4:47 Downpatrick
This 18-runner Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle at Downpatrick over 2m5f185y brings together a competitive field of largely unproven or smart performers on the prevailing ground. The KTB Fit Scores highlight a tight top end, headed by Cozone at 68, Nakassama at 65 and Joya Del Mar at 60, with several others clustered in the mid-50s. First-time headgear is widespread, many runners step up or down in trip, and course form is a recurring positive for a number of the principals in a race where the numbers suggest little between the best of them.
How the race shapes up
With a field this size and several runners whose recent form points to prominent racing or mid-division tracking, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early before quickening. Several course winners and placed horses will look to secure a good early position from the stands rail, while those stepping up in trip may be content to settle. The key question is whether the race falls apart in the straight or if the stronger travellers can assert from mid-pack, particularly given so many are unproven on the ground and wearing headgear for the first time.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cozone KTB Selection68/100Cozone is a smart performer with a solid record here, winning two of his three starts at Downpatrick.
- 2Nakassama65/100Nakassama is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two recent wins and has already shown his liking for this track with a victory from three starts.
- 3Joya Del Mar60/100Smart performer with a solid record here, winning two of six starts at Downpatrick including a recent success over this trip.
- 4Andys Flame57/100Smart performer who has won over hurdles at this track from four runs here.
- 5Typical Thomas56/100Typical Thomas is a smart performer with solid course connections, including a win from four runs at Downpatrick.
- 6Ringdufferin56/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 7Mephisto55/100Smart performer who has won five times and looks well treated on his best form.
- 8Ivybrook55/100Ivybrook is a smart performer on the balance of ratings and past races but arrives here on the back of two poor efforts and having been off since March.
- 9Mickey Cohen55/100Useful performer who has already won over course and distance.
- 10Oh Janey54/100Oh Janey is a useful performer who has already won over course and distance at Downpatrick.
- 11Morell River51/100Useful performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing fourth on his latest visit here.
- 12Eastern Wind49/100Eastern Wind is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and long race record but arrives on the back of two poor efforts and steps up markedly in trip…
- 13Tribal Moon49/100Smart performer who has not shown that level of ability for some time and finished only seventh when tried here on his sole visit.
- 14Caher Roes Den46/100Useful performer who has been consistent in defeat this season with three placed efforts from his last four completed starts.
- 15Boston Beach46/100Useful performer who has shown enough in four starts to suggest he can be competitive at this level.
- 16Adaliz46/100Adaliz is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins.
- 17Fabhcun45/100Useful performer who has not shown his best this season with a string of modest efforts including two pulled-up finishes.
- 18Tolka Row42/100Tolka Row is a useful performer who has shown some promise on his better days but has been inconsistent of late with a pulled-up effort last time.
The contenders
Cozone KTB Fit 68/100
Cozone is a smart performer with a solid record here, winning two of his three starts at Downpatrick. He has shown consistent form of late with a win and two placed efforts from his last three outings, though he steps up in trip today having last run over 2m2f. The first-time headgear is an unknown and he is unproven on this ground. Trainer Matthew J Smith has a 16% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 1.3 from 49 runs, while Keith Donoghue operates at 14% from 216 rides at the track. Their combined record reads 12/111 (11%) with an A/E of 0.96. Recent form figures read /16-31 and he carries a KTB Fit of 68.
Nakassama KTB Fit 65/100
Nakassama is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two recent wins and has already shown his liking for this track with a victory from three starts. He has won at today's trip and the booking of McGill, who holds a 13% strike-rate from 47 rides here, is a positive. The first-time headgear is an unknown and he remains unproven on this ground. Trainer Noel C Kelly has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 0.81 from 198 runs. Recent form figures read 692-12 and he carries a KTB Fit of 65.
Joya Del Mar KTB Fit 60/100
Joya Del Mar is a smart performer with a solid record here, winning two of six starts at Downpatrick including a recent success over this trip. Has won twice from his last three starts and the first-time headgear could sharpen him further. Trainer and jockey both have above-average strike rates at the track though the horse remains unproven on this ground. Dermot A McLoughlin posts a 9% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 1.15 from 151 runs, while Patrick M O'Brien is 13% from 32 rides here. Recent form figures read 9-0161 and he carries a KTB Fit of 60.
Andys Flame KTB Fit 57/100
Andys Flame is a smart performer who has won over hurdles at this track from four runs here. He returns from a short break in first-time headgear having been well held on his last two starts and now steps up in trip for the first time in a while. The yard has a solid record at Downpatrick while the jockey is operating at a similar level. John C McConnell has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.93 from 302 runs; Alex Harvey is 11% from 72 rides. Recent form figures read 1/4-60 and he carries a KTB Fit of 57.
Typical Thomas KTB Fit 56/100
Typical Thomas is a smart performer with solid course connections, including a win from four runs at Downpatrick. He steps up in trip today having shown modest form on his last two starts over shorter, and the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track is a clear negative. The jockey has an above-average record here but the horse remains unproven on this ground. James Andrew Fahey's record with Conor Smithers reads 0/11 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00. Recent form figures read /68-94 and he carries a KTB Fit of 56.
