5:13 Windsor
This Class 4 fillies' novice stakes over 6f12y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together a small but open-looking field of five. The KTB Fit ratings point to a clear top three, headed by Cercis on 66, with Sunday Girl and Queen Of Hope closely matched on 52 and 51 respectively, while the remainder sit in the mid-40s. With limited exposed form across the board and several runners unproven on the surface, the race lacks depth yet carries enough unknowns to make it competitive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with low confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead. Cercis and Just Dreaming both have front-running tendencies, though the latter's evidence is limited, which could see one of them dictate from the front. The key question is whether that uncontested advantage will prove decisive on this stiff track, or if the closers, particularly those stepping forward from modest form, can bridge the gap in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cercis KTB Selection66/100Limited performer who has shown fair placed form on his last two starts.
- 2Sunday Girl52/100Sunday Girl showed promise when third on debut over this trip, suggesting she has ability to build on.
- 3Queen Of Hope51/100Queen Of Hope is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 4Just Dreaming47/100Limited performer who has shown little since a placed effort on debut over this trip.
- 5Encore45/100Encore showed fair promise when fifth on debut over this trip last season.
The contenders
Cercis KTB Fit 66/100
Cercis arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 66 and is taken to land this. A limited performer, she has shown fair placed form on her last two starts after an initial fifth. Dropping back to 6f today having failed to land a blow over the trip on debut, she is expected to make the running or race prominently given her front-running style. The trainer posts a 15% strike rate at Windsor from 13 runs with an A/E of 1.93, while jockey Benoit de la Sayette holds a 22% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.63 from 67 rides. Although she has two runs on good to firm without a win or place and no previous course form, the overall profile and KTB assessment mark her out as the one to beat.
Sunday Girl KTB Fit 52/100
Sunday Girl is rated 52 on KTB Fit and showed promise when third on debut over this trip. That run suggests she has the ability to build on, though the small sample leaves little else to go on and the going remains an unknown as she has no runs on good to firm. Trained by Ed Walker, who has a 17% strike rate at Windsor from 234 runs with an A/E of 1.04, she is ridden by Kieran Shoemark whose Windsor record stands at 13% with an A/E of 1 from 296 rides. With no course form on record and only the one piece of placed form in the book, she represents a solid but unproven threat if the ground proves suitable.
Queen Of Hope KTB Fit 51/100
Queen Of Hope is a newcomer rated 51 on KTB Fit with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree, by a sire with a 14% overall win rate from 963 runners, and sales background provide the only clues, while connections will hope she is ready to go on debut on good to firm ground. The yard holds a respectable 13% strike rate at Windsor from 23 runs with an A/E of 1.17, and Hector Crouch takes the ride with a 14% strike rate at the track from 268 rides and an A/E of 1.08. Without previous course wins or any exposed form, she remains something of an unknown quantity but cannot be entirely dismissed on pedigree and yard record.
The rest of the field
Just DreamingKTB Fit 47/100
Just Dreaming is a limited performer rated 47 on KTB Fit who has shown little since a placed effort on debut over this trip. She ran fifth of nine on her only visit to Windsor and has failed to build on that in two starts since, though she has been placed once from two runs on good to firm. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Windsor from 452 runs with an A/E of 0.85.
EncoreKTB Fit 45/100
Encore showed fair promise when fifth on debut over this trip last season and is rated 45 on KTB Fit. Lightly raced with only one run to judge him on, the small sample makes it hard to be certain about his level though the yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Windsor from 458 runs with an A/E of 0.88. He has no runs on good to firm and is stepping up in class while usually held up.
KTB verdict
Cercis stands out at the top of the KTB Fit ratings and is the selection. She has shown the best of the placed form on offer, is suited by the anticipated uncontested lead from her front-running style, and benefits from a trainer and jockey combination with strong Windsor figures. Sunday Girl and Queen Of Hope are the main dangers, the former building on a promising debut while the latter brings an unknown but potentially useful pedigree. The remainder look limited on what they have shown to date.
KTB Selection Cercis
This is the narrative read of the 5:13 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to make the running?
Cercis tends to make the running or race on the pace, and the pace shape indicates a lone leader with an uncontested lead is likely.
What is Cercis's recent form and trip change?
Recent form figures are 5-42 and she drops back to 6f today having failed to land a blow over that trip on debut.
How does the trainer of Sunday Girl perform at Windsor?
Ed Walker has a 17% strike rate at Windsor from 234 runs with an A/E of 1.04.
What is the sire win rate associated with Queen Of Hope?
By Pinatubo, who has a 14% overall win rate from 963 runners.
Has Encore raced on good to firm before?
No runs on good to firm — unproven on the ground.
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