rest of the field
The GraysterKTB Fit 52/100
The Grayster showed useful ability when second on hurdling debut and was not disgraced when fifth next time before pulling up on third start. He steps up in trip today to 2m4f having last run over 2m0½f so this is a fresh question. Dan Skelton has an 18% strike rate from 382 runs at Worcester while Harry Skelton is aboard. He drops in class and has no win or place from one run on good. Recent form reads 25P-.
Bashful BoyKTB Fit 51/100
Bashful Boy is a useful performer who has placed both starts at Worcester without winning. He has shown very little spark in three starts this year and is now 0-7 at this trip while first-time headgear is reached for. The yard has a 14% strike rate at Worcester from 534 runs. He has 2 wins from 20 starts on good with 4 places and has placed on both course visits without winning. Recent form reads 4P/0-3.
Blue UniverseKTB Fit 51/100
Blue Universe is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third from two runs here. He steps up in trip today having already placed without winning at this distance, and his record on good ground is solid if winless. The yard has a 0% strike rate at Worcester from two runs. He has placed on both course visits without winning. Recent form reads 2352F-.
Gone In SixtyKTB Fit 50/100
Gone In Sixty is a fair performer who has been placed three times at Worcester without winning and drops back to a trip he has won over in the past. He is consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 6-4F24 and his record on good ground is modest with just one win from 33 starts. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at the track from 119 runs. Recent form reads 6-4F24.
Pivotal DaysKTB Fit 47/100
Pivotal Days is a useful performer on the balance of ratings and race history but has failed to place in seven runs on good ground and showed little at this track when sixth on his only previous visit. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from ten runs at Worcester. He steps up markedly in trip for the first time today. Recent form reads 4-96.
Quick Of The NightKTB Fit 44/100
Quick Of The Night is a fair performer who has won twice at Worcester from nine runs and arrives in decent form with two placed efforts this year. He steps up to 2m4f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge on his four previous attempts at the trip. The trainer has an 8% strike rate here from 90 runs. He has 2 wins from 17 starts on good with 5 places. Recent form reads 365-33.
Medina BlueKTB Fit 38/100
Medina Blue has shown fair ability on his better days but has been well held in three starts this year. He was seventh on his only visit to Worcester and the yard is struggling for winners here with a zero from 38. He steps up markedly in trip. Recent form reads 22-677.
The PadsterKTB Fit 35/100
The Padster is a fair performer who showed improved form when second on return from a break last time. He steps up in trip today having already placed over this distance without winning and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate from 37 runs at Worcester. He has no win or place from four runs on good. Recent form reads R404-2.
KTB verdict
Roadshow is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer in reasonable form after placed efforts and a win last season, now fitted with first-time headgear as he steps up in trip for his Worcester debut while dropping in class, with Paul Nicholls enjoying a strong 28% strike rate at the track. The headgear may help him find a bit more at a trip that could suit. Main dangers are Little Ledgend, who arrives in solid form with recent placed efforts and also tries first-time headgear back at a suitable distance for Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen, and Estacas, who has a good record at Worcester including a second on his only visit and now tries headgear while dropping back in trip.
KTB Selection Roadshow
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its Worcester debut while stepping up in trip and wearing first-time headgear?
Roadshow, who has no course form on record, steps up in trip for the first time with first-time headgear fitted.
How many wins has Midnight Jewel recorded at Worcester and on good ground?
Midnight Jewel has a win from eight runs at Worcester and has seven wins from 32 starts on good ground.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear in this race?
Roadshow, Little Ledgend, Estacas, Midnight Jewel, Bashful Boy and The Padster are all fitted with first-time headgear.
What is Paul Nicholls' strike rate at Worcester?
Paul Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 393 runs with an A/E of 1.02.
Which horse has won twice at Worcester and is stepping up to 2m4f?
Quick Of The Night has won twice at Worcester from nine runs and steps up to 2m4f for the first time in a while.
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