5:05 Gowran Park
This 14-runner Tote Apprentice Handicap at Gowran Park over 1m1f110y on good ground features a field of largely limited performers with modest recent form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Deuteronomy at 54, followed closely by Burford Beauty on 51, Yquem on 48, Haughty on 46 and Magna Gee Gee on 45. With the pace shape looking tentative on medium confidence and a number of runners set to be held up, the race lacks a clear pace blueprint and could hinge on how the first-time headgear and trip changes play out for several contenders.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Morning Approach is the one horse noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace, while Magna Gee Gee is usually prominent and races handily. Most of the principals, including the selection Deuteronomy, Burford Beauty and Haughty, are typically held up and produce their effort late, which poses the key question of whether sufficient pace will materialise for those coming from off the pace to make ground in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Deuteronomy KTB Selection54/100Limited performer who has won once in ten runs at Gowran Park but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 2Burford Beauty51/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives with a recent string of modest efforts.
- 3Yquem48/100Limited performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a third from his last four starts.
- 4Haughty46/100Limited performer who has struggled this year with two modest efforts after a break.
- 5Magna Gee Gee45/100Limited performer who has won once on good ground and once at this trip.
- 6Hexagonal43/100Limited horse who has failed to win in 13 starts and showed little spark when last seen.
- 7Morning Approach42/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame on all three previous visits to Gowran.
- 8Shahada Ace41/100Shahada Ace is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 15 starts this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 9Duchess Anne41/100Limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts and was well beaten when sixth on her only previous run here.
- 10Jazz Dreamers39/100Limited performer who has shown a bit of ability at Gowran with two seconds from eight runs here.
- 11Georg Zhukov39/100Limited performer who has been well beaten on his last two starts and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 12Master Garvey30/100Limited performer who has shown occasional spark at this track, finishing third on his most recent visit here.
- 13My Vonnie29/100Limited sort who has shown very little in 18 starts and arrives in poor form.
- 14Lady Luck27/100Limited performer who has been well beaten on all four starts on good ground and finished a remote tenth on her only previous run here.
The contenders
Deuteronomy KTB Fit 54/100
Deuteronomy is a limited performer who has won once from ten runs at Gowran Park but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He drops back in trip having last run over further and is now tried in first-time headgear. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.15 from 36 runs, while the jockey has a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.51 from 32 rides. Deuteronomy has two wins from 15 starts on good ground with four placings and holds an official rating of 54. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the KTB selection in a race where the pace may not be strong.
Burford Beauty KTB Fit 51/100
Burford Beauty is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives with a recent string of modest efforts. First-time headgear is now applied while she steps up in trip having shown only placed form on good ground from limited attempts. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.89 from 317 runs, while the jockey records a solid 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.98 from 36 rides. She has been placed once from four starts on good ground without winning and holds recent form figures of 50-930. Usually held up and producing her effort late on limited evidence, she could be suited by the tentative pace.
Yquem KTB Fit 48/100
Yquem is a limited performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a third from his last four starts. He steps up in trip having already won at this distance and has placed once from five runs on good ground. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.16 from 30 runs, while the jockey has a 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.58 from 62 rides. His recent form reads 358913 and he is drawn widest in stall 13. With the pace shape tentative, his ability to race prominently or settle could be important.
Haughty KTB Fit 46/100
Haughty is a limited performer who has struggled this year with two modest efforts after a break. He drops back in trip having failed to trouble the judge in four previous tries at this distance while his record on good ground reads one win from eight starts with two placings. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.38 from 27 runs and the jockey has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.16 from 10 rides. Recent form is 968-08 and he is usually held up and produces his effort late on limited evidence. The yard's recent form is not inspiring.
Magna Gee Gee KTB Fit 45/100
Magna Gee Gee is a limited performer who has won once on good ground and once at this trip. Dropping back from 1m4f should suit but she showed little when seventh on her only run here and the recent form is patchy. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.73 from 769 runs and the jockey has a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.59 from 26 rides. She has one win from six starts on good with two placings and recent form of 708631. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, she could be well positioned if the pace remains only tentative.
The rest of the field
HexagonalKTB Fit 43/100
Hexagonal is a limited horse who has failed to win in 13 starts and showed little spark when last seen. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before, while first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Gowran from 346 runs and the jockey is yet to score from 11 rides here.
Morning ApproachKTB Fit 42/100
Morning Approach is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on all three previous visits to Gowran. Placed three times from 16 starts on good ground and has form at today's trip, yet recent efforts have been poor and the yard's 11% strike rate here adds little encouragement. The jockey remains winless from six rides at the track and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Shahada AceKTB Fit 41/100
Shahada Ace is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 15 starts this year with a string of poor efforts. He has shown no win or place from four runs at Gowran Park and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate here from 306 runs while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track.
Duchess AnneKTB Fit 41/100
Duchess Anne is a limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts and was well beaten when sixth on her only previous run here. She steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in five previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has a 3% strike rate at Gowran while the jockey has been more effective with a 33% record from nine rides.
Jazz DreamersKTB Fit 39/100
Jazz Dreamers is a limited performer who has shown a bit of ability at Gowran with two seconds from eight runs here. He steps up in trip today having won once at this distance in the past though his recent form is modest and he is now 0-13 on his last thirteen starts. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at the track while the jockey fares better with a 12% record from 26 rides.
Georg ZhukovKTB Fit 39/100
Georg Zhukov is a limited performer who has been well beaten on his last two starts and now tries headgear for the first time. He drops back from 2m2f to a trip he has failed to handle in two previous attempts, while the yard's 2% strike rate at Gowran adds little encouragement. The jockey is also without a winner from five rides here.
Master GarveyKTB Fit 30/100
Master Garvey is a limited performer who has shown occasional spark at this track, finishing third on his most recent visit here. He steps up in trip today having been placed at the distance before, though he has been largely out of form this year and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer and jockey both remain winless at Gowran.
My VonnieKTB Fit 29/100
My Vonnie is a limited sort who has shown very little in 18 starts and arrives in poor form. First-time headgear is reached for but the yard is 0-6 at Gowran and the jockey is operating at a 3% strike rate here. She steps up in trip with no strong evidence she will improve for it.
Lady LuckKTB Fit 27/100
Lady Luck is a limited performer who has been well beaten on all four starts on good ground and finished a remote tenth on her only previous run here. Dropping back from 1m4½f to 1m1½f asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also a new factor. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates at Gowran.
KTB verdict
Deuteronomy is the KTB selection. A limited performer who has won once at Gowran Park, he drops back in trip and is tried in first-time headgear while the trainer holds a solid record at the venue. The tentative pace shape may not be ideal for his usual held-up style but he is rated the best of these on KTB figures. Main dangers are Burford Beauty, who also tries first-time headgear and steps up in trip from a good draw, Yquem who has shown a win and a third from his last four starts, and Magna Gee Gee who is suited by dropping back from 1m4f and can race prominently. Haughty completes the main principals but has struggled this year.
KTB Selection Deuteronomy
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection?
Deuteronomy
How many horses are trying first-time headgear?
Seven horses are trying first-time headgear: Deuteronomy, Burford Beauty, Hexagonal, Georg Zhukov, Master Garvey, My Vonnie and Lady Luck.
Which horse is likely to make the running?
Morning Approach tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has won at Gowran Park?
Deuteronomy has won once from ten runs at Gowran Park.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Gowran Park among the principals?
Yquem's trainer has a 10% strike rate at Gowran Park from 30 runs.
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