5:05 Newcastle (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Newcastle over 7f on standard to slow going brings together a modest field of nine where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but unspectacular contest. The principals are headed by Finn Ironside with a Fit rating of 58, followed by Travis on 53 and a pair on 50 in Coramento and Holly Mist, while the remainder sit in the mid-40s and below. Dropping in class looks a positive for a couple, several runners sport first-time headgear, and with no established leader the race is set up to reward those who can adapt to a tactical pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and is likely to produce a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Finn Ironside is the one who usually races prominently and on or close to the lead, while most of the field prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the prominent runner can maintain his position without going too hard early, or whether one of the patient types can time a late run to best effect in a race where the pace may not be strong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Finn Ironside KTB Selection58/100Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
- 2Travis53/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 3Coramento50/100
- 4Holly Mist50/100
- 5Saisons d'Or46/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 6War And Love46/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 7Rory's Gold44/100
- 8Rogue Officer40/100
- 9Ticktyboo35/100
The contenders
Finn Ironside KTB Fit 58/100
Finn Ironside arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 58 and is the clear selection. A 5-year-old with recent form figures of 438745, he is dropping in class which is viewed as a positive. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he has the run-style that should suit the anticipated steady pace. He has won here from six runs at the track, is placed once from two starts on standard to slow going and remains competitive on that surface. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Newcastle with an A/E of 1.03 from 339 runs, while the jockey shows an 11% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.14 from 46 rides. First-time headgear is now applied.
Travis KTB Fit 53/100
Travis is rated 53 on the KTB Fit scale and holds strong claims. A 5-year-old with form figures of 500133, he has been placed on four of his five starts at this track without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his run-style fits the shape where patient tactics often come to the fore. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Newcastle with an A/E of 0.79 from 164 runs, while the jockey records a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.84 from 176 rides. He is unproven on standard to slow going, which remains the main unknown.
Coramento KTB Fit 50/100
Coramento is rated exactly 50 by KTB. A 5-year-old with form figures of 11-669, he has won three times from 13 starts at Newcastle and clearly knows his way around the track. He is unproven on standard to slow going, which adds a layer of uncertainty. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.00 from 95 runs, while the jockey shows a 12% strike rate at Newcastle with an A/E of 0.79 from 300 rides. His ability to produce his best at this track makes him a definite contender in a race lacking depth.
Holly Mist KTB Fit 50/100
Holly Mist also sits on a KTB Fit of 50. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 345536 and is now fitted with first-time headgear. The trainer boasts a 24% strike rate at Newcastle with an A/E of 0.86 from 368 runs, while the jockey has an 18% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.75 from 399 rides. She has only one run on standard to slow going which produced no win or place, and she has no course form on record. From draw 7 she will need to overcome those blanks if she is to figure prominently.
The rest of the field
Saisons d'OrKTB Fit 46/100
Saisons d'Or is rated 46 on KTB Fit. An 11-year-old with form figures of 041576, he is held up and produces his effort late. He is placed twice from three runs on standard to slow going without winning, and has been placed without winning from 16 starts at Newcastle.
War And LoveKTB Fit 46/100
War And Love is rated 46. The 4-year-old has form figures of 25-934 and is now fitted with first-time headgear. He is placed twice from two starts on standard to slow going without winning, and finished fifth on his only previous run at this course.
Rory's GoldKTB Fit 44/100
Rory's Gold is rated 44 on KTB Fit. A 4-year-old with form figures of 4-6828, he is dropping in class. He is placed once from three starts on standard to slow going without winning, and has no course form on record.
Rogue OfficerKTB Fit 40/100
Rogue Officer is rated 40. The 4-year-old has form figures of 52-900 and is now tried in first-time headgear. He has one run on standard to slow going which brought no win or place, and finished ninth on his only previous start at Newcastle.
TicktybooKTB Fit 35/100
Ticktyboo is rated 35 on KTB Fit. A 5-year-old with form figures of 535-00, he is now fitted with first-time headgear. He has one run on standard to slow going which produced no win or place, and has been placed without winning from five starts at this track.
KTB verdict
Finn Ironside stands out as the KTB Selection. His prominent run-style should be ideally suited to a steadily-run race lacking an obvious leader, he is dropping in class, has already won at the track and is proven to be competitive on the surface. First-time headgear may bring about further improvement for a yard that performs solidly at Newcastle. The main dangers are Travis, who has a strong record of being placed at the venue and whose late run could be well timed, and Coramento, who knows the track well having won three times here. Holly Mist cannot be entirely dismissed given the powerful yard and jockey combination, though she has more to prove on the surface and at the course.
KTB Selection Finn Ironside
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and also has a prominent run-style that should suit the expected pace?
Finn Ironside is dropping in class and usually races handily on or close to the lead.
How many wins has Coramento recorded at Newcastle?
Coramento has won here three times from 13 starts.
Which runners are making their first start in headgear?
Finn Ironside, Holly Mist, War And Love, Rogue Officer and Ticktyboo are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Newcastle on the figures supplied?
Holly Mist's trainer has a 24% strike rate at Newcastle with an A/E of 0.86 from 368 runs.
What is the course record of the selection Finn Ironside at Newcastle?
Finn Ironside has won once from six starts at the track.
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