5:20 Thirsk
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum trip at Thirsk on good ground brings together an eleven-strong field of largely modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Knicks and Westgate Warrior sharing a 55 score, followed closely by Dandy Dinmont on 52, Irish Dancer on 48 and Dc Cogent on 47. Several hold course form, though the overall standard is modest and recent form is mixed across the board.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even breakdown with several horses capable of taking a hand early. Irish Dancer, Dc Cogent and Albegone are all likely to be forward, while Blue Lakota from stall one and Dandy Dinmont from three could also be handy. The key question is whether the inside draw bias often seen at Thirsk will prove decisive, or whether those drawn middle to high like the selection can overcome that.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Knicks55/100Modest performer who has been placed on good ground and at this trip but looks nothing special on the balance of his form.
- 2Westgate Warrior KTB Selection55/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts.
- 3Dandy Dinmont52/100Modest performer who has won once from three runs at Thirsk and also has four wins from 35 starts at this trip.
- 4Irish Dancer48/100Irish Dancer is a limited performer who has run 35 times in the last year yet still shows consistency with a recent string of 227318.
- 5Dc Cogent47/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often.
- 6Albegone46/100Limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely wins.
- 7Midnight Lir46/100Modest performer who has been placed on all three starts at Thirsk without winning.
- 8Blue Lakota46/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little spark when sixth of eight over course and distance on his only previous visit here.
- 9Crocus Time45/100Modest performer who has won once from five runs at Thirsk and has two wins from three starts at this trip.
- 10Startling43/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough to place on his only visit to Thirsk and has shown he can be competitive on good ground.
- 11Invincible Crown37/100Limited horse who has won three times at this trip but looks exposed after 27 runs and has failed to place in three starts at Thirsk.
The contenders
Knicks KTB Fit 55/100
Knicks is a modest performer who has been placed on good ground and at this trip but looks nothing special on the balance of his form. He has only run once at Thirsk, finishing unplaced, while both the Michael and David Easterby yard and Joanna Mason operate at a 9% strike rate here from large samples. The trainer's record at the track reads 9% with an A/E of 0.94 from 107 runs and the jockey's is 9% with an A/E of 0.9 from 144 rides. His recent form of 9-6753 includes a third on his latest start yet he is drawn wide in stall 11, which adds to the negatives on a track where the inside is often favoured.
Westgate Warrior KTB Fit 55/100
Westgate Warrior is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts. He has won over this trip and handles good ground, recording one win from three starts on it with two places, though his record at Thirsk is poor from a single run when he finished 11th. Dropping in class looks a positive. The Roy Bowring yard has a modest 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.72 from 138 runs, but this is offset by Alistair Rawlinson's solid 13% record at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.3 from 68 rides. His recent form reads 42-728.
Dandy Dinmont KTB Fit 52/100
Dandy Dinmont is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Thirsk and also has four wins from 35 starts at this trip. Recent form is mixed with a Thirsk success in between two poor efforts and he has only won once from 13 starts on good ground. He has the benefit of a low draw in stall three which could be an advantage. The Nigel Tinkler yard has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.7 from 614 runs and Alex Jary rides with a 6% strike rate and A/E of 0.82 from 36 rides here. His recent form figures read -05710.
Irish Dancer KTB Fit 48/100
Irish Dancer is a limited performer who has run 35 times in the last year yet still shows consistency with a recent string of 227318. He has won over this trip and at Thirsk itself from six visits so the track and distance look suitable on good ground where he is two from ten with four places. The Declan Carroll yard has a 9% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.91 from 444 runs and Zak Wheatley rides with a 10% strike rate and A/E of 0.95 from 60 rides. Drawn in stall two, he is likely to be forward.
Dc Cogent KTB Fit 47/100
Dc Cogent is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often. He has placed on good ground and scored once over this trip though the recent form figures of 644368 show no real spark. Dropping in class is a positive. The Bryan Smart yard has an 8% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 0.76 from 419 runs while Ben Robinson has a 5% strike rate with an A/E of 0.6 from 171 rides. He was only fourth of seven when he tried the track before and is drawn in stall five.
The rest of the field
AlbegoneKTB Fit 46/100
Albegone is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely wins. He has placed a few times at Thirsk without winning and his record on good ground is modest with just one success from 19 starts. The Tim Easterby yard and David Allan both have below-average strike rates here.
Midnight LirKTB Fit 46/100
Midnight Lir is a modest performer who has been placed on all three starts at Thirsk without winning. He has shown some spark on his last two runs and acts on good ground having been placed twice from seven attempts. The Michael Dods yard and Connor Beasley both operate at a 10% strike rate here which is in line with expectations.
Blue LakotaKTB Fit 46/100
Blue Lakota is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little spark when sixth of eight over course and distance on his only previous visit here. He has won twice at this trip but his record on good ground is poor with no win or place from three starts and the draw in stall one could prove tricky. The Kevin Ryan yard and Oisin McSweeney both have solid enough records at Thirsk.
Crocus TimeKTB Fit 45/100
Crocus Time is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at Thirsk and has two wins from three starts at this trip. He drops back to 5f today after his last run over 5½f and his recent form of 13-011 shows he is competitive at this level. The Ron Barr yard's modest 3% strike rate from 221 runs at the track is a negative while the jockey's 7% from 15 rides adds little encouragement.
StartlingKTB Fit 43/100
Startling is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place on his only visit to Thirsk and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. He has won four times at this trip from 22 starts yet his recent form has been patchy and the yard’s poor 3% strike-rate at the track is a concern. Gianluca Sanna’s 7% record from 15 rides here offers a bit of hope but overall this looks like a limited option at best.
Invincible CrownKTB Fit 37/100
Invincible Crown is a limited horse who has won three times at this trip but looks exposed after 27 runs and has failed to place in three starts at Thirsk. Ruth Carr’s 8% strike rate from 551 runs here is modest while William Pyle’s 12% from 50 rides is slightly better than par. He is placed once from five starts on good ground and is drawn widest of all today.
KTB verdict
Westgate Warrior is the KTB Selection. He has shown bits of form this year, has won over the trip and handles good ground, while the solid record of Alistair Rawlinson at the track helps offset the yard's modest course stats and the drop in class is another plus. His main dangers are the course winners Dandy Dinmont and Irish Dancer, both of whom have shown enough at this level and have suitable draws, along with the consistent but limited Knicks who is well fancied in the market. Crocus Time and Albegone are others with place claims on their best efforts.
KTB Selection Westgate Warrior
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses have previous winning form at Thirsk?
Dandy Dinmont has won once from three runs at Thirsk, Irish Dancer has won here from six visits, Crocus Time has won once from five runs at Thirsk and Startling has placed on his only visit.
How many horses are dropping in class?
Westgate Warrior, Dc Cogent, Blue Lakota and Startling are all dropping in class.
Which runners are likely to be prominent early?
Irish Dancer, Dc Cogent and Albegone are all likely to be forward, while Blue Lakota from stall one and Dandy Dinmont from three could also be handy.
What are the course strike rates for the trainers of the top three in the KTB Fit ratings?
Michael and David Easterby have a 9% strike rate at Thirsk, Roy Bowring has a 7% strike rate at Thirsk and Nigel Tinkler has a 6% strike rate at Thirsk.
Which horse has the best recent form figures among the principals?
Irish Dancer has the recent string of 227318 which demonstrates consistency.
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