5:18 Lingfield (AW)
This Class 5 apprentice handicap over 7f1y at Lingfield on the all-weather features an 11-runner field in which several modest performers hold recent placed form but few boast strong recent winning credentials. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but unexceptional contest, with Mister Mojito heading the ratings on the back of three wins from as many starts at the venue. Conditions look set to favour those with course experience and a tactical position, given the unproven nature of several runners on this surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough without burning too much gas, or whether the race will fall into the lap of one of the patient runners coming from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mister Mojito KTB Selection70/100Mister Mojito is a modest performer who has won three times from as many starts at Lingfield.
- 2Sahana60/100Modest performer who has won both starts over this trip including a C&D success on her only previous visit here.
- 3Sub Thirteen58/100Limited performer who has been largely out of form this year and is now trying first-time headgear.
- 4Dancing Terror57/100Modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just five career starts.
- 5Optimatum54/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form lately with a string of modest efforts.
- 6Dandy Khan54/100Modest performer who has won five times at this track from 16 starts and also has four wins from 15 runs at this trip.
- 7Rogue Dynasty54/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 44232 and has placed on both previous runs at this track.
- 8Daisy Roots53/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from 13 runs and has also scored at today's trip.
- 9Ashford Hill48/100Limited horse who has won twice here but is 0-6 on the AW this year and looks exposed now.
- 10Penfolds Grange47/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on turf but is unproven on the all-weather surface.
- 11Majestic Wave45/100Modest performer who has been placed once in seven runs at Lingfield without winning.
The contenders
Mister Mojito KTB Fit 70/100
Mister Mojito is a modest performer who has won three times from as many starts at Lingfield. He has also won at this trip and the yard's solid 22% strike rate here adds some encouragement, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. The horse remains unproven on this surface. T J Kent and Jack Callan both have healthy strike rates at the track, with the trainer on 22% (A/E 1.4) and the jockey on 19% (A/E 1.37). Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 5 and arrives with recent form figures of 54-562. As the KTB Selection he is taken to put his course record to good use in a steadily-run race.
Sahana KTB Fit 60/100
Sahana is a modest performer who has won both starts over this trip including a course-and-distance success on her only previous visit here. Recent placed efforts over 6f show she remains in reasonable form but she now steps back up in distance for the first time since last year. Trainer David Simcock has a solid 16% strike rate at the track from a large sample. Taryn Langley takes the ride with a 16% strike rate at Lingfield (A/E 1.19). Usually held up and producing her effort late from stall 9, she has recent form figures of 165-25 and remains unproven on this surface.
Sub Thirteen KTB Fit 58/100
Sub Thirteen is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year and is now trying first-time headgear. He drops back to 7f having failed to win in four previous runs at the trip while the switch to Lingfield AW is another unknown. Trainer Jeremy Scott has a solid 26% strike rate here (A/E 1.72). Olivia Tubb takes the mount with a 13% strike rate at the venue (A/E 1.26). Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 6, he has recent form figures of 620832 and was placed once on this surface without winning.
Dancing Terror KTB Fit 57/100
Dancing Terror is a modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just five career starts. Recent efforts have been poor though and the yard's 3% strike-rate at Lingfield offers little encouragement. Stall 10 adds another negative on an AW 7f. Liam Wright rides with a 16% strike rate at the track (A/E 1.53). Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives with form figures of /2-006 and remains unproven on this surface.
Optimatum KTB Fit 54/100
Optimatum is a modest performer who has been largely out of form lately with a string of modest efforts. He steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having failed to land a blow at the trip in five previous attempts. Trainer Rod Millman has an 8% strike rate here from 431 runs. Charlie Tucker takes the ride with an 11% strike rate at Lingfield (A/E 1.26). Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 4, he has recent form figures of 5729-9 and remains unproven on this surface.
The rest of the field
Dandy KhanKTB Fit 54/100
Dandy Khan is a modest performer who has won five times at this track from 16 starts and also has four wins from 15 runs at this trip. Consistent enough without being progressive lately with recent form reading 535656, he remains unproven on this surface. Jim Boyle has a 9% strike rate here while Ashley Lewis rides with a 13% strike rate at the venue.
Rogue DynastyKTB Fit 54/100
Rogue Dynasty is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 44232 and has placed on both previous runs at this track. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has won over before while first-time headgear is now applied. James Owen has a solid 17% strike rate here from 134 runs though the jockey has limited experience at the track.
Daisy RootsKTB Fit 53/100
Daisy Roots is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from 13 runs and has also scored at today's trip. Recent form is ordinary and the yard's modest strike-rate here adds no confidence. She remains unproven on this surface.
Ashford HillKTB Fit 48/100
Ashford Hill is a limited horse who has won twice here but is 0-6 on the AW this year and looks exposed now. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before, though the switch to an unknown surface adds uncertainty. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate at Lingfield.
Penfolds GrangeKTB Fit 47/100
Penfolds Grange is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on turf but is unproven on the all-weather surface. He has two runs here without placing and drops back from 1m today where he has looked stretched. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
Majestic WaveKTB Fit 45/100
Majestic Wave is a modest performer who has been placed once in seven runs at Lingfield without winning. Recent form has been patchy but he showed a bit more when second of nine over this trip at the track last time. The trainer maintains a 10 percent strike rate here from a huge sample while the 7 lb claimer is an unknown quantity.
KTB verdict
Mister Mojito stands out on his three-from-three record at Lingfield and is duly the KTB Selection. His ability to win at this trip, the yard's healthy strike rate at the venue and a favourable draw all strengthen the case in a race that looks likely to be run at a steady pace. The main dangers are Sahana, who boasts a C&D win and is in reasonable nick, and Rogue Dynasty, who has been consistent of late and now tries first-time headgear. Sub Thirteen and Dancing Terror add further depth but look to have more to overcome.
KTB Selection Mister Mojito
This is the narrative read of the 5:18 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Lingfield?
Mister Mojito has won three times from as many starts at Lingfield.
How many of the field are wearing headgear for the first time?
Three runners are wearing first-time headgear: Mister Mojito, Sub Thirteen and Rogue Dynasty.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Lingfield AW among those represented?
Jeremy Scott has a 26% strike rate at Lingfield (A/E 1.72 from 27 runs).
Which horse has won the most times at this track?
Dandy Khan has won five times at this track from 16 starts.
Who is the only horse with a course-and-distance win on its record?
Sahana has a C&D success on her only previous visit here.
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