4:30 York
This Class 4 Azets Handicap over 1m2f56y at York on good to firm ground brings together a field of ten where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 60 and 45. Frankies Dream tops the figures on 60 having run to a fair level without winning of late, while Kahin, Great Bedwyn, Glistening Nights and Prince Of The Seas all sit on 56 and look the main dangers. The race features several first-time headgear applications and some interesting trip and class questions, with the KTB numbers suggesting a competitive renewal where recent form and course knowledge will count for plenty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a truly-run affair with several prominent racers and a couple of confirmed front-runners likely to set a decent gallop. Frankies Dream from stall 2 and Great Bedwyn from stall 1 can be handy early, while Kahin and Ciao Capo are also capable of taking a position. The key question is whether the step up to 1m2f will expose those coming from shorter or allow the likes of Frankies Dream and Prince Of The Seas, who have placed at the trip, to find extra in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Frankies Dream KTB Selection60/100Frankies Dream is a fair performer who has run well in recent starts without quite getting his head in front.
- 2Kahin57/100Fair performer who showed his best yet when winning a 1m1f handicap last time.
- 3Great Bedwyn56/100Fair performer who has won once from four starts here and arrives in decent form after two seconds and a pair of respectable runs.
- 4Glistening Nights56/100Glistening Nights is a fair sort who has shown consistent placed form this year and has won five times at today's trip.
- 5Prince Of The Seas56/100Prince Of The Seas is a fair performer who has shown consistent but limited ability this year with a string of mid-field finishes.
- 6Beach Point54/100Modest performer who has run respectably on his last three starts without threatening to win.
- 7Ciao Capo53/100Modest performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts.
- 8Dark Moon Rising50/100Fair performer who has won once in 19 runs here and has placed form at today's trip.
- 9Stoneacre Donny50/100Fair performer who has been placed on all three starts at this trip and showed up well in both runs here at York.
- 10Bearin Up45/100Fair performer who has been busy and shown some consistency this year with two wins and three places from 13 starts.
The contenders
Frankies Dream KTB Fit 60/100
Frankies Dream is a fair performer who has run well in recent starts without quite getting his head in front. He has won over this course and acts on good to firm ground, though the step up from 1m to 1m2f is an unknown that could suit or expose him. First-time headgear is now added while the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at York. The trainer's record here reads 7% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1 from 29 runs, and the jockey shows 6% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.75 from 609 rides. He has one win from four starts on good to firm with three placed efforts, and he has won once from four runs at the track. Dropping in class from a recent string of placed efforts including seconds and thirds, he is the KTB Selection.
Kahin KTB Fit 57/100
Kahin is a fair performer who showed his best yet when winning a 1m1f handicap last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the yard has a solid 18% strike rate at York from a big sample. Good to firm ground looks fine on the limited evidence available. The trainer and jockey combination shows 23% strike rate with an A/E of 0.98 and positive LSP of +£59.80. The trainer's York record is 18% strike rate with an A/E of 1.01 from 760 runs, and the jockey has 13% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.93 from 78 rides. He has one win from two starts on good to firm with one placed effort and arrives off the back of recent form figures of 7421.
Great Bedwyn KTB Fit 56/100
Great Bedwyn is a fair performer who has won once from four starts here and arrives in decent form after two seconds and a pair of respectable runs. He drops back in trip from 1m4f having already won over today's distance. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from 342 runs at the track while the jockey is still seeking a first York winner from ten rides. The trainer and jockey record stands at 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.81 and LSP of -£121.27. He has one win from six starts on good to firm with two placed efforts, and his course record shows one win from four runs. Recent form reads 6-2828.
Glistening Nights KTB Fit 56/100
Glistening Nights is a fair sort who has shown consistent placed form this year and has won five times at today's trip. He has been placed twice from ten runs at York without winning and acts on good to firm having scored three times from ten starts on it. The Fahey team have a solid 10% strike rate here from 30 runs while McHugh's 4% from 253 rides is more modest. The trainer and jockey combination shows 5% strike rate with an A/E of 0.50 and LSP of -£18.75. His course form from ten runs includes seconds, fourths and fifths but no win, and recent form reads 0-3272.
Prince Of The Seas KTB Fit 56/100
Prince Of The Seas is a fair performer who has shown consistent but limited ability this year with a string of mid-field finishes. He has run twice at York without placing and the yard's modest strike-rate here adds little encouragement though Tudhope's 10% record from 841 rides is respectable. First-time headgear is now tried on good to firm ground where he has won once and placed three times from four starts while he has also placed at this trip. The trainer and jockey record stands at 15% strike rate with an A/E of 0.89. The trainer shows 7% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.77 from 1157 runs, and the jockey has 10% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.85 from 841 rides. Recent form reads -58673.
The rest of the field
Beach PointKTB Fit 54/100
Beach Point is a modest performer who has run respectably on his last three starts without threatening to win. He has won at today's trip but his record on good to firm is ordinary and he was well held when tried here once before. First-time headgear is now applied.
Ciao CapoKTB Fit 53/100
Ciao Capo is a modest performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts. He has won both starts on good to firm ground and is two from two at this trip so the conditions look ideal. Trainer has a solid record at York but the jockey's modest strike rate here is a concern. Stepping up in class.
Dark Moon RisingKTB Fit 50/100
Dark Moon Rising is a fair performer who has won once in 19 runs here and has placed form at today's trip. He has been competitive on good to firm but remains winless on it from nine starts, while his recent form has been ordinary. First-time headgear is now applied and both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track. Dropping in class.
Stoneacre DonnyKTB Fit 50/100
Stoneacre Donny is a fair performer who has been placed on all three starts at this trip and showed up well in both runs here at York. Consistent rather than progressive with form figures of 3-3232 and has failed to win in two runs on good to firm. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track.
Bearin UpKTB Fit 45/100
Bearin Up is a fair performer who has been busy and shown some consistency this year with two wins and three places from 13 starts. Placed on good to firm and at today's trip without winning, though the yard's modest 6 percent strike rate at York and the jockey's 2 percent record here add a negative. First run at the track and drawn in stall 8. Dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Frankies Dream is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with a course win to his name and a string of recent placed efforts, he looks to have a good chance now dropping in class with first-time headgear fitted. The step up to 1m2f is the main unknown but his placed efforts at the trip give hope he will see it out. Main dangers are Kahin, who arrives in excellent order after a recent win and has the benefit of the powerful Haggas yard, and Great Bedwyn, who knows the track well and is proven over the distance. Glistening Nights and Prince Of The Seas, both with placed course form or headgear to help, complete a competitive picture.
KTB Selection Frankies Dream
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at York over this sort of trip?
Frankies Dream has won here from four starts and Great Bedwyn has also won here from four starts.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Frankies Dream, Beach Point, Prince Of The Seas and Dark Moon Rising.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at York in this field?
William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York from 760 runs.
Who has the best recent winning form at this trip?
Ciao Capo is two from two at this trip having won two of his last three starts.
Which horse is dropping back in trip after racing over further?
Great Bedwyn drops back in trip from 1m4f having already won over today's distance.
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