4:58 Leopardstown
This seven-runner Frank Conroy Irish EBF Maiden for two-year-olds over a mile at Leopardstown on good ground features a mix of debutants and lightly raced types. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Shakespeare heading the list on 49 followed by Maleo Matteo and Green Dreamer both on 47 and Activity on 46. Official figures are not yet established for most of this field, and with several runners lacking any racecourse experience the race poses plenty of unknowns.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a steadily run affair with no obvious front-runner in the field. Shakespeare from draw one is likely to track the early pace, while Green Dreamer and Highest Order should also be handy. The key question is whether the step up to a mile will suit those who showed promise on debut or if one of the well-bred newcomers can make a winning start.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Shakespeare KTB Selection49/100Shakespeare showed promise when finishing third on debut over 7f.
- 2Maleo Matteo47/100Maleo Matteo is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 17% strike rate from 1411 runs at Leopardstown.
- 3Green Dreamer47/100Green Dreamer showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip at the course.
- 4Activity46/100Mrs John Harrington has a solid 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample of runners.
- 5The Long Haul44/100The Long Haul is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 6Darkness Falls44/100Darkness Falls is a first-time runner from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard which has a solid 20% strike-rate at Leopardstown from nearly 2,000 runs.
- 7Highest Order44/100Highest Order is a debutant so the form picture is blank and the assessment rests on pedigree and connections.
The contenders
Shakespeare KTB Fit 49/100
Shakespeare showed promise when finishing third on debut over 7f. He now steps up to a mile for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike rate from 1948 runs at Leopardstown while Ryan Moore is on board. The trainer and jockey combination carries obvious strength here with respective strike rates of 20% and 32% at the track. As yet unproven on good ground and without previous course form, he remains the KTB selection on the back of that debut effort. From stall one he should get a good view of proceedings.
Maleo Matteo KTB Fit 47/100
Maleo Matteo is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 17% strike rate from 1411 runs at Leopardstown. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background plus the trainer's proven record here. Data confidence is low given the complete absence of on-track evidence. By Dark Angel, he represents a trainer-jockey partnership that has shown 12% success together. Chris Hayes takes the ride on a horse with no course win to its name and whose ability on good ground is untested in public.
Green Dreamer KTB Fit 47/100
Green Dreamer showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip at the course. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate from over a thousand runs at Leopardstown. With only one run on the clock the form remains hard to weigh up. Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle team up with respective track strike rates of 13%. The colt has one run on good ground without placing and arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 47. Drawn in stall five, he should be capable of tracking the pace.
Activity KTB Fit 46/100
Mrs John Harrington has a solid 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample of runners. This well-bred newcomer from her yard makes its debut here on good ground with Shane Foley in the saddle. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence available the colt remains an unknown quantity. By Gleneagles, he represents a trainer-jockey combination that has struck at 12% together. There is no course win on record and his ability remains to be seen in the face of stronger yard representation elsewhere.
The rest of the field
The Long HaulKTB Fit 44/100
The Long Haul is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard's record at Leopardstown shows a 5% strike rate from 436 runs. James Ryan takes the ride on a horse with no racecourse experience.
Darkness FallsKTB Fit 44/100
Darkness Falls is a first-time runner from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard which has a solid 20% strike-rate at Leopardstown from nearly 2,000 runs. The jockey Wayne Lordan has limited experience at the track. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
Highest OrderKTB Fit 44/100
Highest Order is a debutant so the form picture is blank and the assessment rests on pedigree and connections. The Lyons yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample, and Colin Keane is a positive booking. With low data confidence and nothing known about trip or ground, this remains an unknown quantity.
KTB verdict
Shakespeare is the KTB Selection. He showed promise when finishing third on debut over 7f and now steps up to a mile with the powerful combination of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore in his corner. The yard's 20% strike rate at Leopardstown adds further substance to his claims. His main dangers are the pair of promising debutants Maleo Matteo from the Dermot Weld yard and Highest Order with the Colin Keane booking for Ger Lyons, while Green Dreamer brings course-and-distance experience from a fifth-place finish on debut.
KTB Selection Shakespeare
This is the narrative read of the 4:58 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has previous racecourse experience at Leopardstown?
Green Dreamer showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip at the course.
What is Aidan O'Brien's strike rate at Leopardstown?
Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1948 runs.
How many horses in the field are complete debutants?
Four horses are debutants: Maleo Matteo, Activity, The Long Haul, Darkness Falls and Highest Order.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Leopardstown among those riding in this race?
Ryan Moore has a 32% strike rate at Leopardstown from 241 rides.
What trip is Shakespeare stepping up to for the first time?
Shakespeare now steps up to a mile for the first time.
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