4:35 Curragh
This 0- something Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap over six furlongs at the Curragh on good to firm ground features a field of 15, the majority of whom are modest rather than progressive performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Nazario heading the list on 60, followed closely by Go Athletico on 57, Jon Riggens on 52, Lohoobb on 51 and Sovereign Cry on 50. Most of the runners are held-up types, which becomes particularly relevant given the pace shape, while several arrive in first-time headgear in what looks an open but unremarkable handicap.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner who is unlikely to face any serious pressure. Gerrit's Gem is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and should be allowed an uncontested lead, setting a tempo that could prove difficult for the many held-up performers to overcome in the closing stages. With almost the entire field preferring to race in rear, the key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing speed to bridge the gap once the leader kicks on from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Nazario KTB Selection60/100Modest performer who has shown nothing better than fair form in two runs this season.
- 2Go Athletico57/100Go Athletico is a fair performer with solid course connections, having won twice from 15 starts here, and he has been competitive on good to firm ground with a…
- 3Jon Riggens52/100Fair performer who has won three times at this trip and also landed three races at the Curragh from 27 starts here.
- 4Lohoobb51/100Fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing in the first five on four of his last five starts including two placed efforts at this…
- 5Sovereign Cry50/100Sovereign Cry is a fair 3-year-old with a patchy recent record that includes a win on his penultimate start.
- 6Yutori49/100Modest performer who has shown little for this yard so far.
- 7Mint Man48/100Modest performer who has run five times at the Curragh without winning but has placed.
- 8Gerrit's Gem47/100Gerrit's Gem is a fair performer who has shown placed form over this trip and at this track, including a second here.
- 9All Hail44/100Modest performer who has shown little since an early placed effort at this trip.
- 10Hugo's Girl43/100Modest performer who has been placed twice from three runs at this track without winning.
- 11Beat The Devil43/100Modest performer who has been running over much longer trips lately and now drops sharply back to an untried 6f.
- 12Nouvel Espoir42/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year.
- 13Caislean Ni Cuan41/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date.
- 14Aurora Nova38/100Modest performer who has been out of the frame on her last five starts and finished no better than sixth in seven runs at this track.
- 15Rosato34/100Limited performer who has been placed a few times at this track without winning.
The contenders
Nazario KTB Fit 60/100
Nazario is a modest performer who has shown nothing better than fair form in two runs this season. He drops back to 6f having been placed at the trip last year, although he remains unproven on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried and he is usually held up, producing his effort late. The yard has a 10% strike rate at the Curragh from 851 runs with an A/E of 0.94, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate from 56 rides with an A/E of 1.66. Trainer and jockey combined show a 15% strike rate from 97 runs with an A/E of 1.09 and +£15.50 LSP. The selection has solid connections at the track despite only one previous run here when he finished seventh.
Go Athletico KTB Fit 57/100
Go Athletico is a fair performer with solid course connections, having won twice from 15 starts at the Curragh. He has been competitive on good to firm ground with a placed effort from two runs and drops back to 6f where he has won four times from 26 starts. His recent form of 300262 shows a mixed bag including two placed efforts, and he is usually held up, producing his effort late. First-time headgear is now tried. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at the Curragh from 641 runs with an A/E of 0.66, while the jockey has a 6% strike rate from 974 rides with an A/E of 0.81. Trainer and jockey combined record stands at 11% from 561 runs with an A/E of 0.98 and +£0.78 LSP.
Jon Riggens KTB Fit 52/100
Jon Riggens is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip and landed three races at the Curragh from 27 starts here. Recent form has been patchy but he did land a similar event on his penultimate start and now tries headgear for the first time. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 1097 runs with an A/E of 0.73, while the jockey has a 5% strike rate from 189 rides with an A/E of 0.81. Trainer and jockey combined show a 10% strike rate from 102 runs with an A/E of 0.95 and -£38.92 LSP. He remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Lohoobb KTB Fit 51/100
Lohoobb is a fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing in the first five on four of his last five starts including two placed efforts at this trip. He has no experience at the Curragh and has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 247 runs with an A/E of 1.18, while the jockey has a 9% strike rate from 1478 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Trainer and jockey combined record stands at 8% from 209 runs with an A/E of 0.77 and -£46.12 LSP. He is usually held up, though with medium confidence in that run-style.
Sovereign Cry KTB Fit 50/100
Sovereign Cry is a fair 3-year-old with a patchy recent record that includes a win on his penultimate start. He has shown some ability at this trip before but steps back up from 5f today, while his two runs at the Curragh have produced no better than sixth. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 61 runs with an A/E of 0.83, while the jockey has a 9% strike rate from 1485 rides with an A/E of 0.85. Trainer and jockey combined show a 16% strike rate from 61 runs with an A/E of 1.30 and +£22.66 LSP. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
The rest of the field
YutoriKTB Fit 49/100
Yutori is a modest performer who has shown little for this yard so far. Dropping back from 1m2½f to 6f asks a fresh question and the Curragh run last year was poor. The trainer has a solid 9% strike-rate here from 45 runs with an A/E of 1.18, while the jockey operates at 6% from 375 rides with an A/E of 1.09. He is usually held up and remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Mint ManKTB Fit 48/100
Mint Man is a modest performer who has run five times at the Curragh without winning but has placed. He has won over this trip yet arrives in ordinary form and is unproven on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at the Curragh from 50 runs with an A/E of 1.00, while the jockey has a 7% strike rate from 1904 rides with an A/E of 0.77.
Gerrit's GemKTB Fit 47/100
Gerrit's Gem is a fair performer who has shown placed form over this trip and at this track, including a second here. He has been out of form on his last three starts and remains unproven on good to firm ground. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate at the Curragh from 234 runs with an A/E of 0.53, while the jockey has a 5% record from 120 rides with an A/E of 0.89. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and could be the lone leader in this race.
All HailKTB Fit 44/100
All Hail is a modest performer who has shown little since an early placed effort at this trip. He has run twice at the Curragh without placing and the yard has a poor 4% strike rate here from 541 runs with an A/E of 0.67. First-time headgear is now applied but the overall profile remains unconvincing. The jockey has a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 974 rides with an A/E of 0.86. He is usually held up and remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Hugo's GirlKTB Fit 43/100
Hugo's Girl is a modest performer who has been placed twice from three runs at this track without winning. She drops back to 6f today having been placed at the trip earlier in her career, though she has never tackled good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried by a trainer with a 0% strike rate from 17 runs here with an A/E of 0. The jockey has an 8% strike rate at the Curragh from 59 rides with an A/E of 0.61. She is usually held up.
Beat The DevilKTB Fit 43/100
Beat The Devil is a modest performer who has been running over much longer trips lately and now drops sharply back to an untried 6f. First-time headgear is fitted and the yard has a modest 5% strike rate at the Curragh from 40 runs with an A/E of 0.99. The jockey is 4% from 1104 rides here with an A/E of 0.69. He remains unproven on good to firm ground and is usually held up.
Nouvel EspoirKTB Fit 42/100
Nouvel Espoir is a modest performer who has been in and out this year. He has run 11 times at the Curragh without winning and the trainer is winless from 24 attempts here with an A/E of 0, though the jockey has a solid 12% strike rate from 546 rides with an A/E of 0.82. He goes up to 6f for the first time in a while having been placed at the trip before and acts on good to firm ground with one win from two runs. He is usually held up.
Caislean Ni CuanKTB Fit 41/100
Caislean Ni Cuan is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date. She ran no better than seventh on her only visit to this track and is dropping back to an untried 6f today. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at the Curragh from 194 runs with an A/E of 0.63, while the jockey has a 5% strike rate from 2045 rides with an A/E of 0.64. She is usually held up and has one run on good to firm with no win or place.
Aurora NovaKTB Fit 38/100
Aurora Nova is a modest performer who has been out of the frame on her last five starts and finished no better than sixth in seven runs at this track. The trainer is still seeking a first Curragh winner from 27 attempts with an A/E of 0, while the jockey has a modest 4% strike rate here from 167 rides with an A/E of 0.64. She has won over today's trip but is 0-2 on good to firm ground and is usually held up.
RosatoKTB Fit 34/100
Rosato is a limited performer who has been placed a few times at this track without winning. Recent form is patchy but he did finish second last time and has shown he can be competitive on good to firm with one placed effort from two runs. He has won at today's trip though the trainer has a poor 0% record at the Curragh from 37 runs with an A/E of 0. The jockey has a 5% strike rate here from 58 rides with an A/E of 0.63. He is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Nazario is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer who drops back to a trip at which he has been placed before, now fitted with first-time headgear, while both yard and jockey have solid records at the Curragh. The uncontested lead promised by the pace shape could make life tough for held-up types, yet Nazario's late surge may be well suited if the leader overdoes things. Go Athletico, with his course wins and placed form on good to firm, looks the main danger, while Jon Riggens, Lohoobb and Sovereign Cry are all capable of playing a part on their best days.
KTB Selection Nazario
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Who is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Gerrit's Gem is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead given the pace shape of a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the field are unproven on good to firm ground?
Several runners including Nazario, Jon Riggens, Mint Man, Gerrit's Gem, All Hail, Hugo's Girl, Beat The Devil and Yutori are unproven on good to firm.
Which horse has the strongest course record at the Curragh?
Jon Riggens has won three times at the Curragh from 27 starts, while Go Athletico has won twice from 15 starts here.
Which trainers have a 0% strike rate at the Curragh?
The trainers of Hugo's Girl, Nouvel Espoir and Aurora Nova all have a 0% strike rate at the Curragh.
How many principals are trying first-time headgear?
Nazario, Go Athletico, Jon Riggens and all five principals are trying first-time headgear.
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