5:04 Southwell (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Southwell over 1m14y on standard ground brings together a field of ten three-year-olds, most of whom are limited performers with modest recent form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Hear The Drums and Distillation sharing a 52 rating, followed by Soda on 48, Miss Mambo on 46 and Singarda on 44. Overall the numbers point to a race short on depth where small margins and the prevailing pace shape could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, confidence high that it will be on the pace early and liable to collapse late. Singarda and Go Teejay are the types to take the race along or race prominently, while Hear The Drums usually sits handily. That sets up a race that should favour those with a held-up style such as Distillation, Soda, Miss Mambo, Athenian Spirit and Mist of Time, with the key question being whether any prominent runners can withstand the late challenge from the closers.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hear The Drums52/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three starts this year after winning a 2yo maiden on debut.
- 2Distillation KTB Selection52/100Limited performer who showed some improvement when winning a similar race here over 7f last time.
- 3Soda48/100Limited performer who has shown nothing like enough in five runs to suggest she can win a race of this grade.
- 4Miss Mambo46/100Limited performer who has shown little since a fair debut effort last year.
- 5Singarda44/100Limited performer who has failed to place in ten starts and showed little spark when seventh of eight over C&D on his only previous visit here.
- 6Athenian Spirit44/100Athenian Spirit is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings.
- 7Lady Fizz42/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 8Mist of Time39/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in six starts and was well held when finishing 11th on his only previous visit here.
- 9Go Teejay35/100Limited performer who has failed to finish better than eighth in six starts and now steps up in trip for the first time.
- 10Retro Rocket32/100Limited and still unexposed after three runs.
The contenders
Hear The Drums KTB Fit 52/100
Hear The Drums is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts this year after winning a 2yo maiden on debut. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having looked stretched at 7½f last time, while the yard's solid 20% strike-rate at Southwell offers some encouragement. First run here and only one previous start on standard ground both add unknowns. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.95. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he could be vulnerable if the strong pace materialises as expected.
Distillation KTB Fit 52/100
Distillation is a limited performer who showed some improvement when winning a similar race here over 7f last time. He steps up to an unproven 1m today which asks a fresh question, while the yard's modest 7% strike-rate at the track is another negative. Jockey Robert Havlin brings a solid 17% record at Southwell but that may not be enough to overcome the horse's overall limitations. He has a 1-3 record on standard ground with two placings. Usually held up and produces its effort late, he is well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses in the straight.
Soda KTB Fit 48/100
Soda is a limited performer who has shown nothing like enough in five runs to suggest she can win a race of this grade. She steps up markedly in trip today having looked a pure sprinter on her most recent starts and the small-sample trip data offers no encouragement. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Southwell but that is the only positive in an otherwise thin profile. The trainer shows a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.24, while the jockey is on 11%. Usually held up and produces its effort late, she could be suited by the anticipated strong pace.
Miss Mambo KTB Fit 46/100
Miss Mambo is a limited performer who has shown little since a fair debut effort last year. She drops back to 1m today having failed to make an impact at that trip on her three previous attempts, while first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Southwell from 784 runs and the jockey is operating at 16% here from 55 rides. She has three runs on standard ground without a win or place. Usually held up and produces its effort late on limited evidence, she may find the strong pace to her liking if the headgear sparks improvement.
Singarda KTB Fit 44/100
Singarda is a limited performer who has failed to place in ten starts and showed little spark when seventh of eight over C&D on his only previous visit here. He has been beaten a long way on both runs on standard ground and is now 0-6 at this trip. First-time headgear is reached for but the yard's modest record at the track offers little encouragement. The trainer is on a 5% strike rate at Southwell with an A/E of 0.5, while the jockey shows 9%. Tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be in the vanguard in a race with a strong pace anticipated.
The rest of the field
Athenian SpiritKTB Fit 44/100
Athenian Spirit is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings. He steps up in trip having been placed both starts at this distance and has shown he can be competitive on standard ground with five placed efforts from eight runs. The yard has only a small sample at Southwell while the jockey holds a solid 17% strike rate here. Usually held up and produces its effort late.
Lady FizzKTB Fit 42/100
Lady Fizz is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. She was well beaten on her only previous visit to this track and now steps up in trip having failed to make an impact at this distance last time. Both trainer and jockey have very small samples here so their local form is impossible to gauge. Usually held up and produces its effort late on limited evidence. Dropping in class.
Mist of TimeKTB Fit 39/100
Mist of Time is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in six starts and was well held when finishing 11th on his only previous visit here. He drops back to 1m today having failed to make an impact over that trip on his sole attempt so far. Trainer William Knight has a solid 17% strike rate at Southwell while Luke Morris is operating below his usual level on this track. Usually held up and produces its effort late.
Go TeejayKTB Fit 35/100
Go Teejay is a limited performer who has failed to finish better than eighth in six starts and now steps up in trip for the first time. First-time headgear is tried in a bid to spark some improvement from a low draw. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate at Southwell. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Retro RocketKTB Fit 32/100
Retro Rocket is limited and still unexposed after three runs. He has shown very little in two modest efforts on turf and now steps up markedly in trip for the first time. Trainer holds a modest record at Southwell while the jockey is still seeking a first winner here. Typically settles in midfield. Dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Distillation is the KTB Selection. He showed some improvement when winning a similar race here over 7f last time and his hold-up style looks ideal given the strong pace that is likely to be set. The step up to an unproven 1m poses a question and the yard's modest record at Southwell is a negative, yet he remains the most solid option on recent form. The main dangers are likely to come from those also suited by the shape, principally Soda and Miss Mambo if the headgear helps, with Hear The Drums the pick of those who race prominently.
KTB Selection Distillation
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Hear The Drums | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Distillation | 6/4 | Bet365 |
| Soda | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Miss Mambo | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Singarda | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Athenian Spirit | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Lady Fizz | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Mist of Time | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Go Teejay | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Retro Rocket | 22/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 5:04 Southwell (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Southwell (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Singarda tends to make the running or race on the pace, as does Go Teejay. Hear The Drums usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
Why is Distillation the KTB Selection despite the step up in trip?
Distillation showed some improvement when winning a similar race here over 7f last time and his held-up run-style is favoured by the strong pace shape.
Which runners are suited by the likely strong pace?
Distillation, Soda, Miss Mambo, Athenian Spirit and Mist of Time are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Southwell for the yard of Hear The Drums?
Richard & Peter Fahey have a 20% strike rate at Southwell (AW) with an A/E of 1.3 from 15 runs.
How many placed efforts has Athenian Spirit had from eight runs on standard ground?
Athenian Spirit has been placed five times from eight runs on standard ground.
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