5:00 Thirsk
This Class 4 handicap division at Thirsk over 7f on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine where the KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but not especially deep race. Frankies Dream heads the KTB rankings on 64 and is the selection, with Misunderstood, Mythical Phoenix and Native Honey completing the principals on 60, 59 and 59 respectively. The overall numbers suggest a race that could be dictated from the front in a contest where course experience and trip suitability will matter.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner with little to apply pressure and an uncontested lead that can prove difficult for closers to reel in. Native Instinct is the only horse with a front-running run-style while the other eight are all held up types who produce their effort late. That sets up a key question of whether the leader can get away and whether the closers, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, can muster enough to bridge the gap on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Frankies Dream KTB Selection64/100
Frankies Dream is a fair handicapper who has been consistent enough to place three times from his last six starts. He has shown his best form at this track with a placing from two runs and drops back to a trip he has won at twice before. The trainer holds a solid record here while the jockey has an above-average strike-rate, though the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground. From draw 3 and with a held-up run-style he will be produced late, and his recent form figures of 323788 underline the level of consistency he brings. The combination of trainer and jockey statistics at Thirsk adds to the picture for a horse who can capitalise if the uncontested lead sets things up for a late challenge.
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2Misunderstood60/100
Misunderstood is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and arrives in reasonable form after a solid second last time. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip before and has shown he handles good to soft ground with a win and a place from four runs. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Thirsk while the jockey is operating at 9%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get first run. His recent form figures of 677452 reflect a horse who stays competitive at this level without quite landing the big one of late.
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3Mythical Phoenix59/100
Mythical Phoenix is a fair performer who has shown some spark here at Thirsk with a second and a fifth from three runs. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having looked limited over 6f on his last two starts, while the yard’s modest 9% strike-rate at the track offers little encouragement. The jockey’s long record here is solid enough but this looks a stiff task on balance. A held-up type who usually produces his effort late, he has placed once from his only run on good to soft. Recent form figures of 888-06 point to a horse who needs to find a bit more to land this.
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4Native Honey59/100
Native Honey is a modest performer who has won three times at this trip from nine attempts and arrives in decent form having won two of her last four starts. She has no experience at Thirsk and has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey has an eye-catching 18% strike rate from her small number of rides. Usually held up, she will be coming from off the pace in a race with an uncontested leader. Her recent form figures of 100155 show the flashes of ability she can produce at this trip.
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5Kosometsuke55/100
Kosometsuke is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip and landed a race over course and distance. He has been in and out of form this year with a best of 1584 from his last four starts. The trainer and jockey both hold a 10% strike rate at Thirsk while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground.
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6Native Instinct52/100
Native Instinct is a fair performer who has shown useful consistency this year, landing two wins and two placings from his last six starts. He has course experience here with a placed effort from two runs, while he has also been competitive on good to soft ground and holds a win at today's 7f trip. The yard and jockey both operate at modest strike rates at Thirsk. His front-running style means he is set to make the running in a race with a lone leader shape.
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7Good Karma51/100
Good Karma is a modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but is stepping back up from 6f today. He has course form in his favour with a win from two runs at Thirsk and goes well on good to soft having scored once and placed twice from three starts. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here though the yard's A/E of 1.16 offers some encouragement. He steps up in class.
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8Andesite49/100
Andesite is a fair performer who has been placed on three of his last five starts but has looked short of pace on his most recent two runs over a mile. He drops back to 7f today, a trip at which he has placed without winning, though his record on good to soft ground is modest from just two attempts. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample while Kevin Stott fares better with a 14% record at the track.
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9Intrusively43/100
Intrusively is a modest performer who has been below form for some time and is now tried in first-time headgear. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip earlier in his career though he showed little on his only two runs on good to soft. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Thirsk. He steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Frankies Dream is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with placed form at the track and a return to a trip he has won twice before, he brings the highest Fit score and benefits from positive trainer and jockey reads at Thirsk. His held-up style should see him delivered late against a lone leader who may get an easy time up front. The main dangers are Misunderstood, who arrives in reasonable form with a proven record on the ground and at the trip, and Mythical Phoenix, who has shown spark at the course, though both face questions over whether they can bridge the gap to the selection. Native Honey cannot be entirely dismissed in her current form but lacks course experience.
KTB Selection Frankies Dream
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:20 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Frankies Dream | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Misunderstood | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Mythical Phoenix | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Native Honey | 17/2 | Midnite |
| Kosometsuke | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Native Instinct | 3/1 | 7Bet |
| Good Karma | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
| Andesite | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Intrusively | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:00 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Thirsk results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Native Instinct is the only front-runner in the field and therefore set to take the lone leader role with little pressure.
How many horses in the field are proven winners over this 7f trip?
Frankies Dream has won at the trip twice before, Misunderstood has won at the trip before, Native Honey has won three times at this trip, Kosometsuke has won twice at this trip, Native Instinct holds a win at today's 7f trip, and Good Karma has won over this trip in the past.
Which runners have course form at Thirsk?
Frankies Dream has a placing from two runs, Mythical Phoenix has a second and a fifth from three runs, Kosometsuke has won from three runs, Native Instinct has a placed effort from two runs, Good Karma has a win from two runs, and Andesite has two fifths from two runs.
Which horses are unproven on good to soft ground?
Frankies Dream has had no runs on good to soft, Kosometsuke has had no runs on good to soft, and Intrusively showed little on his only two runs on good to soft.
Who steps up in class for this race?
Good Karma and Intrusively are both stepping up in class.
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