4:45 York
This 19-runner Class 2 Heritage Handicap over the minimum trip at York on good ground looks a typically competitive sprint. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Baker Blue narrowly heading the numbers on 68, just ahead of Zain Primus on 67 and Naana's Shadow on 64. Several three-year-olds step up or drop in class while the strong pace anticipated could play a significant part in how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong, and there is high confidence it could collapse late. Revival Power, Dolos Dream, Baker Blue and potentially Miss Yechance or Underwriter are all likely to be prominent or making the running early. That sets up a race that could favour hold-up performers such as Naana's Shadow, Schrodinger's Cat and several others coming from off the pace, with the key question being which horses handle the anticipated burn-up best.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Baker Blue KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who has run creditably on good ground, placing twice from five starts.
- 2Zain Primus67/100Zain Primus is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 311 and has already won at this trip from his only attempt.
- 3Naana's Shadow64/100Useful performer who has won five times in just 11 starts including a victory here at York.
- 4Revival Power63/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from three runs here.
- 5Schrodinger's Cat57/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third here in recent runs.
- 6Stargazed56/100Stargazed is a fair performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second here last season before two respectable efforts this year.
- 7Poatan55/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first three on all five career starts including two placed efforts at this trip.
- 8One And Gone55/100Fair performer who has shown a decent level of consistency this year with two wins at this trip.
- 9Tricky Tel54/100Fair performer who has won twice over this trip but is now dropping back from 6f.
- 10Call Margot52/100Fair performer who has won over this trip but has been inconsistent lately with a string of modest efforts.
- 11Miss Yechance52/100Useful performer who has won three times over this trip from nine attempts and handles good ground well with a win and a place from three starts.
- 12Dolos Dream50/100Dolos Dream is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts.
- 13Manatee Mehmas50/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing placed twice from three starts at this track.
- 14Black Star Boy49/100Useful performer who has already shown he handles this track and trip.
- 15Old Is Gold47/100Fair performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season and was well beaten on his only previous visit to York.
- 16Shes Got A Brother47/100Fair performer who has already won twice at this trip.
- 17Mighty Magnus45/100Mighty Magnus is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year without progressing into better company.
- 18Underwriter42/100Fair performer who has not shown much spark since early in the season and finished a remote 20th when tried here last time.
- 19Boston Dan39/100Boston Dan is a fair performer who has run well in defeat over this track twice without winning, including a pair of placed efforts.
The contenders
Baker Blue KTB Fit 68/100
Baker Blue is a useful performer who has run creditably on good ground, placing twice from five starts. He has won over this trip but has been a bit in and out lately with form figures of 100263. The Dylan Cunha yard strikes at a solid 20% rate here while Callum Rodriguez's 11% record from 154 rides is respectable enough. Drawn in stall 11, Baker Blue tends to make the running or race on the pace. He is the KTB Selection and brings the right blend of ability and trainer course form to the race.
Zain Primus KTB Fit 67/100
Zain Primus is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 311 and has already won at this trip from his only attempt. The John Butler yard holds a 14% strike rate at York from 49 runs while Ray Dawson is operating at a strong 23% strike rate here from 39 rides. With only three career starts the horse remains lightly raced and not fully exposed. He steps up in class here and is unproven on good ground. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, though that judgement is based on limited evidence.
Naana's Shadow KTB Fit 64/100
Naana's Shadow is a useful performer who has won five times in just 11 starts including a victory here at York. Three wins from four starts on good ground underline her effectiveness in these conditions while the recent form of 131191 shows consistent competitiveness at this level. The Katie Scott yard has an 8% strike rate at the track and Oisin Murphy sits on a 15% record from 325 rides. She is held up and produces her effort late with high confidence. Stall 15 is a clear negative on a track where the far side has been favoured of late.
Revival Power KTB Fit 63/100
Revival Power is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from three runs here. Recent form has been patchy with figures of 15-700 but the York record and strong jockey figures at the course offer some hope from stall 18. Tim Easterby has a modest 6% strike rate here from a huge sample, which is a negative. Colin Keane, by contrast, boasts a 25% strike rate at York from 20 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and drops in class.
Schrodinger's Cat KTB Fit 57/100
Schrodinger's Cat is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third here in recent runs. He has won twice at this trip and handles good ground, though his overall strike-rate remains modest. The Grant Tuer yard’s record at York is below par at 8% and Oliver Stammers has a poor 2% strike rate here from 42 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps up in class having recorded form figures of 831265.
