5:20 Yarmouth
This Class 6 classified stakes over a mile at Yarmouth on good to soft ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers where the KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but unspectacular affair. Heer's Sadie tops the ratings on 66 with three course wins to her name, while Desert Charm, Very Demure, Al Baahy and Lowestoft follow closely in the 56-60 range. The official figures are tightly bunched with RPRs from 51 to 63, underlining the modest level, and the race is likely to hinge on how the prominent and held-up runners cope with the step up in trip for several.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in what should prove a fair test. Contemplation is the most obvious front-runner from stall 13, while Very Demure, Girls Allowed, Shaws Phoenix and Nicely Curved are all prominent runners who will look to race handily. The remainder, headed by the selection Heer's Sadie, are largely held up and will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace, raising the key question of whether the leaders will overdo it or if the closers can time their runs effectively on this track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Heer's Sadie KTB Selection66/100Modest performer who has won three times at this track from 14 runs and steps up in trip today having scored once over this distance in the past.
- 2Desert Charm60/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when third on return at this track over 7f.
- 3Very Demure59/100Limited performer who has shown some spark on this track, finishing second over the course and distance in a handicap two starts back when in first-time cheekpi…
- 4Al Baahy56/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately and arrives with a recent string of placed efforts at this trip.
- 5Lowestoft56/100Limited performer who showed a bit more when fourth on stable debut at Southwell last time.
- 6Harry Don't Bite55/100Harry Don't Bite has shown very little in five runs to date with a recent form string of 79967 and an RPR of just 52 that marks him as limited.
- 7Girls Allowed54/100Girls Allowed showed some improvement when fourth on her handicap debut at Leicester last time having been well held in three prior starts.
- 8Shaws Phoenix50/100Modest performer who has been placed twice over this trip without winning.
- 9Lady Of Clover49/100Limited filly who has shown enough to win a weak Wolverhampton classified event last week.
- 10Caitlin G43/100Limited filly who has shown very little in five starts to date and arrives here with a career-low RPR of 43.
- 11Nicely Curved40/100Nicely Curved has shown little in four runs and sits right at the bottom of the handicap on an RPR of 55 which marks him as limited.
- 12Contemplation40/100Contemplation is a limited maiden with an RPR of 56 and recent form that has been no better than modest.
- 13Rockafeller Skank36/100Limited performer who showed very little in three runs last autumn, finishing last each time with a best RPR of just 25.
The contenders
Heer's Sadie KTB Fit 66/100
Heer's Sadie is the KTB Selection and a modest performer who has won three times at this track from 14 runs. She steps up in trip today having scored once over this distance in the past. Recent form has been patchy and she showed little on her return six days ago while the lack of any placing on good to soft ground from seven attempts is a clear negative. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate here from 30 runs and the jockey boasts a 22% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 1.86 from 23 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late from draw 6, she arrives with an RPR of 61 and recent form figures of 8645-6.
Desert Charm KTB Fit 60/100
Desert Charm is a modest performer who showed a bit more when third on return at this track over 7f. He steps up to 1m today having won at the distance in the past though the switch to good to soft ground is an unknown. The trainer and jockey both have solid records here with the yard at 15% strike rate from 82 runs and the rider at 16% from 50 rides, while their combined record reads 7/37 with an A/E of 1.83. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 7, he has an RPR of 63 and recent form figures of 4896-3.
Very Demure KTB Fit 59/100
Very Demure is a limited performer who has shown some spark on this track, finishing second over the course and distance in a handicap two starts back when in first-time cheekpieces. She has been placed once at today's trip from five attempts but lacks a win and her recent form has been patchy with a seventh last time. First-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces now while the yard's 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from 118 runs offers some encouragement and the jockey has a 33% strike rate from three rides here. Usually races handily from draw 11, she has an RPR of 59 and recent form figures of -65327.
Al Baahy KTB Fit 56/100
Al Baahy is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately and arrives with a recent string of placed efforts at this trip. He has shown some ability on good to soft ground with two places from six runs and his lone run here produced a respectable fourth. The trainer operates at a steady 9% strike rate at Yarmouth from 44 runs while the jockey has a 16% strike rate from 416 rides here, and their combined record stands at 28/179 with an A/E of 1.18. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a wide draw in stall 10, he has an RPR of 63 and recent form figures of 587855.
