4:52 York
This Class 4 handicap over 7f at York on good to firm ground brings together a field of fifteen three-year-olds in a race that lacks an obvious leader. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive affair at the top of the market, with Flight Control heading the ratings on 69, closely followed by Invincible Boy on 66, Mr Noble on 62, Return Of The Gods on 61 and Bright Summer on 60. With no confirmed front-runner, the pace is expected to be tactical and steadily run, placing emphasis on being well positioned early and having the right balance of ability and track knowledge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the principals tend to race in mid-division or are held up, so the key question is which of them can take advantage of a potential crawl up front and produce their effort at the right time. The low draws look advantageous on this track in a race where positioning will be crucial, while those drawn wide will need to expend extra energy to get into a workable spot.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Flight Control KTB Selection69/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from five runs.
- 2Invincible Boy66/100Fair performer who has shown ability here, finishing second of 22 over 6f on his most recent visit to the track.
- 3Mr Noble62/100Mr Noble is a fair 3-year-old with placed form at this track and a recent win over 6f.
- 4Return Of The Gods61/100Fair performer who has won at this trip on good to firm.
- 5Bright Summer60/100Bright Summer is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over today's 7f trip.
- 6Toastmaster56/100Toastmaster is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts.
- 7Raging Raj56/100Raging Raj is a fair 3-year-old who arrives in decent nick after a recent win and has already shown he can handle today's trip with two wins from four starts.
- 8Thankfully53/100Thankfully is a fair 3 year old who has shown mixed form since winning on debut, including a solid fifth at this track on his second start.
- 9Bleep Test48/100Modest performer who has shown some ability here, finishing second of 22 over 6f last summer before a disappointing effort on return.
- 10Zarvali46/100Fair performer who has run respectably without winning at this track on both previous visits.
- 11Milford Grange45/100Modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing in the frame on four of six starts but yet to win.
- 12Gunalt Wavelength43/100Modest performer who has shown better form this year with two wins and a second from his last four starts.
- 13Dacres Cross40/100Modest performer who has shown some spark at this track with a third and a fourth from three runs.
- 14Forest Phoenix39/100Modest performer who has already shown he struggles at York, finishing eighth and twelfth from two runs here.
- 15Keep An Eye On It33/100Modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in five runs.
The contenders
Flight Control KTB Fit 69/100
Flight Control is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from five runs. He has already handled this trip and ground well enough to place twice, while the low draw in stall 2 looks no disadvantage at York. The Kevin and Lauren Frost yard's small sample at the track makes that side hard to weigh up but Rossa Ryan's solid 13% strike rate at York from 171 rides is a plus. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to take advantage of the steadily-run pace. With a KTB Fit Score of 69 he tops the ratings in a race where his proven balance at this trip and surface stands out.
Invincible Boy KTB Fit 66/100
Invincible Boy is a fair performer who has shown ability here, finishing second of 22 over 6f on his most recent visit to the track. He steps up in trip today for the first time and that asks a fresh question. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard have a solid 9% strike rate at York from 47 runs while the 5 lb claimer Ethan Tindall is also operating above his strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.46 from 12 rides. Drawn in stall 1 he is ideally placed if the race is tactical and steadily run. With a KTB Fit Score of 66 he is one of the main players despite being unproven on good to firm.
Mr Noble KTB Fit 62/100
Mr Noble is a fair 3-year-old with placed form at this track and a recent win over 6f. He steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him. The K R Burke yard holds a 9% strike rate at York from a large sample of 650 runs while Clifford Lee operates at 11% from 216 rides. His recent form of 1-23 shows promise and with a KTB Fit Score of 62 he enters the reckoning. Drawn in stall 6 he should be able to secure a decent early position in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair, though his lack of experience on good to firm is a point to note.
Return Of The Gods KTB Fit 61/100
Return Of The Gods is a fair performer who has won at this trip on good to firm. Recent form includes a clear success at York last time and the Edward Bethell yard's record here is modest at 7% from 85 runs. James Doyle improves matters with a solid 15% strike rate from 313 rides at the track. His form figures of 31-821 underline his progressive profile and with a KTB Fit Score of 61 he is firmly in the mix. Drawn in stall 9 he may need to work a little to get a good early spot in a tactical race, but his proven ability on the surface and at the trip is a strong asset.