The rest of the field
StargazedKTB Fit 56/100
Stargazed is a fair performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second here last season before two respectable efforts this year. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip earlier in his career, though his recent form has been patchy and he now tries first-time headgear. The yard's modest strike rate at York is offset by the jockey's solid record at the track.
PoatanKTB Fit 55/100
Poatan is a useful performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first three on all five career starts including two placed efforts at this trip. Drawn widest in a big field and faces a stiff task from stall 14. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at York.
One And GoneKTB Fit 55/100
One And Gone is a fair performer who has shown a decent level of consistency this year with two wins at this trip. He handles good ground well and has the benefit of a solid draw in stall four. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at York but nothing in the data suggests the horse is unsuited by the track.
Tricky TelKTB Fit 54/100
Tricky Tel is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip but is now dropping back from 6f. Has shown decent form on good ground with two wins and four places from five runs. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York while this is the horse's first run here.
Call MargotKTB Fit 52/100
Call Margot is a fair performer who has won over this trip but has been inconsistent lately with a string of modest efforts. She has already been beaten here at York and her record on good ground shows she is competitive without being a standout. The trainer's modest strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's strong record here.
Miss YechanceKTB Fit 52/100
Miss Yechance is a useful performer who has won three times over this trip from nine attempts and handles good ground well with a win and a place from three starts. Recent form of 154273 shows she is competitive at this level but she can blow hot and cold. Trainer has a 9% strike rate at York from a large sample while the jockey is 1-30 here.
Dolos DreamKTB Fit 50/100
Dolos Dream is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts. He has already shown he handles this track when finishing second here and acts well on good ground having won his only start on it. Dropping back to 5f looks a sensible move given his two wins from four runs at the trip though the wide draw in stall 16 is a clear negative.
Manatee MehmasKTB Fit 50/100
Manatee Mehmas is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing placed twice from three starts at this track. First-time headgear is now fitted after a respectable fourth last time, and the yard's long record here adds some context even if the strike-rate is modest. Trip suits and the draw looks workable from stall 13.
Black Star BoyKTB Fit 49/100
Black Star Boy is a useful performer who has already shown he handles this track and trip. He has won over 5f on good ground and his York record reads two runs without a placing, so he is not obviously well treated from stall 1. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest strike rate here adds another negative.
Old Is GoldKTB Fit 47/100
Old Is Gold is a fair performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season and was well beaten on his only previous visit to York. He has won on good ground and at this trip but the first-time headgear is now needed to spark a revival from a wide draw. Trainer Andrew Balding has a solid 14% strike rate here while Saffie Osborne sits on 7%.
Shes Got A BrotherKTB Fit 47/100
Shes Got A Brother is a fair performer who has already won twice at this trip. She showed decent form when fourth over this course and distance on her penultimate start but has been below that level on her last two outings. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York.
Mighty MagnusKTB Fit 45/100
Mighty Magnus is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year without progressing into better company. He has run twice at York without placing and the jockey's modest 2% strike rate here adds little confidence. He has won twice at this trip on good ground and that looks his best chance of a competitive run.
UnderwriterKTB Fit 42/100
Underwriter is a fair performer who has not shown much spark since early in the season and finished a remote 20th when tried here last time. He has a win on good ground but remains winless in three runs at this trip and the recent form figures offer little encouragement. Jockey Luke Morris has a solid 10% strike rate at York from 129 rides.
Boston DanKTB Fit 39/100
Boston Dan is a fair performer who has run well in defeat over this track twice without winning, including a pair of placed efforts. He drops back to 5f today having won at the trip earlier in his career, though his recent form has been ordinary and the wide draw in stall 17 is far from ideal. The yard has a modest 6% strike-rate here from a huge sample while the jockey is operating at just 2%.
KTB verdict
Baker Blue is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who has run creditably on good ground, placing twice from five starts on it, and has already won over this trip. The trainer's 20% strike rate at York from 20 runs stands out in a race where several yards are operating below their usual level at the track, while his prominent run-style should see him well placed if the strong pace materialises as expected. The main dangers are Zain Primus, who remains lightly raced and not fully exposed with strong jockey figures at the venue, and Naana's Shadow, whose York win and excellent record on good ground make her a major player if she can overcome the far-side draw.
KTB Selection Baker Blue
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most favoured by the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses are favoured as the strong pace is likely to collapse late.
How many wins has Naana's Shadow recorded on good ground?
Three wins from four starts on good.
What is Revival Power's record at York?
Won here (1 from 3).
Which principals step up in class for this race?
Zain Primus, Naana's Shadow and Schrodinger's Cat step up in class.
What is the trainer's strike rate at York for the selection Baker Blue?
20% strike rate at York · A/E 2.02 (20 runs).
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies