4:57 Redcar
This Class 6 handicap over 1m5f218y at Redcar on good to firm ground features a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. The race lacks any obvious front-runner, which sets up a steadily-run, tactical contest. Billy Bathgate heads the KTB Fit rankings on 59 and is the clear selection, with Buxted Reel, Newport, Saratoga Gold and Dubai Venture completing the principals.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace is expected to be steady rather than searching, making it a tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the selection can again show his best side at a track where he has already won twice from three starts, or whether one of the drop-downs in class can capitalise on the lack of early pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Billy Bathgate KTB Selection59/100Billy Bathgate is a limited handicapper who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning a similar race here last month.
- 2Buxted Reel55/100Buxted Reel is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 1-3-2-1 that includes a win at today's trip.
- 3Newport52/100Modest performer with a patchy record and no win in the last three years.
- 4Saratoga Gold46/100Modest performer who has been placed on his last three starts and won at this trip in the past.
- 5Dubai Venture46/100Limited performer who has shown consistency this year with two wins and two seconds from his last six starts.
- 6Nanny Park45/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed her best when winning a similar race at Catterick in June.
- 7Spooky Wooky44/100Modest performer who has shown the odd bit of ability but has failed to build on it.
- 8Galistra35/100Limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date.
- 9Gemical34/100Limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in seven starts.
- 10Time Twister32/100Time Twister is a limited performer on the balance of his six runs to date and has shown no real sign of breaking that level.
The contenders
Billy Bathgate KTB Fit 59/100
Billy Bathgate is a limited handicapper who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning a similar race here last month. He has won twice from three starts at Redcar and boasts a solid record on good to firm, including three wins from six starts. Dropping back from 2m to a trip he has won over before looks a sensible move though his overall strike-rate remains modest. The 10-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Ewan Whillans has a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.32 from 27 runs while David Nolan is 10% from 400 rides at the track; their combined record reads 4/19 with an A/E of 1.99 and +£10.25 LSP.
Buxted Reel KTB Fit 55/100
Buxted Reel is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 1-3-2-1 that includes a win at today's trip. He has been competitive on good to firm ground without winning on it and now drops back from 2m. The yard has no previous runners at Redcar while Darragh Keenan is 0-19 at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the seven-year-old is dropping in class which could help him get competitive.
Newport KTB Fit 52/100
Newport is a modest performer with a patchy record and no win in the last three years. He drops back from 2m today having looked laboured over that longer trip last time, while the switch to first-time headgear is another unknown. Trainer Iain Jardine strikes at 9% here with an A/E of 0.82 from 170 runs and jockey Oisin Orr is 16% from 105 rides at Redcar with an A/E of 1.01. The six-year-old typically settles in midfield and has looked limited on good to firm ground in two previous tries.
Saratoga Gold KTB Fit 46/100
Saratoga Gold is a modest performer who has been placed on his last three starts and won at this trip in the past. He handles good to firm ground and now tries first-time headgear after a string of consistent efforts. Trainer Kevin & Lauren Frost have too small a sample at Redcar to judge while jockey William Pyle has a solid 10% strike rate here from 69 rides. Their combined record stands at 2/23 with an A/E of 0.62 and -£8.50 LSP. Usually held up, the eight-year-old could be suited by the steadily-run race.
Dubai Venture KTB Fit 46/100
Dubai Venture is a limited performer who has shown consistency this year with two wins and two seconds from his last six starts. He stays 1m4f well enough but steps up in trip today for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Tina Jackson and jockey Joanna Mason both have modest records at Redcar, the yard at 6% with an A/E of 0.85 from 120 runs and the rider 9% with an A/E of 0.84 from 149 rides. Their combined record reads 10/72 with an A/E of 1.02 and +£45.38 LSP. The five-year-old is usually held up.
The rest of the field
Nanny ParkKTB Fit 45/100
Nanny Park is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed her best when winning a similar race at Catterick in June. She drops back from 2m today to a trip she has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while this is also her first run at Redcar. The yard has yet to strike at the track from six attempts and she needs to bounce back from a poor latest effort.
Spooky WookyKTB Fit 44/100
Spooky Wooky is a modest performer who has shown the odd bit of ability but has failed to build on it. He was well held on his most recent start and now tries headgear for the first time while stepping back up in trip. The yard's modest record at Redcar adds little confidence.
GalistraKTB Fit 35/100
Galistra is a limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Alan Brown's modest record at the track is offset by the jockey's solid strike rate here.
GemicalKTB Fit 34/100
Gemical is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in seven starts. She has been beaten a long way on her only attempt at this trip and the first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer Rebecca Menzies operates at a 6% strike rate here while the jockey is still seeking a first Redcar winner from 47 rides.
Time TwisterKTB Fit 32/100
Time Twister is a limited performer on the balance of his six runs to date and has shown no real sign of breaking that level. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a modest record at Redcar while the 7 lb claimer is still seeking a first win here from 14 rides.
KTB verdict
Billy Bathgate is the KTB Selection. He showed his best side when winning a similar race here last month, has won twice from three starts at Redcar and boasts a solid record on good to firm. Dropping back from 2m to a trip he has won over before looks a sensible move for a horse who usually produces his effort late in a steadily-run affair. His main dangers are the dropper in class Buxted Reel, who brings a solid recent record, and the first-time headgear Newport, though both have their own questions to answer.
KTB Selection Billy Bathgate
This is the narrative read of the 4:57 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Billy Bathgate the selection despite his modest overall strike-rate?
He showed his best side when winning a similar race here last month, has won twice from three starts at Redcar and boasts a solid record on good to firm including three wins from six starts.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
What is the significance of first-time headgear for Newport, Saratoga Gold, Spooky Wooky and Gemical?
It is an unknown for all four modest performers who are trying it for the first time.
Which horses are dropping in class?
Buxted Reel, Newport, Nanny Park, Spooky Wooky and Time Twister.
Which principals have never won on good to firm?
Buxted Reel and Newport.
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