5:05 York
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at York brings together a field of 13 where the majority are rated fair performers on recent evidence. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Brazen Bolt heading the numbers on 65 despite patchy form, while several others sit in the low-to-mid 50s and look capable of making an impact if the race shape falls their way. Good to firm ground is a leveller here, and the wide draw in stall 12 for the selection adds an extra layer of interest to how the sprint develops.
How the race shapes up
With a mix of prominent racers and those who like to come from off the pace, the race is likely to be run at a strong gallop. Several runners, including Brazen Bolt from the wide draw, Ziggy's Triton and Spring Is Sprung, are inclined to race up with the pace, while others such as Eternal Sunshine and Muker may look to come from slightly further back. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with it on this fast surface or if the race will be won by something coming from off the pace in the later stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Brazen Bolt KTB Selection65/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 2Ziggy's Triton55/100Fair performer who has won five times at this trip but has been below form for much of this year.
- 3Ancient State55/100Ancient State is a fair performer who has been in good form this year with four wins from seven starts at this trip.
- 4Spring Is Sprung51/100Spring Is Sprung is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but his record at York is modest with four runs yielding a best of fourth.
- 5Eternal Sunshine51/100Fair performer who has run six times at York without winning but has been placed once.
- 6Al Hussar50/100Fair performer who has run five times at York without placing and looks up against it from stall 13.
- 7Emerald Harmony49/100Fair performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in the last six starts.
- 8Castan46/100Castan is a fair performer who has run well at York before, finishing second here on his penultimate start.
- 9Rotokura Belle45/100Rotokura Belle is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at York and has scored three times at this trip from 14 attempts.
- 10Counsel43/100Fair performer who has won three times at this trip but arrives in modest form and is making his first start at York.
- 11Equity Law43/100Equity Law is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip but looks vulnerable dropped into a stronger race at York.
- 12Muker42/100Muker is a modest performer with a solid record at this trip including eight wins from 49 starts.
- 13I'm Dan Dare38/100Modest performer who has shown a bit more spark this year with two wins in lesser company and a solid second over this trip at the track.
The contenders
Brazen Bolt KTB Fit 65/100
Brazen Bolt is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. His recent form is patchy and the wide draw is unhelpful on fast ground where his record is only moderate. The nine-year-old drops in class here and has two wins from 17 starts on good to firm, with ten placed efforts to go with them. Ruth Carr's 7% strike rate at York from 137 runs and Warren Fentiman's 10% from 39 rides at the track are both solid enough to keep the selection on the shortlist.
Ziggy's Triton KTB Fit 55/100
Ziggy's Triton is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip but has been below form for much of this year. The four-year-old's York record is poor from two starts and the trainer's modest strike rate at the track adds little confidence. He drops in class and first-time headgear is now tried on good to firm ground that suits, with one win and two places from just two starts on the surface. Daniel Tudhope takes the ride for a yard that has a 15% strike rate with him overall.
Ancient State KTB Fit 55/100
Ancient State is a fair performer who has been in good form this year with four wins from seven starts at this trip. The four-year-old steps up in class but has won on good to firm ground from just two attempts and Charles Bishop rides with a solid 8% strike rate at York from 39 rides. First-time headgear is now applied on his first visit to this track. The yard's overall figures with him read 25% from 16 runs.
Spring Is Sprung KTB Fit 51/100
Spring Is Sprung is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but his record at York is modest with four runs yielding a best of fourth. The seven-year-old drops in class, acts on good to firm ground and has placed four times from twelve starts on it. Paul Midgley's 5% strike rate at the track from 336 runs and Mark Winn's 7% from 55 rides add little encouragement. Recent form reads 144743.
Eternal Sunshine KTB Fit 51/100
Eternal Sunshine is a fair performer who has run six times at York without winning but has been placed once. Recent form is patchy and the yard's modest 5% strike rate here from 391 runs adds little confidence. The six-year-old goes well on good to firm with two wins from six starts on the surface and three wins at this trip overall. Lauren Young takes the mount from draw eight.
The rest of the field
Al HussarKTB Fit 50/100
Al Hussar is a fair performer who has run five times at York without placing and looks up against it from stall 13. He has won at this trip and handles good to firm, yet his recent form has been patchy and the yard plus jockey both show modest records at the track. First-time headgear is the unknown that could sharpen him up.
Emerald HarmonyKTB Fit 49/100
Emerald Harmony is a fair performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in the last six starts. Drawn in stall one which could be an advantage over this trip but the trainer and jockey both have modest records at York. Goes well on good to firm with a win and two places from three starts on the surface and has won at this distance.
CastanKTB Fit 46/100
Castan is a fair performer who has run well at York before, finishing second here on his penultimate start. He has won nine times at this trip and acts on good to firm ground, though his recent form has been mixed with a poor effort last time out. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track while first-time headgear is now tried.
Rotokura BelleKTB Fit 45/100
Rotokura Belle is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at York and has scored three times at this trip from 14 attempts. She has shown inconsistent form of late with a 616417 record but has the benefit of a solid draw in stall five. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate here from 46 runs while the jockey is operating at 3% from 275 rides.
CounselKTB Fit 43/100
Counsel is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip but arrives in modest form and is making his first start at York. He has been competitive on good to firm but without winning, and the first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer has a 5% strike rate from 193 runs at the track while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
Equity LawKTB Fit 43/100
Equity Law is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip but looks vulnerable dropped into a stronger race at York. He has shown little here in two previous runs and the yard's modest strike rate at the track adds little encouragement. First-time headgear is the main positive on ground he handles.
MukerKTB Fit 42/100
Muker is a modest performer with a solid record at this trip including eight wins from 49 starts. He has won at York from six runs here though his recent form is ordinary and the wide draw in stall 11 is far from ideal. The trainer's 6% strike rate from 386 runs at the track and the jockey's 4% from 26 rides add little encouragement.
I'm Dan DareKTB Fit 38/100
I'm Dan Dare is a modest performer who has shown a bit more spark this year with two wins in lesser company and a solid second over this trip at the track. He acts on good to firm and has won at today's distance but the yard's poor record here and the jockey's complete lack of success at York are both concerns. First-time headgear is now fitted.
KTB verdict
Brazen Bolt is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track, his trainer and jockey both have solid enough York figures to keep him on the shortlist despite patchy recent form and a wide draw. The drop in class is another plus on ground where he has two wins from 17 starts. Main dangers include Ancient State, who has been in good form this year with four wins from seven starts at this trip and now tries first-time headgear, and Eternal Sunshine, who has been placed at York and goes well on good to firm. Ziggy's Triton with first-time headgear and Spring Is Sprung are others who can feature if things go their way.
KTB Selection Brazen Bolt
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent win record at this trip?
Ancient State has four wins from seven starts at this trip this year.
How many wins has Brazen Bolt recorded at York?
Brazen Bolt has one win from seven starts at York.
Which runners are making their first start in first-time headgear?
Ziggy's Triton, Ancient State, Al Hussar, Castan, Counsel, Equity Law and I'm Dan Dare are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest York jockey record among the principals?
Warren Fentiman has a 10% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.45 from 39 rides.
Which horse has won at this track from the fewest runs?
Rotokura Belle has won here from two runs at York.
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