4:45 Stratford
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m2f148y on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of five. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Getmetothemoon and Edelak both on 66 and Donnie Azoff just behind on 63, pointing to a competitive renewal where progressive younger horses meet experienced course winners. Recent form is generally positive and three of the runners sport first-time headgear, adding an extra layer of interest to how the race will unfold.
How the race shapes up
With a small field and no obvious front-runner among the run-styles, the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side early on. Getmetothemoon and Donnie Azoff are likely to track the pace while Edelak can sit comfortably off it, and the race may well be decided from the second last as the tempo lifts. The key question is whether the step up in trip for the top two principals will play to their strengths or allow the more experienced trip winners to close in late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Getmetothemoon66/100Useful performer who has won two of three starts at Stratford and is backed by a strong trainer record here.
- 2Edelak KTB Selection66/100Smart and progressive, this four-year-old has won three of his last four starts including a comfortable success here on his only previous visit to Stratford.
- 3Donnie Azoff63/100Smart performer who has won twice at this track and twice at today's trip.
- 4War Correspondent58/100War Correspondent is a high-class performer who arrives with solid placed form at this level but has been hit and miss of late with a recent unseated.
- 5Snatch A Glance56/100Smart performer who has already shown plenty around here when fourth on his only previous visit to Stratford.
The contenders
Getmetothemoon KTB Fit 66/100
Getmetothemoon is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts at Stratford and is backed by a strong trainer record here with a 36 percent strike rate and A/E of 1.57. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning over this distance before, while his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. First-time headgear is now applied as he tries to add to his course record. The trainer and jockey combination brings an 11/64 strike rate overall though the jockey has a perfect record from two rides at the track. Recent form of 16346- shows flashes of ability and he remains one to consider given his local prowess.
Edelak KTB Fit 66/100
Edelak is smart and progressive, this four-year-old has won three of his last four starts including a comfortable success here on his only previous visit to Stratford. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question but the yard's strong record at the track and his own good-to-firm win suggest he will handle the conditions. First-time headgear is the only unknown for a horse whose recent form of 6-2111 underlines his upward curve. The Skelton team bring a 22 percent strike rate at Stratford from a large sample and Harry Skelton has a solid 24 percent record at the venue. With a KTB Fit Score matching the top rating he holds strong claims.
Donnie Azoff KTB Fit 63/100
Donnie Azoff is a smart performer who has won twice at this track and twice at today's trip. Recent form is solid with two wins from his last four starts and he arrives in good order. First-time headgear is an interesting addition but he remains unproven on good to firm ground. The yard has an 18 percent strike rate at Stratford and the jockey, though operating at a 9 percent level here, teams up with a trainer whose overall A/E is a healthy 1.13. His course record of two wins from four starts makes him a respected contender in a race where local knowledge counts.
The rest of the field
War CorrespondentKTB Fit 58/100
War Correspondent is a high-class performer who arrives with solid placed form at this level but has been hit and miss of late with a recent unseated. He steps up in trip having failed to win in seven tries at this distance and is unproven on good to firm ground having never raced on it. First-time headgear is now applied for a yard with no previous runners at Stratford.
Snatch A GlanceKTB Fit 56/100
Snatch A Glance is a smart performer who has already shown plenty around here when fourth on his only previous visit to Stratford. He drops back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles and that distance change asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 15 percent strike rate at the track from a big sample while the yard's 5 lb claimer is also up on the horse.
KTB verdict
Edelak stands out as the KTB Selection. His progressive profile, three wins from his last four starts and a comfortable course success on his sole previous visit to Stratford give him a clear edge, while the Skelton team's record at the track and his proven ability on good to firm ground suggest he can overcome the step up in trip. Getmetothemoon, with his excellent course record and first-time headgear, is the most obvious danger, while Donnie Azoff cannot be dismissed given his two wins here and solid recent form. The race looks likely to revolve around how these three handle the conditions and the extra distance.
KTB Selection Edelak
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won the most times at Stratford?
Getmetothemoon and Donnie Azoff have each won twice at Stratford; Edelak has won once from one visit.
How many of the runners are wearing first-time headgear?
All five runners are wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has previous good-to-firm form?
Edelak has one win from one run on good to firm; Snatch A Glance has one win from two runs on good to firm. Getmetothemoon has one run on good to firm with no win or place.
Who steps up in trip for this race?
Getmetothemoon and Edelak are both stepping up in trip.
Which trainer has the strongest Stratford strike rate among those with runners?
Anthony Honeyball has a 36 percent strike rate at Stratford.
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