4:45 Newbury
This Class 2 BetVictor Watch Weekend Winners EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes over 6f at Newbury features a small but competitive field of six two-year-olds, all but one stepping up in class after early career runs. The KTB Fit scores range from 62 down to 44, highlighting a race where progressive types with limited experience dominate the numbers. Conditions are good to firm, which several runners have already handled successfully, and the overall KTB assessment points to a contest likely to be decided by which horse shows the most scope for further improvement.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence, as there is thin evidence of an obvious front-runner in the field. Coat Of Red is the one horse whose run-style suggests it will make the running or race prominently from stall 1, while the other five are all noted as settling in mid-division or held up. This setup poses the key question of whether the leader can get an easy enough time upfront or whether the race will develop into a more tactical affair with the closers timed right from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Spirit Of Lyra KTB Selection62/100Spirit Of Lyra is a fair 2yo who has shown steady improvement, winning over this trip on good to firm at the second attempt.
- 2Sorrengail57/100Sorrengail has shown fair ability in two starts, winning over this trip on good to firm at Newmarket last time.
- 3Coat Of Red54/100Coat Of Red is a fair 2-year-old who has shown enough in two starts to suggest he can be competitive at this level.
- 4Evenfall50/100Evenfall made a winning start over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run behind it.
- 5Ferrystream50/100Ferrystream won his only start over this trip on good to firm ground.
- 6Nonrem44/100Nonrem showed only modest promise when sixth on debut over 5f.
The contenders
Spirit Of Lyra KTB Fit 62/100
Spirit Of Lyra is a fair 2yo who has shown steady improvement, winning over this trip on good to firm at the second attempt. The yard has a solid 9% strike rate at Newbury from a big sample of 151 runs with an A/E of 1.01 and the horse is well drawn in stall 2. Tom Marquand takes the ride on a horse who still looks open to further progress. Trainer and jockey combined show a 1/18 record with an A/E of 0.39. The colt has recorded a win from one run on good to firm and has no course form on record. KTB rates this one top of the pile with a Fit score of 62.
Sorrengail KTB Fit 57/100
Sorrengail has shown fair ability in two starts, winning over this trip on good to firm at Newmarket last time. The yard has a strong 25% strike rate at Newbury from a big sample of 184 runs with an A/E of 0.93 and William Buick is on board. With only two runs in the book the form must be treated cautiously but the going and trip look suitable. Trainer and jockey combined show an 838/2829 record with an A/E of 0.95. The filly has a win and a place from two runs on good to firm and has no course form on record. KTB gives this one a Fit score of 57.
Coat Of Red KTB Fit 54/100
Coat Of Red is a fair 2-year-old who has shown enough in two starts to suggest he can be competitive at this level. He won on good to firm over today's trip last time out and the Crisford yard's 10% strike rate at Newbury from 82 runs is respectable though below par on an A/E of 0.64. Callum Rodriguez takes the ride. Trainer and jockey combined show a 4/15 record with an A/E of 1.24. The horse has a win from one run on good to firm and has no course form on record. Its front-running style could be influential given the tentative pace shape and it carries a KTB Fit score of 54.
Evenfall KTB Fit 50/100
Evenfall made a winning start over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run behind it. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Newbury from 61 runs with an A/E of 0.92. Data confidence remains low given the small sample and lightly-raced profile. Trainer and jockey combined show a 166/888 record with an A/E of 0.86. The horse has a win from one run on good to firm and has no course form on record. It is likely to be held up and produce its effort late according to its run-style and carries a KTB Fit score of 50.
The rest of the field
FerrystreamKTB Fit 50/100
Ferrystream won his only start over this trip on good to firm ground. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 101 runs at Newbury with an A/E of 0.48. With just one run on the board overall the form needs treating with caution. Trainer and jockey combined show a 3/12 record with an A/E of 1.12. The horse is likely to be held up and it carries a KTB Fit score of 50.
NonremKTB Fit 44/100
Nonrem showed only modest promise when sixth on debut over 5f. He now steps up to 6f for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Brian Meehan has an 8% strike rate from 1201 runs at Newbury with an A/E of 0.85. The horse is likely to be held up and it carries a KTB Fit score of 44.
KTB verdict
Spirit Of Lyra is the KTB Selection. A fair 2yo who has already shown steady improvement by winning over today's trip on good to firm at the second attempt, the horse is well drawn in stall 2, represents a yard with a solid record at Newbury and remains open to further progress. The main dangers are likely to come from Sorrengail, who brings fair ability and a recent Newmarket success on good to firm, and Coat Of Red, whose front-running style could prove an asset in a race with only tentative pace on offer. Evenfall cannot be entirely dismissed despite the step up to 6f posing a fresh question.
KTB Selection Spirit Of Lyra
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a winning 5f debut?
Evenfall, who made a winning start over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time.
Who is the only front-runner in the field according to run-style?
Coat Of Red tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Newbury for the yard of the KTB Selection?
William Knight has a 9% strike rate at Newbury with an A/E of 1.01 from 151 runs.
Which horse has shown only modest promise on debut and is now trying 6f?
Nonrem, who was sixth on debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time.
How many of these runners have already won on good to firm ground?
All six runners have at least one win or placing on good to firm with the exception of Nonrem, who has one run on the surface without a win or place.
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