4:51 Ballinrobe
The 4:51 at Ballinrobe is an Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle over 2m2f60y on good ground with a field of 18. It features a mix of lightly raced maidens, newcomers and horses with patchy recent form, many of whom bring limited evidence to the race. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched, underlining the modest overall standard and the open nature of the contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, with only Lexenna typically settling in midfield. The key question will be whether the race develops enough pace for those coming from off the pace to make ground in the straight, or whether those able to secure a more prominent position can dominate in a tactical sprint for home.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Minella Post KTB Selection58/100Smart performer with the ratings to compete at this level but has been disappointing of late and the recent form figures of 4/0-FP tell their own story.
- 2Noharmintrying50/100Noharmintrying makes his debut for a trainer who has a solid 19% strike rate from 47 runs at Ballinrobe.
- 3Myhero La Colmine50/100Myhero La Colmine is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 4Coolishael49/100Coolishael has shown fair placed form in two completed starts this year, finishing third on both occasions.
- 5Tommy Go Maith48/100Tommy Go Maith has shown very little so far with a string of pulled-up efforts in five starts.
- 6Lastofthenatives46/100Lastofthenatives has shown very little so far with a recent form line of 5P-P00 and only three career runs.
- 7Colliers Quay44/100Colliers Quay has shown very little so far with two pulled-up efforts either side of a modest third and fourth.
- 8Vargas44/100Vargas has a patchy recent record of P/P-5 and only one run in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up.
- 9Beyond Forgiveness44/100Beyond Forgiveness has very little to recommend him on his two starts so far, pulling up on debut before a modest sixth last time.
- 10Elusive Truce44/100Elusive Truce is a newcomer whose assessment rests almost entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 11Don't Tell Paddy43/100Don't Tell Paddy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 12Lexenna43/100Lexenna has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing no better than sixth.
- 13Green Grass41/100Green Grass has been well beaten on both starts to date and remains very lightly raced with only two career runs.
- 14Sankofa39/100Sankofa has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing ninth on debut and then only third in a modest point.
- 15Nothintodowithme39/100Lightly raced with only two runs this year and a recent PU and eighth that offer little encouragement.
- 16Roll It Roisin39/100Lightly raced mare with just three starts and a recent pulled-up effort over further at this track.
- 17Discrete38/100Discrete has shown very little so far with a recent form string of P-6077 and only three career runs in the last year.
- 18Leva Deva38/100Leva Deva has shown very little in three runs so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when tenth on her only visit here.
The contenders
Minella Post KTB Fit 58/100
Minella Post is a smart performer with the ratings to be competitive at this level. He has been disappointing of late and the recent form figures of 4/0-FP tell their own story. The yard has an 18% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 68 runs yet this is the horse's first visit to the track and he has shown little on his only start on good ground. Stepping up in trip is an unknown at this stage. Connections will be hoping the 7-year-old can bounce back to his best in a race that could suit his held-up run style if the pace lifts.
Noharmintrying KTB Fit 50/100
Noharmintrying makes his debut for Aidan Anthony Howard, a trainer who has a solid 19% strike rate from 47 runs at Ballinrobe. The 5-year-old brings limited racecourse evidence so the pedigree and sales background will carry most weight here. Connections will be hoping the step up to 2m2f60y on good ground suits. The yard's 2/19 record with this jockey adds a layer of stability, though the small-sample data leaves plenty to be answered on the track. He represents one of the more interesting debutants in a wide-open maiden.
Myhero La Colmine KTB Fit 50/100
Myhero La Colmine is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background provide the only clues here and the low data confidence means any assessment has to remain tentative. Paul John Gilligan has a modest 3% strike rate from 117 runs at Ballinrobe, though the booking of Dylan O'Connor is a positive with his 33% strike rate from a tiny sample of three rides at the track. By Choeur Du Nord, the 4-year-old is entitled to need the run but could improve for the experience of this 2m2f60y trip on good ground.
Coolishael KTB Fit 49/100
Coolishael has shown fair placed form in two completed starts this year, finishing third on both occasions. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only two career runs behind him. Trainer Ross O'Sullivan has a 10% strike rate from 63 runs at Ballinrobe while the small sample means the going remains unknown. Usually held up, though with limited evidence, he will need the steadily-run race to develop in his favour. The 5-year-old remains unexposed and could have more to offer if the trip proves within range.
Tommy Go Maith KTB Fit 48/100
Tommy Go Maith has shown very little so far with a string of pulled-up efforts in five starts. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse whose small sample gives us almost nothing reliable to go on. Both trainer and jockey have only one run at Ballinrobe between them so their local record is too limited to read anything into. Usually held up, the 5-year-old has 2 runs on good without placing and will need to show significant improvement to feature here.
The rest of the field
LastofthenativesKTB Fit 46/100
Lastofthenatives has shown very little so far with a recent form line of 5P-P00 and only three career runs. The yard records a modest 4% strike rate from 47 runs at Ballinrobe. First-time headgear is now applied but the small sample means the trip question and overall ability remain unclear.
Colliers QuayKTB Fit 44/100
Colliers Quay has shown very little so far with two pulled-up efforts either side of a modest third and fourth. The recent fifth adds nothing positive and the overall small sample makes any firm conclusions risky. Trainer Eoin Christopher McCarthy has a 2% strike rate from 52 runs at Ballinrobe while jockey Thomas O'Connor has no recorded figures at the track.
VargasKTB Fit 44/100
Vargas has a patchy recent record of P/P-5 and only one run in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up. The yard holds a 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe from a big sample. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question while the going remains unknown from a single run.
Beyond ForgivenessKTB Fit 44/100
Beyond Forgiveness has very little to recommend him on his two starts so far, pulling up on debut before a modest sixth last time. The yard's poor 2% strike rate from 47 runs at Ballinrobe offers no encouragement. With only one run at today's trip and a going sample too small to judge, this remains a low-confidence profile.
Elusive TruceKTB Fit 44/100
Elusive Truce is a newcomer whose assessment rests almost entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Ballinrobe. Connections send him out for a debut on good ground over 2m2f60y.
Don't Tell PaddyKTB Fit 43/100
Don't Tell Paddy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard's record at Ballinrobe is modest at 2% from 52 runs. Connections will be hoping the colt shows enough on debut to build from.
LexennaKTB Fit 43/100
Lexenna has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing no better than sixth. She was well held on her only previous run here and now steps up in trip having achieved nothing at two miles. The trainer's poor record at Ballinrobe adds to the negatives on a day when the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky.
Green GrassKTB Fit 41/100
Green Grass has been well beaten on both starts to date and remains very lightly raced with only two career runs. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of him while the small sample makes it impossible to judge his effectiveness on good ground or at this track. Trainer Paul Flynn has an 8% strike rate from 131 runs at Ballinrobe while jockey Kevin Healy has very limited course experience.
SankofaKTB Fit 39/100
Sankofa has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing ninth on debut and then only third in a modest point. The yard's poor 2% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 47 runs offers no encouragement. With just one run at today's trip and a going sample too small to judge, this remains a very low-confidence profile.
NothintodowithmeKTB Fit 39/100
Lightly raced with only two runs this year and a recent PU and eighth that offer little encouragement. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 25 runs at Ballinrobe while the horse pulled up on its only previous visit here. Stepping up in trip is an unknown and the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky.
Roll It RoisinKTB Fit 39/100
Lightly raced mare with just three starts and a recent pulled-up effort over further at this track. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it hard to gauge her true level. Trainer's modest 2% strike-rate at Ballinrobe from 47 runs adds to the caution needed here.
DiscreteKTB Fit 38/100
Discrete has shown very little so far with a recent form string of P-6077 and only three career runs in the last year. The horse was well held when seventh on its sole visit to Ballinrobe and now drops back in trip to a distance it has never tried. Trainer Mrs Grainne M O'Connor has a 0% strike rate from 12 runs at this track while the small-sample data means any firm conclusions should be treated with caution.
Leva DevaKTB Fit 38/100
Leva Deva has shown very little in three runs so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when tenth on her only visit here. The yard has a modest record at Ballinrobe with no winners from 19 runners. Stepping up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with limited overall form.
KTB verdict
Minella Post is the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer with the ratings to compete at this level despite his recent disappointments, and the yard's strong 18% strike rate at Ballinrobe provides encouragement even on his first visit to the track. The steadily-run race may suit his usual held-up style if the pace lifts at the right time. His main dangers are the interesting debutant Noharmintrying, who joins a yard in form at the track, and Coolishael, who has shown fair placed form and remains relatively unexposed. The race looks tactical and several others with modest profiles could improve their positions if the leaders go slowly enough.
KTB Selection Minella Post
This is the narrative read of the 4:51 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the pace expected to be steady?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence and most runners are held-up types who produce their effort late.
How many runs has Minella Post had on good ground?
One run on good, with no win or place.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ballinrobe in this field?
Aidan Anthony Howard has a 19% strike rate from 47 runs at Ballinrobe, followed by Thomas Gibney at 18% from 68 runs.
What is the recent form of the selection Minella Post?
Recent form figures of 4/0-FP.
Which horse is having its first run in headgear?
Lastofthenatives is wearing first-time headgear.
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