4:45 Ayr
A Class 6 handicap over the minimum 5f at Ayr on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine limited performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Startling edging ahead on 59, followed by Supremissy on 56, while the remainder sit between 50 and 35. Dropping in class looks a positive for the selection, yet several runners bring placed course form and first-time headgear is a common thread among the principals and field horses alike.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to an uncontested lead that can prove difficult for closers to overcome. Doon The Glen is the obvious front-runner from his draw in stall three and is expected to set a steady gallop with little pressure. The key question is whether the leader can dictate matters in his own time or if the race will collapse late as the held-up types, including Startling, Supremissy and several others, try to close the gap from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Startling KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 83224.
- 2Supremissy56/100Limited horse who has shown enough to win a race over this trip from three attempts.
- 3Doon The Glen50/100Doon The Glen is a limited performer who has run six times at Ayr without winning, though he has been placed once.
- 4Wee Mary48/100Wee Mary is a limited performer who has been placed on her last two visits to Ayr and has also shown she can be competitive on good to firm ground.
- 5Royal Duke48/100Royal Duke is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 6Henery Hawk46/100Henery Hawk is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year.
- 7Ski Angel43/100Ski Angel is a limited performer who has been around long enough to know her level, with recent form that is ordinary at best.
- 8Summerstorms Dream43/100Limited performer who has been placed five times from seven starts at Ayr without winning.
- 9Sixcor35/100Limited performer who has won once at Ayr and three times at this trip overall yet has looked modest at best on recent starts.
The contenders
Startling KTB Fit 59/100
Startling is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 83224. He drops in class having won at this trip from 25 attempts overall, though he has shown no form on good to firm ground in three tries. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ayr from 68 runs while the jockey is operating at 14% from 538 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. The KTB Fit score of 59 makes him the top-rated in the field.
Supremissy KTB Fit 56/100
Supremissy is a limited horse who has shown enough to win a race over this trip from three attempts. Her recent third at this track reads as her best effort yet and the yard and jockey both have solid records here, the trainer at 11% and the jockey at 9%. The trip looks right but the going remains an unknown on just five career runs as she has had no runs on good to firm. From a low draw she is likely to be held up towards the rear and will need the leader to come back to her if she is to capitalise on that improved Ayr effort. She sits second in the KTB Fit ratings on 56.
Doon The Glen KTB Fit 50/100
Doon The Glen is a limited performer who has run six times at Ayr without winning, though he has been placed once. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip on three of his twelve attempts, and he has a win and two places from six runs on good to firm. First-time headgear is now tried by a yard with a 10% strike rate here and a jockey operating at 15%. His front-running style, with medium confidence, makes him the likely leader in a race with a lone-leader pace shape and he could prove hard to peg back if allowed an uncontested lead. The KTB Fit score is 50.
Wee Mary KTB Fit 48/100
Wee Mary is a limited performer who has been placed on her last two visits to Ayr and has also shown she can be competitive on good to firm ground. She has won at this trip though her overall strike rate is modest and the first-time headgear is now reached after a string of ordinary efforts. The yard has a solid record at the track while the jockey's strike rate here is low. Drawn widest in stall nine she will need to overcome that position, yet her placed course form and ability to handle the ground keep her in the mix among the principals. The KTB Fit score stands at 48.
The rest of the field
Royal DukeKTB Fit 48/100
Royal Duke is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has won over today's 5f trip in the past and returns to the scene of his only course success, though he is 0-6 on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now fitted while the jockey's 16% strike rate at Ayr offers some encouragement. Typically settling in midfield, his KTB Fit score is 48.
Henery HawkKTB Fit 46/100
Henery Hawk is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year. He has placed twice from seven runs at Ayr but has failed to win in six starts on good to firm ground and looks vulnerable from stall eight. The yard's modest record here adds little confidence. Usually held up, his KTB Fit score is 46.
Ski AngelKTB Fit 43/100
Ski Angel is a limited performer who has been around long enough to know her level, with recent form that is ordinary at best. She has won twice from 14 runs at Ayr and holds a solid course record, while she has also won at this trip and shown she can be competitive on good to firm. The yard has an 8% strike-rate here from a huge sample and the 3lb claimer adds little to the equation. Usually held up, her KTB Fit score is 43.
Summerstorms DreamKTB Fit 43/100
Summerstorms Dream is a limited performer who has been placed five times from seven starts at Ayr without winning. He drops back to 5f today having looked as though the extra furlong stretched him last time, though he has only tried the minimum trip once before without success. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than standout records at the track. His KTB Fit score is 43.
SixcorKTB Fit 35/100
Sixcor is a limited performer who has won once at Ayr and three times at this trip overall yet has looked modest at best on recent starts. First-time headgear is a new variable and the yard's modest 6% strike-rate at the track adds little confidence. The jockey is also winless from 12 rides here. Usually held up, his KTB Fit score is 35.
KTB verdict
Startling is the KTB Selection. A modest but consistent performer with recent form of 83224, he drops in class and has already shown he can win at this trip, even if the good to firm ground is a concern having failed to show form on it in three previous runs. The uncontested lead likely to be set by Doon The Glen poses the main threat to late closers, yet the selection's ability to produce his effort late could be well suited if the pace collapses. Supremissy brings a strong recent third at the track and the right trip, while Doon The Glen and Wee Mary add depth with their course placings and first-time headgear. The race looks competitive among these limited types.
KTB Selection Startling
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Doon The Glen, whose front-running style with medium confidence aligns with the lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Two of the four principals, Doon The Glen and Wee Mary, are fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runner has the strongest trainer record at Ayr by strike rate?
Startling's trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ayr from 68 runs, the highest among the trainers of the top four.
Has the KTB Selection won over this trip before?
Yes, Startling has won at this trip from 25 attempts.
Which horse has the best course record in the field?
Ski Angel has won twice from 14 runs at Ayr, the strongest course record shown.
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