4:45 Ascot
This Class 2 Betfred Handicap over a mile at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit scores suggest a competitive but not impossible task for the top-rated runners. The principals are headed by Hickory, who edges the ratings on the back of his track record and recent placed effort, while several others step up in class having shown useful form in lesser company. With the pace shape rated unclear due to limited run-style evidence across the field, the race lacks a clear early leader and could develop into a tactical affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough run-style data to form a firm view on how the race will unfold. Spanish Voice is the only horse noted as prominent and usually races handily or close to the lead, while Christian David tends to be held up and produce his effort late; the remainder carry no defined run-style. This lack of defined front-runners or confirmed closers means the key question is whether the race falls apart early or whether a steady gallop allows those with tactical speed or a well-timed run from mid-division to dominate.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hickory KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who has won twice at this track from 11 runs and arrives in reasonable form having been placed on his latest start.
- 2Asmen Warrior63/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with two seconds and a recent win.
- 3Crown Board61/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip from eight attempts and steps back up in distance after his last run over 7f.
- 4Blue Rc60/100Useful performer who has been knocking on the door this year with two wins and several placed efforts.
- 5Spanish Voice57/100Useful performer who has won twice this year and looks well suited by this trip having scored twice from five starts at a mile.
- 6Urban Lion53/100Urban Lion is a useful performer with a solid record at this trip, including four wins from 13 starts.
- 7Grizedale53/100Grizedale is a useful performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and looked progressive when landing back-to-back races earlier this season.
- 8Frankies Dream51/100Frankies Dream is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, placing in four of his last six starts including over this trip.
- 9Salam Dubawi49/100Fair performer who has mixed form this year and was well held when last seen.
- 10Christian David48/100Fair performer who has been running respectably without winning in recent starts.
- 11Spoken Truth41/100Spoken Truth is a fair performer with solid recent form including three seconds and two thirds from his last six starts.
The contenders
Hickory KTB Fit 68/100
Hickory is a useful performer who has won twice at Ascot from 11 runs and arrives in reasonable form having been placed on his latest start. He has shown placed form at this trip without winning it and has a solid record on good to firm ground with one win from nine attempts. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have above-average strike rates here, the trainer recording 12% at Ascot with an A/E of 1.66 from 206 runs and the jockey 13% with an A/E of 1.46 from 137 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 12% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.92. Stepping up in class at the age of eight from a draw of seven, he is the KTB Selection.
Asmen Warrior KTB Fit 63/100
Asmen Warrior is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with two seconds and a recent win. He has already won over this trip on good to firm ground with two wins from six attempts and five places, and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up further. Only one run at Ascot resulted in a midfield finish and both trainer and jockey operate at modest strike rates here, the trainer on 8% with an A/E of 1.17 from 49 runs and the jockey on 10% with an A/E of 0.91 from 134 rides. The overall trainer and jockey record stands at 17% with an A/E of 0.96. Stepping up in class at the age of four from a draw of eight, his recent form reads -23201.
Crown Board KTB Fit 61/100
Crown Board is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip from eight attempts and steps back up in distance after his last run over 7f. He has been competitive on good to firm ground without winning, recording one place from four starts, and now makes his first appearance at Ascot. The trainer has a 7% strike rate here from 135 runs with an A/E of 0.95 while the jockey is on 7% from 504 rides with an A/E of 0.63. Their combined record shows 11% with an A/E of 0.62. From a draw of ten at the age of six his recent form reads 1-4803.
Blue Rc KTB Fit 60/100
Blue Rc is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door this year with two wins and several placed efforts. He has run well at this track before, finishing second on his only visit, and acts on good to firm ground with one win from four attempts and three places. His record at today's trip is solid. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here, the trainer on 7% with an A/E of 0.74 from 81 runs and the jockey on 5% with an A/E of 0.56 from 116 rides. From a draw of nine at the age of four his recent form reads -12292.
Spanish Voice KTB Fit 57/100
Spanish Voice is a useful performer who has won twice this year and looks well suited by this trip having scored twice from five starts at a mile. First-time headgear is now fitted and the horse has shown he handles good to firm ground with one win from two attempts and one place. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.86 from 973 runs and the jockey a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.92 from 857 rides, their combined record showing 16% with an A/E of 1.06. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, though with limited evidence, from a draw of one at the age of four his recent form reads 871015.
The rest of the field
Urban LionKTB Fit 53/100
Urban Lion is a useful performer with a solid record at this trip, including four wins from 13 starts. He has placed once from three runs at Ascot and acts on good to firm ground with a win and two places from seven attempts. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from 36 runs while the jockey is on 8% from 449 rides.
GrizedaleKTB Fit 53/100
Grizedale is a useful performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and looked progressive when landing back-to-back races earlier this season. He has already shown he handles Ascot by finishing third here on his only visit and acts well on good to firm ground with one win from one attempt. The trainer's modest record at the track is a slight concern.
Frankies DreamKTB Fit 51/100
Frankies Dream is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, placing in four of his last six starts including over this trip. He drops back from 1m2½f to a distance where he has shown his best form, acts on good to firm ground with a win and three places from five runs, and tries first-time headgear. The yard has a strong 13% strike rate at Ascot from eight runners while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
Salam DubawiKTB Fit 49/100
Salam Dubawi is a fair performer who has mixed form this year and was well held when last seen. He drops back to a trip at which he has placed once in three attempts though he has failed to place in three runs on this ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ascot.
Christian DavidKTB Fit 48/100
Christian David is a fair performer who has been running respectably without winning in recent starts. He steps up to a mile for the first time since recording his sole success at the trip and is now tried in first-time headgear. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ascot.
Spoken TruthKTB Fit 41/100
Spoken Truth is a fair performer with solid recent form including three seconds and two thirds from his last six starts. He drops back to 1m today having been outpaced over 1m2f last time and his only previous try at the trip brought no joy. The yard and jockey both operate at a 4% strike rate at Ascot from large samples.
KTB verdict
Hickory is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer with two wins at this track from 11 runs, arrives in reasonable form after a latest start place, and has shown placed form at the trip along with a solid record on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now fitted and the above-average Ascot records of both trainer and jockey add to the appeal. His main dangers are Asmen Warrior, who has been consistent with a recent win and could improve further in first-time headgear, and Blue Rc, who has been knocking on the door and has already run well at Ascot.
KTB Selection Hickory
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance at Ascot?
Crown Board and Spanish Voice have no course form on record.
Who is the only runner with a prominent run-style noted?
Spanish Voice is noted as prominent and usually races handily, on or close to the lead, though with limited evidence.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Hickory, Asmen Warrior, Spanish Voice, Frankies Dream and Christian David are all wearing first-time headgear.
How many wins has Hickory recorded at Ascot?
Hickory has won twice at this track from 11 runs.
Which horse has the strongest Ascot trainer strike rate among the principals?
The trainer of Hickory has a 12% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.66 from 206 runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies