5:05 Ripon
A competitive Class 6 handicap over 1m1f170y at Ripon on good ground features a field of 15, with the KTB Fit ratings highlighting a cluster of limited performers around the 50 mark. The top five are separated by relatively small margins in the numbers, though Saxon Grace stands out with a clear Fit edge at 64. Several runners step up in trip for the first time while others return to a distance where they have previous success, and the presence of multiple habitual front-runners sets up what looks a strongly-run race.
How the race shapes up
With two or more horses who tend to make the running or race prominently, a strong pace is anticipated and the early fractions could prove testing. This shape is likely to suit those held up towards the rear who can produce their effort late, as the pace may collapse in the final furlong. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can dictate matters without overdoing it, or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient hold-up performer from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Saxon Grace KTB Selection64/100Saxon Grace is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed her best side when winning two of her last three starts over around a mi…
- 2Woodleigh54/100Woodleigh is a limited horse who has been in and out of form this year but knows his way around Ripon having won here from three runs.
- 3Feliz Navidad54/100Modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs this year, finishing fifth on each of his last two starts.
- 4Marlena's Prince52/100Limited performer on pedigree who makes his debut in first-time headgear.
- 5Casilli50/100Limited horse who has won once in four runs at this track and also has a solid record on good ground with three wins from 12 starts.
- 6Riddikulus50/100Limited performer who has shown enough at this track to win twice from three starts here.
- 7Horwich50/100Limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 12 starts this year and arrives here on the back of six defeats.
- 8Daring Leader49/100Limited performer who has shown enough at this track and trip to stay competitive in this grade.
- 9Sunny Orange47/100Modest performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, finishing in the first four in five of his last six starts.
- 10Magic Runner47/100Limited class performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 11Kitsune Power46/100Limited performer who has won at this trip but has been largely out of form this year and looks modest at best on recent runs.
- 12War And Love45/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning.
- 13Little Ted44/100Little Ted is a limited performer with a solid record here at Ripon including one win from nine runs.
- 14Tiberio Force37/100Limited performer who has won once here and once at today's trip but has looked modest at best on his last four starts.
- 15Hijo de La Luna33/100Limited performer who has been largely out of form this year and now tries first-time headgear.
The contenders
Saxon Grace KTB Fit 64/100
Saxon Grace is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed her best side when winning two of her last three starts over around a mile. She now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question, while this is also her first run at Ripon. The trainer has had too few runners here to judge but the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate from 156 rides at the track. From draw 11 she is likely to be held up and produce her effort late in a race where that run-style could be an advantage. Her recent form figures of 640311 underline the upturn in her fortunes, and she arrives here as the KTB Selection.
Woodleigh KTB Fit 54/100
Woodleigh is a limited horse who has been in and out of form this year but knows his way around Ripon having won here from three runs. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance so that looks a fair ask while the good ground is acceptable without being ideal. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track, with the combination showing 11 wins from 87 rides together. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. His recent form of 211554 shows the ability is still there when things fall right.
Feliz Navidad KTB Fit 54/100
Feliz Navidad is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs this year, finishing fifth on each of his last two starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. O'Meara has a solid 15% strike rate at Ripon while Tudhope is even better on 21%. Dropping in class should help and from a middle draw he is expected to be held up with his effort coming late. The run-style aligns well with the likely strong pace in the race.
Marlena's Prince KTB Fit 52/100
Marlena's Prince is a limited performer on pedigree who makes his debut in first-time headgear. Connections have a modest record at Ripon but the jockey has performed above expectations here with an A/E of 1.68 from 57 rides. Data is too thin to draw firm conclusions on his ability at this trip and on good ground. From draw 7 he could be handy enough in a race where the pace is set to be strong. Recent form of 4432 suggests he has been competitive at this level without winning.
Casilli KTB Fit 50/100
Casilli is a limited horse who has won once in four runs at this track and also has a solid record on good ground with three wins from 12 starts. Steps up in trip today having last run over a mile but has won three times at this distance in the past. Trainer and jockey both have respectable records at Ripon, with the yard showing 11% strike rate from 93 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should relish the strong pace on offer. His course-and-distance profile makes him one to consider in a race where late closers are favoured.
The rest of the field
RiddikulusKTB Fit 50/100
Riddikulus is a limited performer who has shown enough at this track to win twice from three starts here. Has taken a good share of the prize money on good ground and at this trip, though the first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse that can look moody. Trainer has a solid record at Ripon but the jockey is still seeking his first winner at the track from 40 rides.
HorwichKTB Fit 50/100
Horwich is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 12 starts this year and arrives here on the back of six defeats. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while the horse remains unproven on good ground. Trainer Ruth Carr has a solid 12% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample, though jockey William Pyle is operating below that level with a 9% record at the track.
Daring LeaderKTB Fit 49/100
Daring Leader is a limited performer who has shown enough at this track and trip to stay competitive in this grade. Placed on his only visit to Ripon and has won once at today's distance, with a solid record on good ground that includes two successes. Trainer's modest 0% strike-rate from 25 runs at the course is a negative, though Jason Hart's 14% record from 332 rides here offers some balance. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Sunny OrangeKTB Fit 47/100
Sunny Orange is a modest performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, finishing in the first four in five of his last six starts. He has shown enough at this trip to suggest the distance will suit and has already run creditably over course and distance, though he remains winless on good ground from nine attempts. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Ripon.
Magic RunnerKTB Fit 47/100
Magic Runner is a limited class performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Has won at today's trip but showed no spark on his only previous run on good ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Ripon though neither figure stands out.
Kitsune PowerKTB Fit 46/100
Kitsune Power is a limited performer who has won at this trip but has been largely out of form this year and looks modest at best on recent runs. Two efforts at Ripon have produced no impact and the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer has a solid 10% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at a 4% rate from limited rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
War And LoveKTB Fit 45/100
War And Love is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning. Finished third over course and distance on his only visit here but steps up in trip today for the first time while wearing headgear. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ripon.
Little TedKTB Fit 44/100
Little Ted is a limited performer with a solid record here at Ripon including one win from nine runs. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance in the past and has shown consistent placed efforts on his last three starts. First-time headgear is now added while both trainer and jockey have established but modest records at the track.
Tiberio ForceKTB Fit 37/100
Tiberio Force is a limited performer who has won once here and once at today's trip but has looked modest at best on his last four starts. First-time headgear is now reached for while he remains drawn on the inside. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ripon.
Hijo de La LunaKTB Fit 33/100
Hijo de La Luna is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year and now tries first-time headgear. Drops back to a trip he has won at in the past but his record on good ground is modest and the yard has yet to strike at this track from 19 runners. Jockey has a solid 8% strike rate here from a big sample.
KTB verdict
Saxon Grace is the KTB Selection. She has shown her best side with two wins from her last three starts and while the step up in trip and first run at Ripon pose questions, her hold-up style looks ideal given the strong pace that is likely to unfold. The selection has the highest KTB Fit rating in the field and the combination of trainer and jockey has been productive. Main dangers include Woodleigh, who knows the track well and has won at the trip, and Feliz Navidad who drops in class with the powerful O'Meara-Tudhope partnership. Casilli also merits respect with his course record and proven ability at the distance.
KTB Selection Saxon Grace
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and is the selection?
Saxon Grace with a KTB Fit of 64/100.
How many runners are likely to set a strong pace and what does this favour?
Two or more habitual front-runners make a strong pace likely which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are making their first attempt at the trip?
Saxon Grace, Feliz Navidad, Horwich and War And Love are all stepping up in trip for the first time.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Ripon among those riding in this race?
Daniel Tudhope with a 21% strike rate at Ripon.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Marlena's Prince, Riddikulus, Sunny Orange, Kitsune Power, War And Love, Little Ted, Tiberio Force and Hijo de La Luna are all in first-time headgear.
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