Lowestoft KTB Fit 56/100
Lowestoft is a limited performer who showed a bit more when fourth on stable debut at Southwell last time. He steps up to 1m today having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at the trip. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 22 runs at Yarmouth and the jockey has a 20% strike rate from five rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 12, he has an RPR of 51 and recent form figures of 86-694.
The rest of the field
Harry Don't BiteKTB Fit 55/100
Harry Don't Bite has shown very little in five runs to date with a recent form string of 79967 and an RPR of just 52 that marks him as limited. He has been beaten a long way on both starts at this trip and the switch to turf is another unknown given the small sample on any surface, though stall one could be some help at a modest level.
Girls AllowedKTB Fit 54/100
Girls Allowed showed some improvement when fourth on her handicap debut at Leicester last time having been well held in three prior starts. She steps up to an untested 1m today which asks a fresh question while her limited ability is reflected by an RPR of 55, and the yard has a 17% strike rate from 30 runs at Yarmouth though the filly was only sixth when she ran here on debut.
Shaws PhoenixKTB Fit 50/100
Shaws Phoenix is a modest performer who has been placed twice over this trip without winning. He has a solid course record at Yarmouth with two seconds from five runs though he showed little on his latest visit here, while the trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at the track and he has only run once on good to soft ground.
Lady Of CloverKTB Fit 49/100
Lady Of Clover is a limited filly who has shown enough to win a weak Wolverhampton classified event last week. She has placed over C&D on her only previous visit here and has won at today's trip, though both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Yarmouth.
Caitlin GKTB Fit 43/100
Caitlin G is a limited filly who has shown very little in five starts to date and arrives here with a career-low RPR of 43. She steps up markedly in trip for the first time while wearing first-time headgear which at least asks a new question, and the trainer has an 8% strike rate from 51 runs at Yarmouth.
Nicely CurvedKTB Fit 40/100
Nicely Curved has shown little in four runs and sits right at the bottom of the handicap on an RPR of 55 which marks him as limited. He drops back from 2m to 1m where he has been placed once in two starts but the small sample makes that hard to bank on, while the yard is 0-5 at Yarmouth.
ContemplationKTB Fit 40/100
Contemplation is a limited maiden with an RPR of 56 and recent form that has been no better than modest. Dropping back to 1m looks a reasonable move after two runs over 1m2f but he has already been beaten three times at today's trip, and the trainer has only had two runners at Yarmouth.
Rockafeller SkankKTB Fit 36/100
Rockafeller Skank is a limited performer who showed very little in three runs last autumn, finishing last each time with a best RPR of just 25. He has been gelded since and now steps up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question, while the trainer has a solid 16% strike rate at Yarmouth from 110 runs.
KTB verdict
Heer's Sadie is the KTB Selection in a race where the numbers suggest she can capitalise on her course record of three wins from 14 starts. Her ability to handle the step up to this trip, having scored over the distance before, combined with the trainer's solid 17% strike rate at Yarmouth, gives her the strongest profile despite patchy recent form and the going concern. The main dangers are Desert Charm, who showed more on his return and has a good course record, and Very Demure, who has spark at this venue and now tries first-time blinkers.
KTB Selection Heer's Sadie
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Yarmouth?
Heer's Sadie has won three times at this track from 14 runs.
How does the race's pace shape influence the prominent runners?
A genuinely run pace with a front-runner pressed by several handy types should provide a fair test for prominent runners such as Very Demure, Girls Allowed, Shaws Phoenix, Nicely Curved and Contemplation.
What ground concerns exist for the leading fancies?
Heer's Sadie has no win or place from seven runs on good to soft, Desert Charm is unproven on the ground, and Very Demure is also unproven on good to soft.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Yarmouth in this field?
Julia & Shelley Birkett have a 17% strike rate at Yarmouth from 30 runs, while Richard Spencer has 16% from 110 runs.
What trip questions are being asked of the three-year-olds?
Very Demure has been placed once at the trip from five attempts but lacks a win, Girls Allowed steps up to an untested 1m, Lowestoft has failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at the trip, Caitlin G steps up markedly in trip, and Contemplation drops back to 1m having been beaten three times at the distance.
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