5:08 Stratford
A small but competitive Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m2f148y on good to firm ground brings five runners to post. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top three, headed by Basilette on 70, with Lucy The Wire on 60 and Roarin' Success on 58, while the remaining pair are rated some way behind on 40 and 34. Recent course form and the addition of first-time headgear to several runners add layers of interest to what looks a race that could be decided by how the new headgear and step-up in trip are received.
How the race shapes up
With a field of only five and no pronounced front-runner declared, the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side early on. Basilette and Roarin' Success both have prominent run-styles and are likely to track or dispute from the outset, while Lucy The Wire may be held up off that pace. The key question is whether the step up in trip for the two principals behind Basilette will allow that prominent pace to be sustainable to the line or if it will play into the hands of the selection who has already shown she handles the distance.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Basilette KTB Selection70/100Basilette is a useful performer who has won three times at Stratford from eight runs and shown she handles this trip with two wins from three starts.
- 2Lucy The Wire60/100Smart performer who showed sharp improvement to win last time and arrives in good form.
- 3Roarin' Success58/100Useful performer who has already won over hurdles at this track from just one visit.
- 4Klervia40/100Klervia is a fair maiden who has shown ordinary form at best on her last three starts.
- 5Dusky Spyglass34/100Fair performer who showed some ability when fourth over this course and distance on his penultimate start.
The contenders
Basilette KTB Fit 70/100
Basilette is a useful performer who has won three times at Stratford from eight runs and shown she handles this trip with two wins from three starts. She arrives in decent form after a recent course victory and has a solid record on good to firm ground with a win and four places from eight attempts. First-time headgear is now added while the trainer has no previous runners at the track. The jockey has a 20% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.57 from 40 rides. Overall the trainer operates at 17% from 224 runs. With recent form figures of 114-41 and official figures that support her position at the head of the weights, she looks the one to beat.
Lucy The Wire KTB Fit 60/100
Lucy The Wire is a smart performer who showed sharp improvement to win last time and arrives in good form. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Stratford though the horse was well held on its only previous run here. The combination of trainer and jockey shows 49 wins from 219 rides at 22% with an A/E of 0.99. The jockey alone has a 32% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.14 from 19 rides. Recent form reads 242-81 and at the age of four she remains open to further progress if the new trip and headgear both work in her favour.
Roarin' Success KTB Fit 58/100
Roarin' Success is a useful performer who has already won over hurdles at this track from just one visit. She steps up in trip for the first time today and tries headgear having looked as though he was in need of it when winning last time. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from a large sample of 217 runs with an A/E of 0.9. The trainer-jockey combination has produced 17 wins from 144 rides at 12% with an A/E of 0.87. Recent form is 624-51 and with a win and a place from six runs on good to firm she should handle the ground. The course win gives her a clear foothold in this small-field affair.
The rest of the field
KlerviaKTB Fit 40/100
Klervia is a fair maiden who has shown ordinary form at best on her last three starts. She drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time and has no experience on good to firm ground beyond a single unplaced run. This is her first visit to Stratford and the yard has no prior runners here. Recent form reads 4P-537.
Dusky SpyglassKTB Fit 34/100
Dusky Spyglass is a fair performer who showed some ability when fourth over this course and distance on his penultimate start. He has failed to complete on two of his four starts though and the first-time headgear suggests connections are looking for a spark. Drops back in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Stratford from two runs and the jockey is also 0% from one ride. Recent form is P5/4P- and she remains unproven on good to firm ground.
KTB verdict
Basilette stands out as the KTB Selection. She has already proven herself at this track with three wins from eight runs, handles the trip, and comes here in decent order after a recent course success. The addition of first-time headgear is the only unknown but her record on good to firm and the positive jockey figures at Stratford add to her appeal. Lucy The Wire and Roarin' Success are the main dangers, both useful in their own right and both entering the race in good heart, though the step up in trip and first-time headgear for each of them introduce fresh questions that Basilette has already answered.
KTB Selection Basilette
This is the narrative read of the 5:08 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Stratford?
Basilette has won three times at Stratford from eight runs and Roarin' Success has won from her one visit.
How many of the runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four of the five runners are wearing first-time headgear: Basilette, Lucy The Wire, Roarin' Success and Dusky Spyglass.
Which horse is stepping up in trip?
Both Lucy The Wire and Roarin' Success are stepping up in trip for the first time today.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Stratford for the yard of the selection?
The trainer of Basilette has no Stratford record from zero previous runners.
Which runner has the highest jockey strike rate at the track?
The jockey on Lucy The Wire has a 32% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.14 from 19 rides.
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