4:54 Ripon
This Class 6 handicap over the straight mile at Ripon on good ground brings together eight three-year-olds, most of them modest performers with plenty still to prove. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Dacres Cross heading the numbers on 58 despite a lack of recent spark, while Vega's Virtue, Amber Hamur and Sailor's Return sit close behind on 54, 53 and 52 respectively. Trainer strike rates at the track vary markedly, from Edward Bethell's healthy 20% to more modest figures for several others, and the race looks open on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including the top four in the KTB rankings, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, so the early fractions could be modest. Scheffler is the one who usually races prominently and may end up dictating a sensible gallop from his draw in five. The key question is whether any of the closers can summon the necessary burst in what may become a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dacres Cross KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year and now steps up in trip for the first time.
- 2Vega's Virtue54/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from four runs and twice at today's trip from three attempts.
- 3Amber Hamur53/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race last time out.
- 4Sailor's Return52/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year, with his best effort a fourth on debut.
- 5Tago Mago48/100Modest performer who has shown just one placed effort in three starts.
- 6Scheffler42/100Modest performer who has shown little in five starts and was well held in a similar race last time.
- 7Hey Havana40/100Limited performer who has shown some consistency this year with form figures of 3-2525 but is yet to win in nine starts.
- 8Itszaboy40/100Limited performer who has shown little since his debut.
The contenders
Dacres Cross KTB Fit 58/100
Dacres Cross is a modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year. He now steps up in trip for the first time having previously failed to make much of an impression over shorter distances. He has won on good ground but his recent form is ordinary and this is his first run at Ripon. Kevin Ryan has an 11% strike rate at the track from a large sample and pairs with Shane Gray, whose own figures at Ripon read 10%. Usually held up, he will be looking to produce his effort late in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair.
Vega's Virtue KTB Fit 54/100
Vega's Virtue is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from four runs and twice at today's trip from three attempts. He goes well on good ground with two wins and three places from five starts. After a mixed bag of recent form that includes two wins and a third from his last four outings, first-time headgear is now tried. Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate at Ripon while Duran Fentiman is 7% at the venue. Like several others he is usually held up and will be produced late.
Amber Hamur KTB Fit 53/100
Amber Hamur is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race last time out. He drops back to a trip he has won at before and acts well on good ground, with one win from one start. Edward Bethell has a solid 20% strike rate at Ripon although Connor Beasley is currently 0-8 at the track. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what should be a tactical contest. The combination of recent progress and suitable conditions makes him one of the main players.
Sailor's Return KTB Fit 52/100
Sailor's Return is a modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year, with his best effort a fourth on debut. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having failed to make an impact at the trip on his only previous attempt. David O'Meara has a solid 15% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample while Daniel Tudhope boasts a 21% record at the venue. Usually held up, he will need to find more than he has shown of late if he is to figure in a steadily-run race.
The rest of the field
Tago MagoKTB Fit 48/100
Tago Mago is a modest performer who has shown just one placed effort in three starts. He steps up to 1m for the first time today, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is also applied. Sam England has a solid 12% strike rate at Ripon from 41 runs.
SchefflerKTB Fit 42/100
Scheffler is a modest performer who has shown little in five starts and was well held in a similar race last time. First-time headgear is now fitted but the yard's modest record at Ripon offers no encouragement. The trip looks about right on balance yet overall form leaves him with plenty to find.
Hey HavanaKTB Fit 40/100
Hey Havana is a limited performer who has shown some consistency this year with form figures of 3-2525 but is yet to win in nine starts. Placed twice from six runs on good ground and has been competitive at this trip without success. Geoffrey Harker's modest 5% strike rate at Ripon from 106 runs adds a note of caution.
ItszaboyKTB Fit 40/100
Itszaboy is a limited performer who has shown little since his debut. Dropping back to 1m looks a reasonable move on paper but he has already been tried three times at the trip without success. Nigel Tinkler has a modest 7% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample.
KTB verdict
Dacres Cross is the KTB Selection. Although he has shown little spark in five runs this year, he is dropping in class, steps up to a trip that could suit, and represents a yard with a respectable record at Ripon. His ability to act on good ground is another plus in a race where most of his rivals are equally modest. The main dangers are likely to be Amber Hamur, who arrives on the back of a recent win and has the trainer with the best strike rate at the track, and Vega's Virtue, who knows the venue well and is now fitted with first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Dacres Cross
This is the narrative read of the 4:54 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won twice at Ripon and twice at this trip?
Vega's Virtue has won twice at this track from four runs and twice at today's trip from three attempts.
Who is the only horse in the field with a recent winning form figure?
Amber Hamur showed improved form when winning a similar race last time out.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ripon among those represented?
Edward Bethell has a 20% strike rate at Ripon.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
All four principals – Dacres Cross, Vega's Virtue, Amber Hamur and Sailor's Return – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse is the only prominent runner in the race?
Scheffler is the only one who usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies