4:45 York
The 4:45 at York is a Listed race for two-year-olds over the minimum trip of five furlongs on good to soft ground. A field of twelve juveniles lines up, several of whom bring useful form for the age and some with progressive profiles. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Hanney Boy just heading the numbers in a race where experience, ground adaptability and how the strong pace unfolds will be key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and confidence in that assessment is high. Hickory Lad, Adonius, Jaan Ki Tukri, Silesia and Roots In Touche all tend to race prominently or make the running, which sets up the likelihood of an honest gallop that could collapse in the final furlong. That scenario would play to the strengths of the hold-up performers such as Hanney Boy, Dance A Jig, El Floridita, Sale Shark, Dubai Champion and Undercover Affair. The key question is whether the prominent group can get away with it or if the race will be won from off the pace late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hanney Boy KTB Selection64/100Hanney Boy has shown consistent form in a busy five-run juvenile campaign, finishing no worse than third and landing a win at this trip.
- 2Dance A Jig63/100Useful performer who has finished first or second in all four starts and has already won over this trip.
- 3Hickory Lad62/100Useful performer who has shown a good level of consistency with form figures of 212138.
- 4El Floridita60/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip from four starts.
- 5Adonius57/100Adonius has won three of his four starts including a victory on this good-to-soft ground and holds a useful level of form for a two-year-old.
- 6Sale Shark57/100Useful performer who has shown that standard in three of his four starts including a win over this trip.
- 7Jaan Ki Tukri50/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing in the first three on all three attempts over 5f.
- 8Dubai Champion47/100Dubai Champion is a fair 2-year-old with solid recent form including a win and a second.
- 9Dorigo47/100Dorigo has shown fair form across three starts with a placed effort on debut and a solid second last time out.
- 10Silesia42/100Silesia is a fair 2-year-old with consistent placed form, finishing in the first three in all four starts including two placings at today's 5f trip.
- 11Roots In Touche42/100Fair sort who has shown steady progress in three runs and already has a win over today's trip on the board.
- 12Undercover Affair41/100Fair performer who has won twice at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in reasonable form after a recent win.
The contenders
Hanney Boy KTB Fit 64/100
Hanney Boy has put together a busy yet consistent juvenile campaign, finishing no worse than third in five starts while landing a win at this trip. He now steps into Listed company for the first time and connections reach for first-time headgear in the hope of extracting a bit more. The yard boasts a 100% strike rate at York from a tiny sample, though the jockey's record at the track reads a modest 5% from 64 rides. Unproven on good to soft ground and with no previous course form, he remains relatively lightly raced. His run-style is to be held up and produce his effort late, which looks ideal given the expected strong pace that could collapse. The KTB Fit Score of 64 tops the field.
Dance A Jig KTB Fit 63/100
Dance A Jig has finished first or second in all four starts and already boasts a win over today's distance. He is another stepping up in class while drawn in stall 11, which is far from ideal on a straight five at York. The Ralph Beckett yard posts a solid 13% strike rate at the track from 349 runs and Rossa Ryan is a capable deputy with his own 13% record here. He has been placed once from one run on good to soft, though with only four starts overall the going suitability is not yet fully established. Like the selection he is a hold-up type with limited evidence so far, which could prove advantageous if the leaders go hard early. His KTB Fit Score of 63 places him right in the mix.
Hickory Lad KTB Fit 62/100
Hickory Lad has shown useful consistency with form figures of 212138 and has already won over this five-furlong trip. Dropping back to 5f after his latest run over 6f looks a positive move, and he also has a win on good to soft from his one attempt on the surface. Phillip Makin's 8% strike rate at York from 36 runs is respectable in context while Sam James takes the ride. His front-running style, with medium confidence, means he is likely to be one of those setting the strong pace that the racecard highlights. That could leave him vulnerable late if the gallop collapses, yet his proven ability at the trip and on the ground keeps him firmly in the conversation. The KTB Fit Score reads 62.
El Floridita KTB Fit 60/100
El Floridita has won over this trip from just four starts and his recent form of 5125 mixes solid placed efforts with a couple of lesser runs. Connections at York are high-class and the jockey Tom Marquand brings a 14% strike rate at the track. Nigel Tinkler's 6% strike rate from a large 587-run sample at York is a negative that cannot be ignored. He is another hold-up performer with medium confidence in that assessment, which again aligns well with the strong pace anticipated. The ground remains unproven on good to soft, adding a layer of uncertainty to his profile. His KTB Fit Score stands at 60.
