4:45 Goodwood
This Class 2 nursery handicap over six furlongs at Goodwood features an 18-runner field of two-year-olds on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit scores point to a competitive race with Innichen heading the numbers on 62, followed by a cluster of principals between 57 and 54. Several runners are stepping up in class while others drop in grade, and with the pace shape reading as tentative on limited evidence the way the race unfolds will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with low confidence, suggesting it is not clear who will take the early lead. Jaijai has a tendency to make the running or race prominently though that is based on limited evidence, while Paper View usually races handily on or close to the pace. Most of the field is likely to race in mid-division or be held up, with Sky Secret among those typically producing its effort late. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with it on a track where a good draw is often an advantage or whether the race will be run at a sufficient pace to suit those coming from off it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Innichen KTB Selection62/100Innichen has shown steady improvement and is now a fair 2yo on the back of two quick wins, the latest at this trip on good to firm.
- 2Jaijai57/100Jaijai is a fair 2yo who has shown consistent form, winning on his only visit to Goodwood and finishing second in both starts since.
- 3Persian Spring56/100Persian Spring is a fair 2-year-old who showed useful speed when winning a 5f maiden on debut before a respectable run in Listed company.
- 4Paper View54/100Modest performer who has shown steady improvement and now has two wins from his last three starts at this trip.
- 5Clash Of Hearts54/100Fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts, finishing second last time.
- 6Revels53/100Revels showed useful early promise when winning on debut but then ran no sort of race in a strong Group 2 next time.
- 7Sovereign Glory53/100Sovereign Glory is a fair 2yo who showed promise when winning on debut over 5f before finishing third in a stronger race last time.
- 8Arabica Queen51/100Modest performer who has already shown she handles Goodwood and this trip.
- 9Sky Secret50/100Fair performer who showed his best when winning a 5f maiden on this ground.
- 10The Dancing Pirate49/100The Dancing Pirate has shown fair form in three runs and has already placed at today's trip.
- 11Dubai Champion49/100Dubai Champion has shown fair form in three runs, finishing a solid third last time.
- 12Wild Terrain49/100Wild Terrain is a fair 2-year-old who has won once in three starts at this trip.
- 13Super Tuscan47/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form in four starts, including a win over this trip on good to firm.
- 14May Bee In Profit39/100Fair performer who has shown steady improvement, finishing with a win over 5f last time.
- 15Perigord Noir39/100Perigord Noir has shown consistent modest form in three starts, finishing no worse than fourth and placing once over today's trip.
- 16Social Spirit39/100Social Spirit is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts this season.
- 17Moonlight Tango38/100Moonlight Tango is a modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a nursery over 5f last time.
- 18Global Success34/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the frame on two of his four starts including a placed effort at this trip.
The contenders
Innichen KTB Fit 62/100
Innichen has shown steady improvement and is now a fair 2yo on the back of two quick wins, the latest at this trip on good to firm. Stall one at Goodwood looks ideal and the yard's 15% strike rate here from 74 runs adds confidence. The trainer and jockey combination posts a 17/73 (23%) record with an A/E of 1.21 and +£13.89 LSP. Lightly raced on this ground but the sole run produced a win. The step up in class is noted yet the colt arrives in excellent order and the KTB Fit score of 62 marks him out as the one to beat.
Jaijai KTB Fit 57/100
Jaijai is a fair 2yo who has shown consistent form, winning on his only visit to Goodwood and finishing second in both starts since. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having last run over 5f, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Goodwood from 787 runs while the jockey is on 10% from 657 rides at the track. Their combined record reads 206/1766 (12%) with an A/E of 0.84 and -£401.51 LSP. A tendency to make the running or race on the pace could be an asset if the pace shape remains tentative.
Persian Spring KTB Fit 56/100
Persian Spring is a fair 2-year-old who showed useful speed when winning a 5f maiden on debut before a respectable run in Listed company. He steps up to 6f today having already won at the trip, which looks a sensible move. The trainer and jockey record stands at 11/111 (10%) with an A/E of 0.70 and -£0.68 LSP. The yard is on 11% at Goodwood from 787 runs and the jockey on 12% from 589 rides here. However the wide draw in stall 14 is a negative at this track and there are two runs on good to firm with neither producing a win or a place.
Paper View KTB Fit 54/100
Paper View is a modest performer who has shown steady improvement and now has two wins from his last three starts at this trip. He handles good to firm ground well with two wins from three runs and has the benefit of a good draw in stall five. The trainer and jockey combination shows 50/455 (11%) with an A/E of 0.81 and -£128.77 LSP, while the jockey is 17% at Goodwood from 47 rides with an A/E of 1.31. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence in that run-style, he is stepping up in class but arrives in form.
Clash Of Hearts KTB Fit 54/100
Clash Of Hearts is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts, finishing second last time. Has already won over today's trip and the form looks solid enough in this company. The trainer posts a 7% strike rate at Goodwood from 15 runs with an A/E of 0.8 while the jockey is 0% from three rides here. Their combined record is 8/64 (13%) with an A/E of 1.01 and -£25.06 LSP. Stepping up in class, he is placed once from one run on good to firm and holds a KTB Fit score of 54.
