4:52 Nottingham
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum trip at Nottingham features a small but competitive field of six modest performers on good ground. The KTB Fit scores separate the runners clearly, with Toptime heading the numbers on 62, followed by Albegone on 53, Thornaby Pearl on 50 and Wrestling Revenue on 49. Recent form is mixed across the board, but course experience is widespread and the pace shape points to an uncontested lead that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, as Toptime is a confirmed front-runner likely to bowl along without serious pressure from the others. Thornaby Pearl can race prominently but the remaining quartet are all held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters and prove hard to peg back in the closing stages on this straight track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Toptime KTB Selection62/100Toptime is a modest performer who arrives in reasonable form after a solid third on his return.
- 2Albegone53/100Modest performer with an RPR of 71 who has been largely out of form this year but showed a bit more when fifth at Doncaster last time.
- 3Thornaby Pearl50/100Modest performer who ran well when winning a similar race last time and has placed on three of his four starts at Nottingham.
- 4Wrestling Revenue49/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 5High Opinion41/100Modest performer who has won twice at Nottingham and also at this trip.
- 6Charging Bull41/100Modest performer who has shown some spark at this trip without winning.
The contenders
Toptime KTB Fit 62/100
Toptime is a modest performer who arrives in reasonable form after a solid third on his return. He has won over this trip and at this track from six visits, though his overall strike-rate is modest and he has been beaten in most of his recent starts. The 8-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence from draw 6, which aligns perfectly with the race's lone-leader shape. Roy Bowring has a 9% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.03 from 468 runs, while Jack Gilligan brings a 20% strike rate at the track from a small sample of 10 rides. He holds a 2-13 record on good ground and his figures of RPR 72 and TS 66 mark him as the top-rated in the contest.
Albegone KTB Fit 53/100
Albegone is a modest performer with an RPR of 71 who has been largely out of form this year but showed a bit more when fifth at Doncaster last time. He has won over this trip and at this track from four runs here though his record on good ground is modest with just one win from twenty starts. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence from draw 4, meaning he will need the leader to come back to him. Tim Easterby has a 9% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.8 from 605 runs, and Cam Hardie is 8% from 131 rides with an A/E of 0.88. The pair hold a combined trainer-jockey record of 20-305 with an A/E of 0.92.
Thornaby Pearl KTB Fit 50/100
Thornaby Pearl is a modest performer who ran well when winning a similar race last time and has placed on three of his four starts at Nottingham. He has won at this trip but his record on good ground is ordinary with just one success from 13 starts. The 8-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead, with medium confidence from draw 3, which could see him track the clear leader. Adrian Nicholls has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.6 from 33 runs, while 7lb claimer Oliver Carmichael is yet to strike in one ride here. His recent form of 8-5341 gives him solid recent momentum.
Wrestling Revenue KTB Fit 49/100
Wrestling Revenue is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He showed a bit more when fifth last time and has placed form over course and distance, but the yard are struggling at this track. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence from the inside draw, and he is dropping in class. Ben Haslam has a 0% strike rate at Nottingham from 17 runs with an A/E of 0, though Andrew Mullen counters with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.21 from 237 rides. The pair hold a trainer-jockey record of 60-505 with an A/E of 1.04 and positive LSP of +£43.16.
The rest of the field
High OpinionKTB Fit 41/100
High Opinion is a modest performer who has won twice at Nottingham and also at this trip. Recent form is patchy but he has run to a similar level on his last two starts and the draw looks favourable from stall 2. He is dropping in class, is held up with medium confidence, and holds a 2-13 record on good ground.
Charging BullKTB Fit 41/100
Charging Bull is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this trip without winning. Placed on his only visit to Nottingham and the yard has a solid recent record here. Unproven on good ground adds a question mark though his recent form suggests he can be competitive in this grade. He is held up with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
Toptime stands out as the KTB Selection. He combines the highest Fit score with a front-running style that is ideally suited to the uncontested lead shape, course-winning form, and the best recent effort in the field. His figures top the ratings and the jockey's record at the venue adds further appeal. The main dangers are likely to come from Thornaby Pearl, who arrives in winning form and has a strong course profile, and Albegone, who has shown signs of a revival and possesses course-winning experience of his own. Wrestling Revenue cannot be entirely ruled out if the drop in class sparks a return to his placed C&D form.
KTB Selection Toptime
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited to the lone-leader pace shape?
Toptime, as a high-confidence front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course wins does Toptime have at Nottingham?
One win from six visits.
What is Thornaby Pearl's record at Nottingham?
Placed on three of four starts with form figures of 3rd, 5th and 5th, but no win.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Wrestling Revenue and High Opinion.
Which horse is unproven on good ground?
Charging Bull, who has had no runs on good.
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