4:44 Leicester
This Class 4 handicap over six furlongs at Leicester on good to firm ground brings together six three-year-olds with relatively little experience between them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Ray Mon Dough, Art Lover and Sea Cookie all rated in the low sixties, suggesting a competitive renewal where recent form, the application of first-time headgear and an ability to handle a strong pace will be key. Three of the principals are dropping in class while the pace shape points to an uncompromising test.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with two habitual front-runners in Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star both likely to contest the lead from their respective draws. That early speed could set the race up for those racing with cover, and the pace shape suggests the leaders may come back to the field late on. The key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the hold-up performers, several of whom also sport first-time headgear, will be able to pick them off in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ray Mon Dough KTB Selection64/100Fair performer who won over this trip on debut and has shown useful placed form since.
- 2Art Lover61/100Art Lover is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over today's 6f trip.
- 3Sea Cookie61/100Sea Cookie is a fair 3-year-old who arrives in decent nick after two wins this season.
- 4Nuevo Slovo54/100Fair performer who has struggled since winning on debut last season.
- 5Evening Blues48/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of two poor efforts.
- 6Percy's Star46/100Modest performer who has already won over this course in two starts here.
The contenders
Ray Mon Dough KTB Fit 64/100
Ray Mon Dough is a fair performer who won over this trip on debut and has shown useful placed form since. He tends to make the running or race prominently, a style that looks suitable given his draw in three, although the small-sample going note leaves his effectiveness on good to firm unproven. First-time headgear is now applied after two modest efforts and the yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Leicester from seven runs. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 2/16 record with an A/E of 0.91 and positive LSP of +£2.25. Dropping in class from a mark of 78, this looks a good opportunity for a horse whose recent form reads 1-626.
Art Lover KTB Fit 61/100
Art Lover is a fair three-year-old who has already won over today's six-furlong trip. He showed promise when second on reappearance and now tries first-time headgear from a low draw in one. The Haggas yard posts an 18% strike-rate at Leicester from a big sample of 219 runs while Fallon is aboard with a 17% strike rate at the track. His run-style is to be held up and produce his effort late, which could be ideal if the strong pace collapses as expected. Placed once from one start on good to firm, he arrives off the back of form figures of 2187-2.
Sea Cookie KTB Fit 61/100
Sea Cookie is a fair three-year-old who arrives in decent nick after two wins this season. He has already shown he handles this trip and has won twice from four starts on good to firm ground, which adds to his appeal on today's surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. The yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at Leicester from 30 runs, though the jockey is operating at a 9% strike rate here. Dropping in class with form figures of 22-110, he looks a major player from draw five.
Nuevo Slovo KTB Fit 54/100
Nuevo Slovo is a fair performer who has struggled since winning on debut last season. He has failed to beat a rival in two starts this year and is now 0-2 at this trip, though he is dropping in class. Usually held up, his run-style should see him come from off the strong pace. The trainer has a solid 13% strike-rate at Leicester from a small sample of eight runs, but the jockey is yet to score at the track from 16 rides. Recent form of 167-00 suggests he has plenty to prove despite the first-time headgear being absent.
The rest of the field
Evening BluesKTB Fit 48/100
Evening Blues is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of two poor efforts. Placed twice at this trip without winning and has handled good to firm ground in the past though without success, he now tries first-time headgear on his Leicester debut while the yard has too small a sample at the track to judge.
Percy's StarKTB Fit 46/100
Percy's Star is a modest performer who has already won over this course in two starts here. Stepping up from 5f to 6f today having been placed once at the trip without winning, first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer records a modest 8% strike rate at Leicester from a large sample while the jockey has a strong 20% strike rate at the venue.
KTB verdict
Ray Mon Dough is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who won over this trip on debut and has shown useful placed form since, he looks well placed to make the running from draw three in a race with a strong pace likely. First-time headgear may sharpen him up after two modest efforts and the yard's solid record at Leicester adds to his claims. His main dangers are Art Lover, who showed promise on reappearance from a low draw for a top yard, and Sea Cookie, who arrives in decent nick after two wins this season and has an excellent record on good to firm. Nuevo Slovo may struggle to reverse recent poor form.
KTB Selection Ray Mon Dough
This is the narrative read of the 4:44 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star are the two habitual front-runners in the field.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the four principals are wearing first-time headgear: Ray Mon Dough, Art Lover and Nuevo Slovo is not, while Sea Cookie is not listed with the flag.
Which horse has the best recent record on good to firm ground?
Sea Cookie has won twice from four starts on good to firm.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Leicester among the principals?
William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at Leicester from 219 runs with Art Lover.
Which horse has course winning form at Leicester?
Percy's Star has won here from two starts at the track.
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