Bright Summer KTB Fit 60/100
Bright Summer is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over today's 7f trip. He showed useful form when landing a similar race at this track on his second start but has been below that level in two runs since. The Andrew Balding yard and P J McDonald both have solid records at York, the trainer at 14% from 476 runs and the jockey at 10% from 471 rides. Dropping in class is a positive and with a KTB Fit Score of 60 he cannot be discounted. Likely to settle in mid-division, he will hope the steadily-run pace plays to his strengths, though he remains unproven on good to firm.
The rest of the field
ToastmasterKTB Fit 56/100
Toastmaster is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already shown his ability at York by finishing third here on his only visit and has won on good to firm ground as well as at today's trip, but the yard's modest strike rate at the track and the jockey's below-par record here are both negatives to weigh up.
Raging RajKTB Fit 56/100
Raging Raj is a fair 3-year-old who arrives in decent nick after a recent win and has already shown he can handle today's trip with two wins from four starts. He acts on good to firm, recording one win and a placing from four runs on the surface, while the yard holds an 8% strike rate at York from 37 runs and Tudhope is 10% from 857 rides here, though this is the colt's first run at the track.
ThankfullyKTB Fit 53/100
Thankfully is a fair 3 year old who has shown mixed form since winning on debut, including a solid fifth at this track on his second start. He drops back to 7f today after a couple of lesser efforts over longer distances, though he has already tried this trip twice without success. The Burke yard holds a 9% strike rate at York from 650 runs while Mulrennan is operating at 6% from 619 rides here.
Bleep TestKTB Fit 48/100
Bleep Test is a modest performer who has shown some ability here, finishing second of 22 over 6f last summer before a disappointing effort on return. He steps up to 7f for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, both fresh questions, and trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
ZarvaliKTB Fit 46/100
Zarvali is a fair performer who has run respectably without winning at this track on both previous visits. Dropping back to 7f looks a sensible move as he has already won at the distance and his recent form at a mile has been patchy. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here and the wide draw is another negative.
Milford GrangeKTB Fit 45/100
Milford Grange is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing in the frame on four of six starts but yet to win. He drops back to 7f having been placed over the trip earlier in the year and first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer's modest record at York is offset by the jockey's solid strike rate here, though the horse was only sixth on its sole visit to the track.
Gunalt WavelengthKTB Fit 43/100
Gunalt Wavelength is a modest performer who has shown better form this year with two wins and a second from his last four starts. He has won at today's trip though his record on good to firm is only a placed effort from two starts. The Easterby yard and Joanna Mason both have modest strike rates at York.
Dacres CrossKTB Fit 40/100
Dacres Cross is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track with a third and a fourth from three runs. He has failed to place in five starts on good to firm so far and looks vulnerable again from a middle draw. Trainer and jockey both operate at a steady 8% strike rate here.
Forest PhoenixKTB Fit 39/100
Forest Phoenix is a modest performer who has already shown he struggles at York, finishing eighth and twelfth from two runs here. Dropping back from a mile to 7f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 15 is no help on this track. Trainer Tim Easterby has a 6% strike rate from 2085 runs at York and Amie Waugh is 4% from 26 rides here.
Keep An Eye On ItKTB Fit 33/100
Keep An Eye On It is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in five runs. He drops back to 7f today having been placed at the trip on his only previous attempt, though the shorter distance now asks a fresh question after his latest run over a mile. Trainer is 0-20 at York while jockey Cam Hardie has a modest 2% strike rate from 285 rides here.
KTB verdict
Flight Control is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from five runs and has already handled this trip and ground well enough to place twice. The low draw in stall 2 is no disadvantage at York and Rossa Ryan's solid record at the track adds to the appeal in a steadily-run affair where being handy should pay. His main dangers are Return Of The Gods, who comes off a clear success at this track and benefits from James Doyle, and Invincible Boy, who showed good ability when second here over 6f and is well drawn. Mr Noble and Bright Summer also have strong claims if the step up in trip suits.
KTB Selection Flight Control
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Flight Control has the highest KTB Fit Score on 69.
How many of the principals are proven winners over 7f?
Two of the principals, Return Of The Gods and Bright Summer, are proven winners over 7f.
What does the pace shape suggest about how the race will be run?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at York among those represented in the principals?
Kevin & Lauren Frost have a 33% strike rate at York from a small sample, while Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate from 476 runs.
How many runners in the full field are wearing headgear for the first time?
Two runners, Bleep Test and Milford Grange, are wearing first-time headgear.
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