4:45 Nottingham
This Class 4 fillies' handicap over 1m 75y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of just five runners, most of them lightly raced 3-year-olds. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Porth Eilian rated 64, Darzah 62 and Distant Shore 55, underlining a race where progressive form, trainer course stats and ground suitability will carry significant weight. Official ratings, recent form and the supplied trainer strike rates at Nottingham all point to a competitive renewal where the principals hold the aces.
How the race shapes up
With no pronounced front-runner in the field the pace shape looks likely to be even or steadily run, allowing those with the ability to quicken off a fair gallop to come to the fore. Porth Eilian from stall two and Darzah in three are ideally placed to track the early pace before delivering their efforts, while Distant Shore from the outside draw may have to work a little harder to get a good position. The key question is whether the first-time headgear on Distant Shore and Great Mates will sharpen them sufficiently to match the upwardly mobile form of the top two.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Porth Eilian KTB Selection64/100Fair sort who has won two of his last three starts, including at this trip.
- 2Darzah62/100Darzah is a fair 3-year-old who has won two of his four starts including at this trip.
- 3Distant Shore55/100Fair performer who won on debut and has held his form well since, finishing placed on his only previous run at this trip.
- 4Great Mates52/100Fair performer who has won twice this year and ran a solid second over course and distance on his penultimate start.
- 5Luna Celeste42/100Luna Celeste is a fair 3 year old with solid recent form including two wins and two seconds from just four starts.
The contenders
Porth Eilian KTB Fit 64/100
Porth Eilian arrives in excellent order having won two of his last three starts, including over today's trip. A fair performer who goes well on good to firm, he has already shown he acts on the surface with two wins and a placing from three runs. The draw in stall two is a positive and the yard's 24% strike rate at Nottingham from 50 runs adds further confidence. Edward Bethell teams up with Callum Rodriguez, whose 17% strike rate at the track from 66 rides is also respectable. Stepping up in class is the only slight concern, yet the recent form figures of -54131 suggest he is up to the task.
Darzah KTB Fit 62/100
Darzah is a fair 3-year-old who has already won two of his four starts, one of them at this trip. He showed he handles good to firm when successful on that surface and the yard's 18% strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample of 385 runs is a solid pointer. Stall three looks fine from a tactical point of view and the recent form figures of 5181 indicate he is competitive at this level. William Haggas and Tom Marquand combine, though their respective course strike rates are 18% and 11%. Overall the package suggests he should be in the thick of it once again.
Distant Shore KTB Fit 55/100
Distant Shore is a fair performer who won on debut and has held his form well since, finishing placed on his only previous run at this trip. He has already won on good to firm and the yard’s 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 268 runs adds confidence. First-time headgear is now fitted, which introduces an unknown element into the equation. Ray Dawson takes the ride and brings a 16% strike rate at the track. From draw five he may need a bit more luck in running than those drawn lower, yet his consistency makes him a definite player.
The rest of the field
Great MatesKTB Fit 52/100
Great Mates is a fair performer who has won twice this year and ran a solid second over course and distance on his penultimate start. He has form on good to firm, is proven at this trip and has placed here before, though first-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer's 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 214 runs is modest.
Luna CelesteKTB Fit 42/100
Luna Celeste is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including two wins and two seconds from just four starts. She has already shown she acts on good to firm ground and has placed over today's trip though she is yet to win at it. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham from 55 runs is a negative.
KTB verdict
Porth Eilian is the KTB Selection. He has won two of his last three starts including at this trip, goes well on good to firm, and is nicely drawn in stall two while the trainer's 24% strike rate at Nottingham is a positive. Darzah is the obvious danger, a fair sort who has won twice from four starts, handles the ground and benefits from a strong yard record at the venue. Distant Shore cannot be dismissed either, given his consistency and the addition of first-time headgear, while Great Mates and Luna Celeste are likely to find at least one too good on these terms.
KTB Selection Porth Eilian
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent win rate at the trip?
Porth Eilian and Darzah have both won at this trip, with Porth Eilian winning two of his last three starts overall.
How does the first-time headgear affect the principals?
Distant Shore and Great Mates both wear first-time headgear; for Distant Shore it is described as the unknown while for Great Mates it is also an unknown.
Which trainer has the strongest Nottingham course record among the principals?
Edward Bethell has a 24% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.31 from 50 runs.
What is the pace profile for this small field?
The pace shape is even or steadily run with no pronounced front-runner, so the race is likely to be decided by those who can quicken off a fair gallop.
Which horse is proven over course and distance?
Great Mates ran a solid second over course and distance on his penultimate start and has placed here before.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies