5:20 Chepstow
This Class 5 handicap over 1m4f at Chepstow on good to firm ground features a compact field of seven, with the KTB Fit scores tightly bunched between 60 and 41. The race marks a new trip for several runners while others return to a distance at which they have previous experience, and the official ratings suggest a modest level of ability across the board. With two or more confirmed front-runners present the pace is expected to be strong, which in turn places emphasis on the hold-up performers who can pick up the pieces if the leaders fold late.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of habitual front-runners Curran and Cosmo Brown, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. Several hold-up types, headed by the selection Aravalli and Double Red, will be content to sit off that pace and deliver their efforts in the straight. The key question is whether the leaders will overdo things on this good to firm surface, potentially setting the race up for those coming from off the pace in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Aravalli KTB Selection60/100Modest performer who has won both starts at Chepstow and arrives in solid form after two recent victories.
- 2Double Red58/100Double Red is a fair performer who has been consistent at this level lately, finishing second in two of his last three starts.
- 3Oasis Sunrise55/100Modest performer who has won once here from four runs and also has a win at this trip on his record.
- 4Curran52/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best side when winning over 1m6f last time.
- 5Polemon49/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win.
- 6Virtue Diligence45/100Modest performer who has shown some progress in handicaps, finishing third at Goodwood last time after earlier promise at this trip.
- 7Cosmo Brown41/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in four runs this year, finishing no closer than eighth.
The contenders
Aravalli KTB Fit 60/100
Aravalli is a modest performer who has won both starts at Chepstow and arrives in solid form after two recent victories. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today having won once at the trip from two attempts, while the good-to-firm ground has brought out the best in him so far. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.22 from 41 runs and the jockey posts a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.16 from 65 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 1 and has recent form figures of 449114. Trainer and jockey both hold above-average records at the track.
Double Red KTB Fit 58/100
Double Red is a fair performer who has been consistent at this level lately, finishing second in two of his last three starts. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while with first-time headgear, having shown only one unplaced effort at this distance before. The yard has a solid record at Chepstow with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.04 from 281 runs while the jockey's strike rate here is more modest at 9% with an A/E of 0.68 from 205 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is dropping in class with recent form figures of -18442 and has 1 win from 7 on good to firm. The first-time headgear is now added.
Oasis Sunrise KTB Fit 55/100
Oasis Sunrise is a modest performer who has won once here from four runs and also has a win at this trip on his record. He arrives in decent form with three seconds and a third from his last six starts and handles good to firm well enough with 1 win from 9 and 4 placed. The trainer strikes at a steady 9% rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.85 from 433 runs while the jockey is operating above expectations with a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.31 from 64 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is dropping in class with recent form figures of 211433.
Curran KTB Fit 52/100
Curran is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best side when winning over 1m6f last time. He drops back to 1m4f today where he is 0-3 without placing so the trip asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.87 from 654 runs while the 7lb claimer is operating at a similar level on his handful of rides here with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 0.99 from 7 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he has recent form figures of -01651 and 2 wins from 6 on good to firm.
The rest of the field
PolemonKTB Fit 49/100
Polemon is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win. He has won twice at this trip in the past and returns to it today after a much longer run last time, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. The trainer's modest record at Chepstow is offset by the jockey's solid 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.25 from 31 rides.
Virtue DiligenceKTB Fit 45/100
Virtue Diligence is a modest performer who has shown some progress in handicaps, finishing third at Goodwood last time after earlier promise at this trip. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 58 runs at Chepstow while the jockey posts a stronger 19% from 36 rides here. Lightly raced with only four career starts and too few runs to judge going suitability.
Cosmo BrownKTB Fit 41/100
Cosmo Brown is a modest performer who has shown little spark in four runs this year, finishing no closer than eighth. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard have a solid 21% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.19 from 24 runs, but the jockey is operating below par with a 10% record from 31 rides. The trip looks a fair question having failed to make an impact over it last time.
KTB verdict
Aravalli stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won both starts at Chepstow, arrives in solid recent form, and the step up to 1m4f looks within range given his record at the trip and the way good-to-firm ground has suited him. His hold-up style is well suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold, and both trainer and jockey have above-average records at the track. The main dangers are Double Red, who is consistent at this level and now tries first-time headgear, and Oasis Sunrise, who has course-and-distance form and is dropping in class.
KTB Selection Aravalli
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Aravalli | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Double Red | 10/3 | William Hill |
| Oasis Sunrise | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Curran | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Polemon | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Virtue Diligence | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Cosmo Brown | 11/2 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both its starts at Chepstow?
Aravalli has won both starts at Chepstow.
How many front-runners are in the field and what does that mean for the pace?
There are two or more habitual front-runners and the pace looks strong and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Double Red, Polemon and Cosmo Brown are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse is stepping up to 1m4f for the first time today?
Aravalli is stepping up to 1m4f for the first time today.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Chepstow among the principals?
Ray Dawson has a 20% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.31 from 64 rides.
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