The rest of the field
RingdufferinKTB Fit 56/100
Ringdufferin is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is a bit patchy but the return to Downpatrick looks a positive and first-time headgear could sharpen him up. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here while the horse remains unproven on the ground. He carries a KTB Fit of 56.
MephistoKTB Fit 55/100
Mephisto is a smart performer who has won five times and looks well treated on his best form. He showed very little on his only previous run here and is unproven on this ground while dropping back in trip. First-time headgear is a positive but the trainer and jockey both have modest records at Downpatrick. He carries a KTB Fit of 55.
IvybrookKTB Fit 55/100
Ivybrook is a smart performer on the balance of ratings and past races but arrives here on the back of two poor efforts and having been off since March. The yard has a solid 9% strike-rate at Downpatrick from a big sample while the jockey is operating at a modest 4%. This is his first run at the track, he is unproven on the ground and he steps up in trip for the first time today. He carries a KTB Fit of 55.
Mickey CohenKTB Fit 55/100
Mickey Cohen is a useful performer who has already won over course and distance. Recent form of 4312-4 shows consistent placed efforts and he steps back up in trip today having been narrowly beaten last time at a slightly shorter distance. Trainer Noel Meade has a strong 25% strike rate at Downpatrick from 260 runs while the horse remains unproven on this ground. He carries a KTB Fit of 55.
Oh JaneyKTB Fit 54/100
Oh Janey is a useful performer who has already won over course and distance at Downpatrick. She steps up in trip today having last run over 2m, which asks a fresh question, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Trainer Crawford has a modest 6% strike rate here from a big sample, though jockey Sam Ewing fares better with a 16% record from 55 rides at the track. She carries a KTB Fit of 54.
Morell RiverKTB Fit 51/100
Morell River is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing fourth on his latest visit here. He arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts this year but drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time. Trainer has a solid record at Downpatrick though the jockey's strike rate at the track is modest. He carries a KTB Fit of 51.
Eastern WindKTB Fit 49/100
Eastern Wind is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and long race record but arrives on the back of two poor efforts and steps up markedly in trip today. The seven-year-old has never been to Downpatrick before while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track. He is completely unproven on the ground as well. He carries a KTB Fit of 49.
Tribal MoonKTB Fit 49/100
Tribal Moon is a smart performer who has not shown that level of ability for some time and finished only seventh when tried here on his sole visit. He is unproven on the ground, has never won over this trip and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track. He carries a KTB Fit of 49.
Caher Roes DenKTB Fit 46/100
Caher Roes Den is a useful performer who has been consistent in defeat this season with three placed efforts from his last four completed starts. Drops back in trip today having been well held over three miles last time and the shorter distance has to be taken on trust. Mullins has a strong 28% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample yet Hayes is operating at only 6% here. He carries a KTB Fit of 46.
Boston BeachKTB Fit 46/100
Boston Beach is a useful performer who has shown enough in four starts to suggest he can be competitive at this level. Drops back from 3m1f to an untried 2m5f today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has an 18% strike rate from 922 runs at Downpatrick while jockey is operating at 13% from 47 rides here. He carries a KTB Fit of 46.
AdalizKTB Fit 46/100
Adaliz is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins. She steps up in trip today as a fresh question while making her first visit to Downpatrick and sporting headgear for the first time. The yard has a 16% strike rate here from 163 runs while the jockey is operating at 10% from 152 rides. She carries a KTB Fit of 46.
FabhcunKTB Fit 45/100
Fabhcun is a useful performer who has not shown his best this season with a string of modest efforts including two pulled-up finishes. He has course connections through his trainer who strikes at 18% here from a huge sample and the first-time headgear is now applied in hope of a revival. Trip suitability remains a question after one unsuccessful attempt at this distance. He carries a KTB Fit of 45.
Tolka RowKTB Fit 42/100
Tolka Row is a useful performer who has shown some promise on his better days but has been inconsistent of late with a pulled-up effort last time. He has course experience here having finished seventh on his only visit to Downpatrick while the drop back in trip from 3m looks a sensible move having already been placed over this distance. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 65 runs at the track is a negative. He carries a KTB Fit of 42.
KTB verdict
Cozone is the KTB Selection. He brings a strong course record of two wins from three starts at Downpatrick, allied to consistent recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last three outings. The first-time headgear may help him settle better up in trip, and the yard's above-average record at the track adds further appeal. Nakassama and Joya Del Mar head the dangers, both boasting course wins and solid recent form, while Andys Flame and Typical Thomas cannot be entirely dismissed on their local knowledge despite current limitations.
KTB Selection Cozone
This is the narrative read of the 4:47 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Cozone has won two of his three starts at Downpatrick.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
First-time headgear is worn by Cozone, Nakassama, Joya Del Mar, Andys Flame, Ringdufferin, Mephisto, Oh Janey, Tribal Moon, Adaliz and Fabhcun.
What is Noel Meade's strike rate at Downpatrick?
Noel Meade has a 25% strike rate at Downpatrick from 260 runs.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at the track in this race?
W P Mullins has a 28% strike rate at Downpatrick from 257 runs.
How many principals step up in trip for this race?
Cozone, Andys Flame, Typical Thomas and Oh Janey all step up in trip.
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