The rest of the field
RevelsKTB Fit 53/100
Revels showed useful early promise when winning on debut but then ran no sort of race in a strong Group 2 next time. The form of that first win still reads fair for a Class 2 and the drop back to 6f is an open question rather than a negative. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Goodwood from 239 runs while the jockey is 18% from 17 rides here.
Sovereign GloryKTB Fit 53/100
Sovereign Glory is a fair 2yo who showed promise when winning on debut over 5f before finishing third in a stronger race last time. He steps up to 6f today for the first time since an unsuccessful run at the trip, which asks a fresh question of him. The wide draw in stall 17 adds to the unknowns from a yard with a 9% strike rate at Goodwood.
Arabica QueenKTB Fit 51/100
Arabica Queen is a modest performer who has already shown she handles Goodwood and this trip. She has won once from three starts on good to firm and looks straightforward on recent form figures of 4213. The Portman yard posts an 8% strike-rate here from 272 runs while Rob Hornby is aboard.
Sky SecretKTB Fit 50/100
Sky Secret is a fair performer who showed his best when winning a 5f maiden on this ground. He steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Usually held up and produces its effort late with limited evidence, the trainer has a 10% strike rate from 459 runs at Goodwood.
The Dancing PirateKTB Fit 49/100
The Dancing Pirate has shown fair form in three runs and has already placed at today's trip. He is lightly raced on good to firm ground so that side remains an unknown. Andrew Balding has a 12% strike rate from 852 runs at Goodwood while Oisin Murphy is the booked rider.
Dubai ChampionKTB Fit 49/100
Dubai Champion has shown fair form in three runs, finishing a solid third last time. He now steps up to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Ben Haslam has only two runs at Goodwood so the sample is too small to judge, while Ryan Moore has a 16% strike rate at the track.
Wild TerrainKTB Fit 49/100
Wild Terrain is a fair 2-year-old who has won once in three starts at this trip. He showed useful speed when scoring on debut yet has been well held in two subsequent runs in stronger company. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Goodwood from 149 runs while the jockey is unproven at the track.
Super TuscanKTB Fit 47/100
Super Tuscan is a fair performer who has shown mixed form in four starts, including a win over this trip on good to firm. He ran respectably when fifth here on his penultimate start but failed to build on that last time. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at Goodwood from a large sample.
May Bee In ProfitKTB Fit 39/100
May Bee In Profit is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement, finishing with a win over 5f last time. Steps up to 6f today having already placed once at the trip, though the extra furlong does pose a fresh question. Trainer's modest 2% strike rate from 64 rides at Goodwood is a negative.
Perigord NoirKTB Fit 39/100
Perigord Noir has shown consistent modest form in three starts, finishing no worse than fourth and placing once over today's trip. He now steps up from 5f with first-time headgear and is drawn wide in stall 10, which adds uncertainty at this track. The yard's 7% strike rate from 269 runs at Goodwood reflects limited success here.
Social SpiritKTB Fit 39/100
Social Spirit is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts this season. He has failed to land a blow at this trip on both attempts and is drawn widest of all in stall 18. The Easterby yard has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Goodwood.
Moonlight TangoKTB Fit 38/100
Moonlight Tango is a modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a nursery over 5f last time. Stepping up to 6f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Goodwood from a large sample is another negative.
Global SuccessKTB Fit 34/100
Global Success is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the frame on two of his four starts including a placed effort at this trip. He has a bit to find on recent form but the first-time headgear could sharpen him up. Trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track from 138 runs is a negative.
KTB verdict
Innichen is the KTB Selection. He has improved with every run, capped by two quick wins including one at this trip on good to firm, and the ideal draw in stall one combined with the yard's solid record at Goodwood makes him the most straightforward contender. The tentative pace shape could play to his strengths from a low berth. His main dangers are Jaijai, who has course-winning form and a prominent run-style, and Paper View, who is in form, handles the ground and has a good draw of his own. Persian Spring and Clash Of Hearts also have solid claims if they can overcome their respective wide draw and step up in class.
KTB Selection Innichen
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Goodwood. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Goodwood racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does stall one look ideal for Innichen at Goodwood?
Stall one at Goodwood looks ideal for Innichen according to the KTB Intelligence assessment and the colt's prominent run-style potential from a low draw in a race with a tentative pace shape.
How many wins has Paper View recorded on good to firm ground?
Paper View has two wins from three runs on good to firm.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Goodwood for the yard of the selection Innichen?
Jack Channon has a 15% strike rate at Goodwood from 74 runs.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear in this race?
Perigord Noir is wearing first-time headgear.
What is the combined trainer-jockey record at Goodwood for the connections of Jaijai?
Richard Hannon and Pat Dobbs have an 11% and 10% strike rate respectively at Goodwood from 787 and 657 runs/rides.
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