5:20 Goodwood
This Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes is a competitive Class 3 event over 1m1f11y at Goodwood on good to firm ground, featuring an 18-runner field where the KTB numbers show a tight bunch at the top with five principals rated between 54 and 59. The selection, Crest Of Fire, shares the highest Fit Score of 59 alongside Alpha Crucis, while the race features several first-time headgear applications and class droppers. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race full of familiar faces at the track with mixed recent form and several trip unknowns that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to insufficient run-style evidence across the field. Crest Of Fire is the only horse noted as prominent, usually racing handily or close to the lead, yet with limited evidence. This leaves the race without a clear leader or obvious pace anchor, meaning the key question is how the tempo will unfold and whether those with the ability to race prominently can turn that into an advantage or if the race will develop into a more even affair from the stalls.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Alpha Crucis59/100Alpha Crucis is a useful performer who has won three times from seven starts at Goodwood and drops back to a trip he has won at before.
- 2Crest Of Fire KTB Selection59/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts.
- 3Nostrum58/100Fair horse who has shown mixed form this year and was well held on his last two starts.
- 4Ammes55/100Fair performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing second.
- 5Boyfriend54/100Useful performer who has run well at this track without winning, finishing third on his latest visit.
- 6Blue Courvoisier54/100Useful performer who has shown strong form this season with two wins and a second from his last four starts.
- 7Sweet Reward51/100Sweet Reward is a fair 9-year-old who has won twice at this track from ten runs and holds a solid record on good to firm with two wins and four places from nine…
- 8Real Gain51/100Useful performer who has shown up well at this track before, finishing third on his only completed run here.
- 9Rock Of Cashel51/100Useful performer who has won once from his last six starts and arrives in solid form after a recent victory.
- 10El Matador51/100El Matador is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last five starts.
- 11Shafdar50/100Shafdar is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win and two placings from six runs but also three heavy defeats.
- 12Thinthread50/100Thinthread is a fair performer who ran creditably when fifth on return from a break at this track last month.
- 13Spell Master49/100Spell Master is a fair performer who showed useful form when winning on his only previous start here at Goodwood.
- 14Great Chieftain47/100Fair performer who has won once from two runs at this track.
- 15Point Of Contact47/100Fair performer who won a handicap over this trip on his penultimate start before running creditably in a stronger race last time.
- 16Thunder Wonder43/100Thunder Wonder is a fair performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, most recently finishing a close third at this trip.
- 17Alcaraz42/100Fair performer who ran well on his last two starts last season before a modest return over 1m2f.
- 18First Ambition35/100First Ambition is a fair performer whose recent form has been modest with three placed efforts from nine starts this year.
The contenders
Alpha Crucis KTB Fit 59/100
Alpha Crucis is a useful performer who has won three times from seven starts at Goodwood and drops back to a trip he has won at before. Recent form has been patchy and he is unproven on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now fitted. The six-year-old is drawn in stall 5 with recent form figures of 226-55. Gary and Josh Moore have a 12% strike rate at Goodwood from 111 runs with an A/E of 1.05 while Jason Watson operates at 13% from 157 rides with an A/E of 0.93. The trainer and jockey combination shows 4/44 (9%) with an A/E of 0.65. He drops in class here.
Crest Of Fire KTB Fit 59/100
Crest Of Fire is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 14 is not ideal at this track. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 2-1302 and is drawn in stall 14. Jack Channon has a 14% strike rate at Goodwood from 77 runs with an A/E of 1.03 and Tom Marquand operates at 12% from 455 rides with an A/E of 0.89. The trainer and jockey combination shows 17/74 (23%) with an A/E of 1.20. He has been placed twice from four runs on good to firm without winning and has no course form on record.
Nostrum KTB Fit 58/100
Nostrum is a fair horse who has shown mixed form this year and was well held on his last two starts. He has placed once from two runs at Goodwood and has a solid record on good to firm ground, but steps up in trip today having been outpaced over 7f last time. First-time headgear is now tried. The six-year-old is drawn in stall 7 with recent form figures of -02580. Michael Appleby has a 12% strike rate at Goodwood from 97 runs with an A/E of 1.18 while Jason Hart operates at 13% from 78 rides with an A/E of 1.21. The trainer and jockey combination shows 8/66 (12%) with an A/E of 0.83. He drops in class here and has two wins from eight starts on good to firm with three places.
Ammes KTB Fit 55/100
Ammes is a fair performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing second. He has been consistent without winning lately and is now dropping back in trip for the first time while wearing headgear. The four-year-old is drawn in stall 15 with recent form figures of 3-6244. James Owen has an 11% strike rate at Goodwood from 44 runs with an A/E of 0.85 while Kieran Shoemark operates at 12% from 236 rides with an A/E of 1.02. The trainer and jockey combination shows 8/24 (33%) with an A/E of 1.90. He has been placed twice from four starts on good to firm without winning and has placed once from one run at the course.
Boyfriend KTB Fit 54/100
Boyfriend is a useful performer who has run well at this track without winning, finishing third on his latest visit. He drops back in trip today having been out of the frame in both previous attempts at this distance, though he has shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground. The five-year-old is drawn in stall 12 with recent form figures of 56-813. Richard Hannon has an 11% strike rate at Goodwood from 794 runs with an A/E of 0.85 while Pat Dobbs operates at 10% from 659 rides with an A/E of 0.94. The trainer and jockey combination shows 206/1768 (12%) with an A/E of 0.84. He has been placed twice from five starts on good to firm without winning and has placed once from two runs at the course.
The rest of the field
Blue CourvoisierKTB Fit 54/100
Blue Courvoisier is a useful performer who has shown strong form this season with two wins and a second from his last four starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the Goodwood record of both trainer and jockey is respectable rather than standout. The three-year-old drops in class with recent form figures of 2-2410 and has one win from three starts on good to firm with one place.
Sweet RewardKTB Fit 51/100
Sweet Reward is a fair 9-year-old who has won twice at this track from ten runs and holds a solid record on good to firm with two wins and four places from nine starts. He arrives in decent nick after two wins in his last four starts yet showed little when ninth on his most recent outing. The drop back to 1m1f looks a fair question as he has won twice from seven starts at the trip while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates here.
Real GainKTB Fit 51/100
Real Gain is a useful performer who has shown up well at this track before, finishing third on his only completed run here. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance in the past, though his recent form has been patchy and the wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal. The six-year-old has one win from three starts on good to firm with one place and has placed once from two runs at the course.
Rock Of CashelKTB Fit 51/100
Rock Of Cashel is a useful performer who has won once from his last six starts and arrives in solid form after a recent victory. He steps up in trip today having not been tried beyond 7f so far which asks a fresh question of him while his record on good to firm ground is modest with no win or place from two runs. The four-year-old drops in class and the trainer has only had two runners at Goodwood which is too small a sample to judge.
El MatadorKTB Fit 51/100
El Matador is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last five starts. He has already shown he handles good to firm ground but was well held on his only previous run at Goodwood. The four-year-old drops in class, steps up in trip and has a wide draw in stall 16.
ShafdarKTB Fit 50/100
Shafdar is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win and two placings from six runs but also three heavy defeats. He steps up in trip for the first time today while wearing headgear for the first run, both of which are unknowns. The four-year-old drops in class, remains unproven on good to firm ground and the trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Goodwood.
ThinthreadKTB Fit 50/100
Thinthread is a fair performer who ran creditably when fifth on return from a break at this track last month. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has already won over, and the first-time headgear is now added. The four-year-old is unproven on good to firm ground.
Spell MasterKTB Fit 49/100
Spell Master is a fair performer who showed useful form when winning on his only previous start here at Goodwood. He has a solid record on good to firm ground and drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried. The four-year-old drops in class and the trainer has only three runs at the track so the yard's record here is too small a sample to judge.
Great ChieftainKTB Fit 47/100
Great Chieftain is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at this track. He steps up in trip today having been below form on his last two starts over shorter, though he has shown he handles good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied.
Point Of ContactKTB Fit 47/100
Point Of Contact is a fair performer who won a handicap over this trip on his penultimate start before running creditably in a stronger race last time. He has already shown he handles good to firm and has placed on it, though he was only sixth when he tried this track as a three-year-old. The four-year-old drops in class and the yard and jockey both have solid records here.
Thunder WonderKTB Fit 43/100
Thunder Wonder is a fair performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, most recently finishing a close third at this trip. He has run just once at Goodwood and placed once from six starts on good to firm ground so the surface should be fine. The four-year-old has the yard with a solid 11% strike rate here.
AlcarazKTB Fit 42/100
Alcaraz is a fair performer who ran well on his last two starts last season before a modest return over 1m2f. He drops back to a trip he has won at from just one try, though he is 0-2 on good to firm and has no experience at Goodwood. The seven-year-old steps up in class and the jockey is still seeking his first winner from nine rides at the track.
First AmbitionKTB Fit 35/100
First Ambition is a fair performer whose recent form has been modest with three placed efforts from nine starts this year. He steps up in trip for the first time today which poses a fresh question while he remains unproven on good to firm ground. The five-year-old steps up in class and the trainer has only three runs at Goodwood so far.
KTB verdict
Crest Of Fire is the KTB Selection. The three-year-old has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts and the trainer and jockey have solid records at Goodwood. While the step up in trip and wide draw in stall 14 pose questions, he has the ability to overcome those. The main dangers are Alpha Crucis, who has won three times from seven starts at Goodwood and now tries first-time headgear dropping in class, and Nostrum, who has a solid record on good to firm and also tries headgear while dropping in class. Ammes and Boyfriend add further depth having both shown placed form at the track.
KTB Selection Crest Of Fire
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Goodwood. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Goodwood racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won three times from seven starts at Goodwood?
Alpha Crucis
How many wins has the trainer of Crest Of Fire had from 77 runs at Goodwood?
14%
Which two principals are both trying first-time headgear and dropping in class?
Alpha Crucis and Nostrum
Which horse is the only one noted as usually racing prominently?
Crest Of Fire
How many runs has Spell Master won from at Goodwood?
1 from 1
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