5:20 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 nursery handicap over 6f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a dozen two-year-olds, most of whom are still modestly rated and unproven on the surface. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals separated by only five points, underlining how little separates the field on known form. Most runners are stepping up from 5f, several are wearing headgear for the first time, and the majority remain without a previous run at the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only medium confidence, as there is thin evidence of an obvious front-runner in the field. Beach Ahead is the only horse with early-pace tendencies and could attempt to make it from stall five, but the bulk of the field – including the top five in the KTB rankings – are held-up types who produce their efforts late. This raises the key question of whether enough pace will be injected early to allow the closers a fair chance to be seen to best effect on what is often a speed-favouring surface at the track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tallahassee Lassie KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who showed her best when winning a 5f maiden here last time.
- 2Pageant Girl57/100Modest performer who has already shown her best at this trip with a win and a placing from three attempts.
- 3Kochella56/100Modest performer who has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing third on debut before two lesser efforts.
- 4Invincible Isaac53/100Modest 2yo with a string of ordinary efforts and no win or place from five starts.
- 5Nascent Star52/100Nascent Star has shown modest form in three starts so far, finishing no better than fourth.
- 6Its A Ginger Thing50/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing eighth of ten on debut then well beaten in two nurseries.
- 7Crowned49/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in two starts, finishing third then fourth.
- 8Najmet Minzaal48/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three runs at 5f so far.
- 9Beach Ahead45/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in two starts over 5f.
- 10Secret Rival44/100Secret Rival is a modest 2-year-old who has shown only modest form in three starts to date, finishing no closer than seventh.
- 11Trust Yourself44/100Modest 2yo who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing sixth or worse each time.
- 12Time And Effort40/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his two starts at this trip, finishing runner-up on the second of them.
The contenders
Tallahassee Lassie KTB Fit 57/100
Tallahassee Lassie is a modest performer who showed her best when winning a 5f maiden here last time. She steps up to 6f for the first time today, a trip she has tried once without success, and that leaves a question mark. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Kempton, with the trainer operating at 17% strike rate from 1064 runs and Oisin Murphy posting 18% from 1410 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall seven. Recent form figures of 6531 include that most recent success and she comes into this nursery off the back of it. Going remains unproven on standard to slow.
Pageant Girl KTB Fit 57/100
Pageant Girl is a modest performer who has already shown her best at this trip with a win and a placing from three attempts. First-time headgear is now reached after a string of lesser efforts and she is drawn wide in stall 9. Trainer James Owen has a solid 16% strike rate at Kempton from 100 runs while Luke Morris is a regular here with a 9% record from 3357 rides. She drops in class having posted recent form figures of 71875. The combination of the new headgear and the drop in grade offers some hope, though the wide draw is far from ideal on this surface. Going is unproven on standard to slow.
Kochella KTB Fit 56/100
Kochella is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing third on debut before two lesser efforts. Steps up from 5f to 6f today having already tried the trip twice without success. Trainer has no previous runners at Kempton while jockey David Egan holds a solid 12% strike rate from 547 rides here. Usually held up and producing effort late on limited evidence, she is drawn in stall one which could be an advantage if the race develops as expected. Recent form figures read 306 and she drops in class. Going remains unproven on standard to slow.
Invincible Isaac KTB Fit 53/100
Invincible Isaac is a modest 2yo with a string of ordinary efforts and no win or place from five starts. Has already been tried over this trip three times without success and finished ninth on his only previous run here. First-time headgear is now reached for while the yard continue in reasonable form at this track with a 23% strike rate from 22 runs. Usually held up and producing effort late, he is drawn in stall six. Jockey Rossa Ryan has a 14% strike rate at Kempton from 851 rides. Recent form figures are 04956 and he drops in class.
Nascent Star KTB Fit 52/100
Nascent Star has shown modest form in three starts so far, finishing no better than fourth. The step up from 5f to 6f today asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced colt. Trainer Hugo Palmer has a solid 15% strike rate at Kempton from 468 runs while jockey Robert Havlin sits on an 11% strike rate from 1624 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing effort late, he is drawn in stall four. Recent form figures read 440 and he drops in class. Going is unproven on standard to slow.
The rest of the field
Its A Ginger ThingKTB Fit 50/100
Its A Ginger Thing is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing eighth of ten on debut then well beaten in two nurseries. Steps up from 5f to 6f today having already tried the trip twice without success. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Kempton but this one still has plenty to prove.
CrownedKTB Fit 49/100
Crowned is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in two starts, finishing third then fourth. Trainer has a poor record at Kempton with no wins from 23 runners here. Jockey is the main positive with a strong 41% strike rate at the track. Trip remains a question as this is only his second attempt at 6f.
Najmet MinzaalKTB Fit 48/100
Najmet Minzaal is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three runs at 5f so far. Steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Jack Channon has an 8% strike rate from 64 runs at Kempton while Callum Rodriguez is operating at 18% from 44 rides here.
Beach AheadKTB Fit 45/100
Beach Ahead is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in two starts over 5f. Steps up to 6f for the first time today while wearing headgear for the first time, so this is very much an unknown. Trainer's modest record at the track continues to limit expectations.
Secret RivalKTB Fit 44/100
Secret Rival is a modest 2-year-old who has shown only modest form in three starts to date, finishing no closer than seventh. He steps up from 5f to 6f today, a trip he has tried once without success, while the wide draw in stall 11 adds to the challenge on this standard-to-slow surface.
Trust YourselfKTB Fit 44/100
Trust Yourself is a modest 2yo who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing sixth or worse each time. Steps up to 6f today having looked stretched at 5f last time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Kempton but this one still has a lot to prove from stall 12.
Time And EffortKTB Fit 40/100
Time And Effort is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his two starts at this trip, finishing runner-up on the second of them. Drawn widest of all today and the yard's modest record at the track offers little encouragement. Silvestre De Sousa brings above-average strike-rate here though the colt still has questions to answer.
KTB verdict
Tallahassee Lassie is the KTB Selection. She showed her best when winning a 5f maiden here last time and brings solid recent form into this nursery, with the yard and jockey combination holding strong records at the track. The step up to 6f does leave a question mark having tried the trip once without success, yet her late-run style could be well suited if the tentative pace materialises as expected. Main dangers are Pageant Girl, who has shown her best at this trip and now tries first-time headgear while dropping in class, and Kochella, who is well drawn in stall one and also steps up in trip while dropping in grade.
KTB Selection Tallahassee Lassie
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Tallahassee Lassie the selection despite the step up to 6f?
She showed her best when winning a 5f maiden here last time, the yard and jockey both have solid records at Kempton, and her held-up run style could suit the tentative pace shape.
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Beach Ahead tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence.
How many of the top five principals are dropping in class?
Four of the top five principals – Pageant Girl, Kochella, Invincible Isaac and Nascent Star – are dropping in class.
What is the strongest jockey record at Kempton among the field?
Colin Keane has a 41% strike rate at Kempton from 17 rides when riding Crowned.
Which horse has already shown its best form at 6f?
Pageant Girl has already shown her best at this trip with a win and a placing from three attempts.
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