5:20 Hamilton
This Class 6 handicap over 6f at Hamilton on soft ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers, most of whom are dropping in class. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Iris Dancer heading the numbers on 68, followed by Valentine Catcher on 57, Lumenbourg on 56, Impressor on 55 and White Umbrella on 53. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, being handy from the middle draws could prove advantageous on a stiff track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium that the race will be steadily-run and tactical. Almost every runner is a hold-up type who produces its effort late, so the key question is whether the leaders can get away with it or if the bunching in the straight will see the race decided by those coming from off the pace. Being well positioned early without using too much energy looks likely to pay in these conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Iris Dancer KTB Selection68/100
Iris Dancer is a modest performer who has won nine times at Hamilton and clearly knows her way around this track. She has placed twice from seven starts on soft ground without winning and has a solid record at today's trip with ten wins from 41 runs. The yard and jockey both have above-average strike rates here, with Tristan Davidson recording 20% at Hamilton and Rowan Scott 14%. Dropping in class from an official rating of 52 with recent form figures of 613095, she is held up and usually produces her effort late. The selection has the strongest course record in the field and the numbers point to her being the one to beat.
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2Valentine Catcher57/100
Valentine Catcher is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year without winning. He has won on soft ground and at today's trip, both useful plus points on a stiff track like Hamilton. First time here for a yard and jockey who both operate at a steady 14% strike rate on the course, the combination of Tim Easterby and David Allan carries a combined record of 987 winners from 9046 rides. Dropping in class with recent form figures of 643972, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. The soft ground and trip look to suit.
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3Lumenbourg56/100
Lumenbourg is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often. Placed on his only previous run here and drops back to a trip he has won over before, though his recent form has been patchy with figures of 031465. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Hamilton, Julie Camacho at 18% and Clifford Lee at 14%. The soft ground remains a question after just one run on it, which brought no win or place. Held up with high-confidence run-style data, he steps back into Class 6 having an official rating of 52.
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4Impressor55/100
Impressor is a limited handicapper who has won three times at Hamilton from 16 starts and also has a solid record on soft ground with four wins from 17 attempts. He steps up to 6f today having last run over 5f yet has won twice at the trip from 27 starts. The trainer and jockey both hold a 14% strike rate at the track, with Phillip Makin and Sam James combining for 11 winners from 140 rides. Recent form reads 063608 and he is held up with high-confidence data. Dropping in class, the nine-year-old brings course-winning form and an ability to handle the ground.
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5White Umbrella53/100
White Umbrella is a limited horse who has been a regular in this grade yet still only wins occasionally. Has placed on soft ground before and won at today's trip but showed little when sixth of seven on his only visit to Hamilton. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track, Christopher Kellett at 13% and Paul Mulrennan at 14%. Recent form of 084817 shows an ability to pop up but also plenty of modest efforts. Held up with high-confidence run-style data, he drops in class with an official rating of 49.
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6Mount Ruapehu52/100
Mount Ruapehu is a limited performer who has been consistent without winning lately and showed his best effort here when second over this trip last season. He acts on soft ground and has won five times at today's distance, though his recent form has been modest with figures of 666488. Trainer Iain Jardine has a solid 12% strike rate at Hamilton while jockey Jack Nicholls is operating above expectations with a 25% record at the track.
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7Edgewater Drive51/100
Edgewater Drive is a modest performer who has won three times on soft ground from five starts and also has two wins at today's 6f trip. Dropping back from 7f should suit but he was only fourth of six when he tried this track as a 4-year-old. Trainer Wilf Storey has a 5% strike rate here from 145 runs while jockey Greg Fairley records 12% from 190 rides. Recent form reads 14318-.
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8Camera Shy50/100
Camera Shy is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and ran to form when fifth at Redcar last time. Has won over today's trip but showed little on his one run on soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Hamilton though the yard's figures are a touch below par for the volume of runners. Recent form reads 417645 and he drops in class.
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9Men Of Honour48/100
Men Of Honour is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He is unproven on soft ground having never run on it and is now making his first appearance at Hamilton. The trip looks about right having run seven times over it without success. Recent form reads -99695 and he drops in class.
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10Lesley's Boy47/100
Lesley's Boy is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and ran no sort of race when last seen. Has won at today's trip but showed little on his only previous start here and has failed to place on soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have established records at Hamilton but neither figure stands out. Recent form reads 3-0588.
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11Big Apple Jack43/100
Big Apple Jack has shown fair consistency in recent runs with a string of placed efforts yet remains a limited performer who has never won. He drops back to 6f having placed at the trip before and tries first-time headgear while making his debut at Hamilton. The yard and jockey both hold an 11% strike rate here but he is unproven on soft ground. Recent form reads 842542.
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12Doon The Glen38/100
Doon The Glen is a limited performer on balance but has shown enough at this track with two wins from nine runs here. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before, though his sole soft-ground effort brought no reward. The yard has a modest 10% strike rate at Hamilton while the claiming jockey is operating at a 6% rate from small numbers. Recent form reads 718755.
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13Summerstorms Dream38/100
Summerstorms Dream is a limited performer who has shown little impact in three runs at Hamilton. The step up to 6f looks a fair question after recent 5f runs and she has placed once at today's trip without winning. Trainer Jim Goldie holds a 10% strike rate here from a big sample while Lauren Young has a solid 14% from her 59 rides at the track, though the filly remains unproven on soft ground. Recent form reads 772663.
KTB verdict
Iris Dancer stands out as the KTB Selection. A modest performer with nine wins at Hamilton, she knows the track inside out, drops in class, and has placed on soft ground. The combination of yard and jockey with above-average records at the venue adds further strength to her claims, as does her solid record at the trip. The main dangers are likely to come from Valentine Catcher, who brings soft-ground and trip-winning form, and Lumenbourg, who has placed here before. Impressor cannot be entirely dismissed given his course and soft-ground record, but Iris Dancer has the strongest overall profile.
KTB Selection Iris Dancer
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hamilton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Hamilton?
Iris Dancer has won here nine times from 27 starts.
How many runners are dropping in class?
Six runners are dropping in class: Iris Dancer, Valentine Catcher, Lumenbourg, Edgewater Drive, Camera Shy and Men Of Honour.
Which horse has the strongest soft-ground record?
Edgewater Drive has three wins from five starts on soft ground.
What is the trainer strike rate at Hamilton for the yard of the selection?
Tristan Davidson has a 20% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.25 from 89 runs.
Which horses have first-time headgear or wind operations?
Big Apple Jack is the only horse wearing first-time headgear; there are no wind operations.
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