Adonius KTB Fit 57/100
Adonius has won three of his four starts, including a success on this good-to-soft ground, and he arrives in peak shape after a narrow second last time. He has been consistent at this trip and holds a useful level of form for his age. Rebecca Menzies' yard has a 0% strike rate from 26 runs at York, which is a clear negative, while the jockey's record here is also modest. His front-running tendencies with medium confidence suggest he will be prominent and help ensure the race is run at a strong gallop. That could play against him if the leaders fold late, but his progressive profile and ground match make him one of the principals. The KTB Fit Score is 57.
The rest of the field
Sale SharkKTB Fit 57/100
Sale Shark has shown the useful standard in three of four starts including a win over this trip. Drawn low where his trainer has a modest 7% strike rate from a big sample at York, though Oisin Murphy takes the ride. Ground remains an unknown on good to soft and the KTB Fit Score is 57.
Jaan Ki TukriKTB Fit 50/100
Jaan Ki Tukri has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing in the first three on all three attempts over 5f. He drops back from 6f having won over that distance last time, though his recent form of 322910 also includes a disappointing effort. The yard has a 9% strike rate at York and the KTB Fit Score reads 50.
Dubai ChampionKTB Fit 47/100
Dubai Champion is a fair 2-year-old with solid recent form including a win and a second. He has won on good to soft and at this trip though drops back from 6f after finishing second last time. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at York is a concern despite Ryan Moore taking the ride and the KTB Fit Score is 47.
DorigoKTB Fit 47/100
Dorigo has shown fair form across three starts with a placed effort on debut and a solid second last time out. Dropping back to 5f for the first time asks a fresh question while the good-to-soft ground remains unknown. The Kevin Ryan yard posts an 8% strike rate from 1220 runs at York and the KTB Fit Score is 47.
SilesiaKTB Fit 42/100
Silesia is a fair 2-year-old with consistent placed form, finishing in the first three in all four starts including two placings at today's 5f trip. Dropping back from 6f looks sensible and the York draw is fine, though the yard's modest 8% strike rate from 1220 runs here tempers expectations. The small sample on good to soft means the ground remains an unknown and the KTB Fit Score is 42.
Roots In ToucheKTB Fit 42/100
Roots In Touche has shown steady progress in three runs and already has a win over today's trip on the board. Drawn widest of all which is rarely ideal at this track and the yard's modest 5% strike-rate at York is another negative. Still lightly raced so the going remains an unknown and the KTB Fit Score is 42.
Undercover AffairKTB Fit 41/100
Undercover Affair has won twice at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in reasonable form after a recent win. He has run just once at York, finishing fourth, while the yard's modest 5% strike rate from 259 runs here adds a note of caution. Unproven on good to soft ground and the KTB Fit Score reads 41.
KTB verdict
Hanney Boy is the KTB Selection. He has been admirably consistent in a busy five-run campaign, has already won over the trip, and his hold-up run-style looks perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold. First-time headgear is an interesting addition at this higher level while the yard's perfect record at York from a small sample offers some encouragement. The main dangers are headed by Dance A Jig, whose near-perfect record gives him strong claims if he can overcome the wide draw, and Hickory Lad, who brings a win on good to soft and is likely to be prominent. El Floridita and Adonius round out the principals and cannot be dismissed, while the remainder of the field look held on the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection Hanney Boy
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Hickory Lad, Adonius, Jaan Ki Tukri, Silesia and Roots In Touche all tend to make the running or race prominently.
Why might hold-up horses be favoured?
The pace shape is strong with two or more habitual front-runners and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Who has a win on good to soft ground?
Hickory Lad, Adonius and Dubai Champion all have a win on good to soft.
Which trainer has a 100% strike rate at York in the data supplied?
Miss Evanna McCutcheon has a 100% strike rate at York from one run.
Which horses are stepping up in class?
Dance A Jig, Dubai Champion, Dorigo, Silesia, Roots In Touche and Undercover Affair are all stepping up in class.
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