4:45 Wexford
The 4:45 at Wexford is a 2m180y maiden hurdle on good ground featuring a field of 16. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks pace, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy could prove advantageous. Plastic Paddy is the KTB Selection despite a modest Fit Score of 54, heading a clutch of principals rated between 51 and 54 who bring varying degrees of placed form or recent promise.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no one wants the lead, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair. Most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, which should suit the shape provided the race does not collapse. The key question is whether any horse can make stealthy ground from the rear or whether those settling with a bit of mid-division cover will be best placed to strike when the tempo lifts.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Plastic Paddy KTB Selection54/100Plastic Paddy has a dismal recent record of three consecutive pulled-ups and has failed to complete in both starts at this track.
- 2Penny Express52/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form on good ground, landing the frame in four of six starts.
- 3Earthwatch52/100Earthwatch is a useful performer on his best days and brings solid recent form having finished fourth in three of his last four starts.
- 4Tomthescaffolder52/100Tomthescaffolder has shown fair form on both starts at this track and arrives in reasonable heart after two placed efforts this year.
- 5Tell Me See51/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and both poor efforts.
- 6Sea Eagle49/100Sea Eagle has shown fair form on a few occasions but his recent efforts include a fall and he remains inconsistent.
- 7Run For Power47/100Run For Power has shown very little in two starts over this trip, finishing well beaten on both occasions.
- 8You Lift Me Up47/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with just one run in the last year and a small overall sample.
- 9Ribadora46/100Ribadora has shown very little in three starts so far with a recent 0-57 sequence that offers no encouragement.
- 10Storm Eric44/100Storm Eric brings plenty of racing miles under his belt but arrives off a lengthy absence with a recent run over a much shorter 1m2½f.
- 11Champagne Diamond43/100Champagne Diamond has shown only modest form in four completed starts and was pulled up on its sole run this season.
- 12Kingston Silver42/100Kingston Silver is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 13Rosenborg42/100Useful performer who showed some promise when second on his most recent start.
- 14Sum Story41/100Sum Story has shown very little so far with a string of modest efforts and only one run in the last year.
- 15Drumconnor Hill40/100Lightly raced with only three runs in the last year and a poor recent sequence of P2-847 that leaves plenty to prove.
- 16Langage Du Large39/100Langage Du Large is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
The contenders
Plastic Paddy KTB Fit 54/100
Plastic Paddy has a dismal recent record of three consecutive pulled-ups and has failed to complete in both starts at this track. The yard holds a solid 13% strike-rate at Wexford yet the 5lb claimer is operating at a modest 6% here from 35 rides. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse that has never placed on good ground or over this trip. An 8-year-old with form figures of PPP, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. The KTB Fit Score stands at 54 and he is the selection.
Penny Express KTB Fit 52/100
Penny Express is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form on good ground, landing the frame in four of six starts. He has a bit to find on recent efforts though and was only fourth when tried here before. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 13% strike rate at Wexford. The 6-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. With form figures of 3-P454 and a KTB Fit Score of 52 he remains a solid player on his best days.
Earthwatch KTB Fit 52/100
Earthwatch is a useful performer on his best days and brings solid recent form having finished fourth in three of his last four starts. He drops back to 2m having been well held over further last time, though he is 0-3 at this trip so far. The yard has an 8% strike rate at Wexford from 100 runs while the jockey is on 4% from 54 rides here. A 4-year-old with form figures of 4-4C4, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. His KTB Fit Score is 52.
Tomthescaffolder KTB Fit 52/100
Tomthescaffolder has shown fair form on both starts at this track and arrives in reasonable heart after two placed efforts this year. He drops back to 2m having failed to land a blow over that trip on his only previous attempt and the small overall sample leaves his optimum distance unclear. Henry De Bromhead holds a solid 19% strike rate here from a big sample while Darragh O'Keeffe is operating at 15%. The 6-year-old with form figures of 46-43 is held up and usually produces his effort late. His KTB Fit Score is 52.
Tell Me See KTB Fit 51/100
Tell Me See is lightly raced with just two runs this year and both poor efforts. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample means going suitability remains unknown. Trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at Wexford from 34 runs. A 5-year-old with form figures of 9-8, he is held up though with limited evidence. The KTB Fit Score is 51.
The rest of the field
Sea EagleKTB Fit 49/100
Sea Eagle has shown fair form on a few occasions but his recent efforts include a fall and he remains inconsistent. He steps up in trip today having been mainly campaigned over shorter and his sole previous try at this distance brought no joy. The trainer has yet to strike at Wexford from seven runners while the jockey has a respectable record here. KTB Fit 49.
Run For PowerKTB Fit 47/100
Run For Power has shown very little in two starts over this trip, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Wexford from 44 runs but the jockey is operating at a modest 6% from 34 rides here. With such a small overall sample the form is hard to weigh up. KTB Fit 47.
You Lift Me UpKTB Fit 47/100
You Lift Me Up is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just one run in the last year and a small overall sample. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 318 runs at Wexford. Trip form is also limited with one run at this distance and no success, while the going remains unknown. KTB Fit 47.
RibadoraKTB Fit 46/100
Ribadora has shown very little in three starts so far with a recent 0-57 sequence that offers no encouragement. The trip is no new question having already tried 2m without success and the small sample means any going preference remains unknown. Trainer Eoin Christopher McCarthy records a 6% strike rate from 47 runs at Wexford. KTB Fit 46.
Storm EricKTB Fit 44/100
Storm Eric brings plenty of racing miles under his belt but arrives off a lengthy absence with a recent run over a much shorter 1m2½f. He steps up sharply in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while his record on good ground shows one placing from eight starts without a win. The jockey has a solid 14% strike-rate from 112 rides at Wexford yet the trainer has no previous runners here. KTB Fit 44.
Champagne DiamondKTB Fit 43/100
Champagne Diamond has shown only modest form in four completed starts and was pulled up on its sole run this season. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited racecourse exposure. Trainer is operating at a 0% strike rate from five runs at Wexford while the jockey has a solid 9% record from 266 rides here. KTB Fit 43.
Kingston SilverKTB Fit 42/100
Kingston Silver is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative. Trainer Lanigan has yet to strike at Wexford from 11 runners while Mullins has a modest 10% strike rate from nearly 200 rides at the track. KTB Fit 42.
RosenborgKTB Fit 42/100
Rosenborg is a useful performer who showed some promise when second on his most recent start. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Wexford while the jockey is still seeking his first winner at the track from seven rides. KTB Fit 42.
Sum StoryKTB Fit 41/100
Sum Story has shown very little so far with a string of modest efforts and only one run in the last year. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample means we have no reliable read on ground or course. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here. KTB Fit 41.
Drumconnor HillKTB Fit 40/100
Drumconnor Hill is lightly raced with only three runs in the last year and a poor recent sequence of P2-847 that leaves plenty to prove. Has already been tried over this trip without success and finished seventh on his only visit to Wexford. Trainer operates at a 5% strike rate here from 58 runs while the jockey records a 10% strike rate from 70 rides. KTB Fit 40.
Langage Du LargeKTB Fit 39/100
Langage Du Large is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only pointers here but the data confidence remains low. Trainer has had only three runners at Wexford while the jockey operates at a 4% strike rate from 24 rides at the track. KTB Fit 39.
KTB verdict
Plastic Paddy is the KTB Selection in a race where the lack of an obvious leader makes it tactical and steadily-run. Despite three consecutive pulled-ups and no completed course runs here, first-time headgear is applied and the yard's 13% strike rate at Wexford offers some hope in a maiden where several principals bring only fair or modest recent form. The main dangers are likely to come from Penny Express, who has shown consistent placed form on good ground, and Tomthescaffolder, who has fair form at the track and is in reasonable heart. Earthwatch and Tell Me See add further depth though questions remain over trip and overall profile for all involved.
KTB Selection Plastic Paddy
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Wexford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wexford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear being fitted to Plastic Paddy?
First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse that has never placed on good ground or over this trip.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Wexford among the principals?
Tomthescaffolder's trainer Henry De Bromhead holds a solid 19% strike rate here from a big sample.
How many of the field are held-up types?
The majority of principals and field runners are described as held up, usually producing their effort late.
What does the pace shape suggest about race tactics?
Lacks a leader so likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from a recent poor effort over further?
Earthwatch drops back to 2m having been well held over further last time.
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