4:40 Newbury
This Class 4 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 1m1f at Newbury on good to soft ground features an 11-runner field where several fillies arrive with placed form or strong pedigree. The KTB Fit Scores identify Tarrant as the top-rated at 63/100, ahead of Shady Dame on 57 and Miss Scott on 56, while the remainder sit between 52 and 34. With a genuinely-run pace shape expected, the race looks a fair test that will ask fresh questions of stamina and adaptability on the surface.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types in what is a genuinely-run, fair test according to the pace shape. Tarrant and Miss Scott both tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Shady Dame and Pierpoint usually race handily on or close to the lead. This sets up an honest gallop in which positioning and seeing out the 1m1f will be key, posing the question of which of the prominent runners can maintain their effort longest up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tarrant KTB Selection63/100Tarrant has shown useful ability with two placed efforts from as many starts, most recently finishing third in a slowly run maiden at Ascot over 1m2f.
- 2Shady Dame57/100Shady Dame showed useful ability as a juvenile with a debut second at Newmarket and a respectable sixth in a Group 3 there.
- 3Miss Scott56/100Miss Scott won her only start at Leicester last September on good to soft ground and steps up from 7f to 1m1f today.
- 4Manaar52/100Manaar is a 370,000gns yearling and half-brother to the yard's high-class Dubai Honour.
- 5Pierpoint49/100Pierpoint showed fair form when finishing seventh on debut here over further and backed that up with another placed effort last time.
- 6Aunt Roberta49/100Aunt Roberta is a well-bred Sea The Stars filly who fetched 85,000 euros as a yearling.
- 7Tropical Sands47/100Tropical Sands showed some promise when fourth of 12 on debut at Lingfield last month, finishing with a bit of late headway after starting at 28-1.
- 8Hatta Romance46/100Hatta Romance is a Frankel colt out of a Group 2-winning dam and makes his debut for a yard that has been among the winners lately.
- 9Trelissick45/100Trelissick showed fair form when fourth on debut at Kempton and remains lightly raced after two starts.
- 10Pseudonym41/100Pseudonym is a newcomer by Australia out of a Listed-placed 1m4f winner and is a half-sister to Group 2 winner Ghostwriter.
- 11Mountain Of Light34/100Mountain Of Light showed inexperience and was well beaten on her only start at Haydock in April.
The contenders
Tarrant KTB Fit 63/100
Tarrant has shown useful ability with two placed efforts from as many starts, most recently finishing third in a slowly run maiden at Ascot over 1m2f. She is dropping back in trip to 1m1f today which asks a fresh question while her Newbury third came over 7f on good ground. The Richard Hannon yard has an 11% strike rate at Newbury from 1190 runs and Pat Dobbs is 9% from 621 rides at the track. As the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 63/100 she holds the strongest overall profile. Her figures read RPR 93 and TS 51, she carries a 3yo weight from draw 4, and her front-running style should see her set the pace in a race with a genuinely-run shape. Connections' modest trainer-jockey record of 199/1721 (12% strike rate, A/E 0.83) is noted but she remains the one to beat on balance.
Shady Dame KTB Fit 57/100
Shady Dame showed useful ability as a juvenile with a debut second at Newmarket and a respectable sixth in a Group 3 there. She steps up to 1m1f today which is an unknown and her dam was a 1m6f Group 3 winner so it could suit. The Gosdens have a 15% strike rate at Newbury while Buick is 16% from 664 rides here. Her KTB Fit Score of 57/100 places her second in the rankings and she brings the highest RPR of 94 along with TS 78. As a 2yo from draw 11 she is dropping in class, races prominently, and remains unproven on good to soft. The trainer and jockey combination of 38/157 (24% strike rate, A/E 0.93) adds plenty of appeal though the trip remains a question mark.
Miss Scott KTB Fit 56/100
Miss Scott won her only start at Leicester last September on good to soft ground and steps up from 7f to 1m1f today. The extra distance is an unknown but her pedigree suggests it should suit and the yard's 15% strike rate at Newbury from 176 runs is respectable. First-time headgear is now added to a filly who carries a penalty and must be judged on very limited evidence. She has a KTB Fit Score of 56/100, RPR 88 and TS 48 from her 3yo weight out of draw 5. Her front-running style with limited evidence could see her contest the lead in a genuinely-run race, and she holds a strong 1/1 record on good to soft. The Gosden-Murphy partnership shows 46/160 (29% strike rate, A/E 0.95) which commands respect.
Manaar KTB Fit 52/100
Manaar is a 370,000gns yearling and half-brother to the yard's high-class Dubai Honour. Connections are excellent with Haggas holding a 20% strike rate at Newbury from 696 runs and Marquand a 15% strike rate from 492 rides. Low data confidence means this is all pedigree and stable form with the colt making his debut. Rated with a KTB Fit Score of 52/100, he lines up as a 3yo from draw 3 with no official figures yet. By St Mark's Basilica he represents a yard that can ready one, though the lack of any racecourse form leaves this as very much an unknown in a competitive heat.
Pierpoint KTB Fit 49/100
Pierpoint showed fair form when finishing seventh on debut here over further and backed that up with another placed effort last time. Dropping back in trip to 1m1f asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 11% strike rate at Newbury from a huge sample offers little encouragement. The jockey's 6% record at the track points in the same direction and she remains a maiden with more needed to win this. She holds a KTB Fit Score of 49/100 with RPR 78 and TS 37 from her 3yo weight out of draw 1. Racing prominently with medium confidence, she is unproven on good to soft and her trainer-jockey record reads 15/308 (5% strike rate, A/E 0.56). The Newbury course form of 7th adds limited encouragement.
The rest of the field
Aunt RobertaKTB Fit 49/100
Aunt Roberta is a well-bred Sea The Stars filly who fetched 85,000 euros as a yearling. She is a sister to Australian Group 1 winner Fifty Stars and half-sister to useful performers Revolver and Whiskey Sour, so the pedigree sets a useful standard for her debut. George Scott has a solid 10% strike rate at Newbury from 51 runners while Darragh Keenan is operating at 4% from 24 rides here, and a market check is advised given the lack of any racecourse form. Her KTB Fit Score is 49/100 as a 2yo from draw 7.
Tropical SandsKTB Fit 47/100
Tropical Sands showed some promise when fourth of 12 on debut at Lingfield last month, finishing with a bit of late headway after starting at 28-1. She steps up to 1m1f now having only run once at 1m, which poses a fresh question, and the modest RPR of 72 from that run leaves her with plenty to find in this field. Trainer Ed Walker has a 13% strike rate from 338 runs at Newbury while Kieran Shoemark is 9% from 282 rides here, though the low data confidence from just one run means this assessment should be treated with caution. She has a KTB Fit Score of 47/100, settles in mid-division, and is unproven on good to soft.
Hatta RomanceKTB Fit 46/100
Hatta Romance is a Frankel colt out of a Group 2-winning dam and makes his debut for a yard that has been among the winners lately. Connections paid 22,000gns for him as a 2yo and the pedigree looks attractive enough on paper. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 4% strike rate at Newbury from large samples so the yard will need this one to be above average to land a Class 4 on debut. His KTB Fit Score stands at 46/100 as a 3yo from draw 2.
TrelissickKTB Fit 45/100
Trelissick showed fair form when fourth on debut at Kempton and remains lightly raced after two starts. The step up to 1m1f is a fresh question while the stumble at Windsor last time may have compromised her effort. Andrew Balding has an 11% strike rate at Newbury from 914 runs whereas Callum Hutchinson is operating at 3% from 35 rides here. She holds a KTB Fit Score of 45/100, RPR 80 and TS 59, drops in class, races in mid-division, and is unproven on good to soft from draw 10.
PseudonymKTB Fit 41/100
Pseudonym is a newcomer by Australia out of a Listed-placed 1m4f winner and is a half-sister to Group 2 winner Ghostwriter. She makes her debut for Ollie Sangster who has a 6% strike rate from 31 runs at Newbury while Billy Loughnane has a stronger 15% record from 54 rides at the track. With no racecourse form and low data confidence this is very much an unknown in what looks a warm race for the grade. Her KTB Fit Score is 41/100 as a 3yo from draw 9.
Mountain Of LightKTB Fit 34/100
Mountain Of Light showed inexperience and was well beaten on her only start at Haydock in April. She now steps up in trip to 1m1f as a fresh question while carrying a limited RPR of 58 from that debut. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 17 runs at Newbury and with only one run on her record this is very much a read-with-caution case. She has a KTB Fit Score of 34/100, is held up with limited evidence, and is unproven on good to soft from draw 6.
KTB verdict
Tarrant is the KTB Selection. She brings two placed efforts including a third at Ascot, useful figures of RPR 93 and TS 51, and a front-running style that fits the genuinely-run pace shape. Her drop back to 1m1f is the main query but the Hannon-Dobbs team at Newbury cannot be dismissed. The main dangers are Shady Dame, who brings the best juvenile form and strong Gosden-Buick figures, and Miss Scott, who won on good to soft and now tries first-time headgear. Manaar and the remainder add further depth in what looks a warm novice for the grade.
KTB Selection Tarrant
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Tarrant is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 63/100.
What is the expected pace shape and how does it affect the principals?
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner pressed by several handy types. This suits the front-running styles of Tarrant and Miss Scott as well as the prominent runs of Shady Dame and Pierpoint.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft going?
Tarrant, Shady Dame, Pierpoint, Tropical Sands, Trelissick and Mountain Of Light are unproven on good to soft.
Who adds first-time headgear and what is their recent record?
Miss Scott runs in first-time headgear. She won her only start at Leicester last September on good to soft and steps up from 7f to 1m1f.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Newbury among the principals?
William Haggas has a 20% strike rate at Newbury from 696 runs for Manaar.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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